Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Mission Beach should benefit from turnback in Bay Shore
Aqueduct | Race 9 | Post Time 3:30 p.m. (ET)
Maximus Meridius (#4) looks like the horse to beat based on his game fourth-place finish in the Gotham last time out. It’s unclear if he really wants to run as far as a mile, and he battled on with determination through the stretch after coming under pressure at the quarter pole. The top three runners in that race would all be strong favorites against a field like this, so he’s getting significant class relief as he drops into this listed stakes. Turning back to seven furlongs suits him, and Butch Reid is always dangerous when he ships to the NYRA circuit.
Chad Brown has entered a pair of recent maiden winners, from which Proprietary Trade (#7) will surely attract more support. He ran like a horse who needed his debut race at Gulfstream, but he was much more professional last time, showing improved speed before drawing off with authority. However, he was competing over a muddy track that was kind to early speed, and he also got away with slow fractions. That’s unlikely to be the case this time as he lands in a race that features plenty of other speed.
Between the Brown runners, I’m more interested in Reasoned Analysis (#6). He’s steadily turning back in distance after failing to handle 1 1/8 miles in his second start. Getting back to one turn last time seemed to suit him, as he showed improved tactical speed and gamely held off a late challenger. He showed the ability to rally from farther off the pace on debut, so I don’t think this further turnback to seven furlongs should hinder him. He has to get a little faster, but he’s going to be a better price.
My top pick is Mission Beach (#1). He’s another who wanted no part of 1 1/8 miles when he tried it in the Withers last time. He also was compromised by a slow start that day, always racing out of position. Furthermore, he was never on the rail over a track that was favoring horses who rode the inside path. I did like his return from the layoff two back when he made a visually impressive rally to win going six furlongs at Laurel. He had shown ability as a 2-year-old, winning his debut for Bob Baffert before finishing a deceptively strong fifth in the Hopeful after contesting a fast pace. I like that he’s learned to rate since coming to the Brittany Russell barn, and he figures to get the right setup in the Bay Shore.