Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Moonlight Gal likely to move forward second off the layoff
Aqueduct | Race 1 | Post Time 1:10 p.m. (ET)
The likely favorites in this $50,000 claiming race all have their flaws. Smokin' Hot Kitty (#3) is the best horse in this race when she's in top form, but it's hard to know what to expect from her after she never ran a step off the layoff at Laurel last time. She had been similarly disappointing when last seen at Saratoga prior to the layoff, and now she drops in for a tag for the first time in nearly two years. Perhaps she rebounds here, but I wouldn't want to take a short price on that prospect.
Royal Bobbie (#1) is more consistent, but her starting-gate antics make her tough to trust. She breaks slowly in nearly every race, and it often puts her iat a disadvantage right from the start. I don't mind her cutting back slightly to a mile, and the longer run to a turn may give her more time to regain position if she breaks poorly again. I just don't want to bet her at a short price.
Grace and Grit (#2) is similarly frustrating, since she's a difficult filly to ride. She has talent, but she struggles to finish when used too aggressively early in her races. Recently, Linda Rice has changed her style to reserve her off the pace and rally, but even then she can be hard to maneuver and is prone to trouble. However, I am intrigued by the switch to Amelia Green, whose barn has been on a strong run lately.
I'll try to beat these favorites with Moonlight Gal (#4). I know she looks pretty light on speed figures, but remember that most of those numbers were earned during and just beyond her 2-year-old season. She returned from a near-yearlong layoff last time and ran a respectable race, achieving a new 82 TimeformUS Speed Figure top despite going a distance that seemed too short for her. She ran best going a mile in her second career start and now gets to stretch back out to that distance on dirt for the first time since then. She's better than she looks overall and can outrun her odds.