Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Maiden Tiarella fits against stakes foes in Ruthless

Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:22 p.m. (ET)

I didn’t pick morning-line favorite Ghalia Princess (#1) on top, believing there’s better value on another, but I do view her as the horse to beat in this Ruthless. This homebred filly wasn't the most hyped firster on debut at Fair Grounds. There were stories about others being live, including the Steve Asmussen-trained runner-up, who delivered a terrific effort. Ghalia Princess simply ran that rival down and got a good education in the process. She was a bit keen at a couple of points on the turn, but was kept under wraps until the quarter pole and was game to wear down the leader once produced in the stretch. The race came up reasonably fast, and she has a license to move forward. Brad Cox is a remarkable 21 for 55 (38 percent, $2.53 ROI) with debut winners making their second starts in dirt sprints over the last five years, and he’s 9 for 19 (47 percent, $2.55 ROI) in stakes within that sample.

Many will perceive her main rival to be the other shipper Halina’s Forte (#4). She started off her career in impressive fashion, winning her debut leading throughout as a heavy favorite. I liked the way she rated kindly and sliced between horses to lead in midstretch in that stakes two back. Yet she couldn't see out the last half-furlong, getting caught from the inside by favored Youalmosthadme. While it might appear that she regressed last time out at Fair Grounds, her TimeformUS Speed Figure actually improved, due to the fast pace. She also didn’t get the most comfortable trip, having trouble securing a clear path in upper stretch. She has ability, but I am a little concerned about her stretching out to seven furlongs.

I have similar reservations about Reconcile (#2), who also figures to attract support here. She was the rare Linda Rice firster who was ready to fire on debut, and she followed that up with a similarly strong performance last time at Laurel. She was simply second best that day as the winner snuck up her inside despite Reconcile’s rider attempting to intimidate that foe. Now she attempts to stretch out as the inside speed.



My top pick is the lone maiden taking on winners, Tiarella (#3). This filly settled for second in her debut last month, but displayed some promising qualities in that start. She showed good early speed to contest a fast pace while racing three wide, took over in midstretch as if on her way to victory, and just got run down late by a more experienced rival. However, Tiarella didn’t just throw in the towel, she tried to battle back despite racing against the flow. Her pace-upgraded 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes her among the fastest horses in here, and the form of that race was flattered when third-place finisher Daughter of Time came back to win, improving by 5 points. She has to get an extra furlong here, but she has the size and scope to suggest this distance should be within her ideal range.