Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Mighty Atlas can step forward second off the layoff
Aqueduct | Race 3 | Post Time 2:23 p.m. (ET)
Linda Rice holds a strong hand in this starter-allowance event, sending out two of the main contenders. Fighting Back (#5) could vie for favoritism as he returns from a layoff to make his first start off the claim. Rice did claim this horse from Brad Cox, who ran him for a tag in all three prior starts. Yet this colt was a homebred for the prior connections and obviously wasn’t ready to deliver on debut. He progressed with each start and broke his maiden impressively when last seen at Churchill Downs in September, though he wasn’t facing much that day. Now he’s been off since the claim, but Rice needs to orchestrate some kind of layoff for her Kentucky claims with new rules around claiming from out of state. That said, over five years Rice is just 3 for 21 (14%, $1.13 ROI) first off the claim off a layoff of 150 to 300 days.
Rice’s other horse Debate (#3) seems a bit more trustworthy. He also returned from a layoff off a claim last time and ran like one who probably needed the start. He was sluggish through the early stages but got rolling belatedly in the six-furlong affair. Now he stretches out, and he has handled longer distances in the past. This seems like a more appropriate spot for him if he can get back to his better efforts.
A couple of runners in this field exit the March 15 race at this level. Assume Nothing (#4) got away with slow early fractions up front but was still run down by a deep closer. I didn’t think he had much of an excuse, but at least he finally put good races back to back for Horacio De Paz.
My top pick is Mighty Atlas (#6), who finished fourth in that March 15 affair. He was sitting on top of the slow fractions, but that’s not really his style. Sensing a lack of pace, Trevor McCarthy used him to get forward position that day, but he’s typically been more of a closing type. Mighty Atlas also lost some momentum in the stretch when the eventual third-place finisher lugged in on him at the eighth pole. I think he can do better with a slight change in tactics here. He shows a couple of improved workouts since his return race. Furthermore, Mike Maker is 38 for 159 (24%, $2.19 ROI) second off a layoff of 150 to 300 days over the past five years.