Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Kreesa should get better pace setup
Belmont at the Big A | Race 8 | Post Time 4:11 p.m. (ET)
Instamatic (#1) would be the horse to beat in this first level allowance all on his own, but his price could dip even lower if entrymate Big Prankster (#1A) draws in from the AE list. Both are strong contenders in this 6-furlong affair, though I would give preference to Instamatic. This Danny Gargan trainee drew much better towards the inside as he steps up against winners for the first time. He was mildly disappointing after attracting support in all three starts last season, but just looked like a horse who had put it all together in his return from the layoff last time. Making his first start as a new gelding and with Lasix, he rallied strongly to a decisive victory. A repeat of that performance makes him dangerous.
The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace with multiple speeds signed on. Yet even with plenty of pace signed on, it’s hard to see anyone outrunning Heymackit’sjack (#3) to the lead if he breaks cleanly. I’m not sure exactly what to expect from this horse as he returns from layoff that has lasted over a year. Yet he’s capable of running some fast speed figures when he’s in form, and he produced one of his better races off a layoff when he returned in Jan. 2023. He’s working well for new trainer Jamie Begg, and he’s getting a rider upgrade to Flavien Prat.
I still think there’s a chance for this race to come apart, which could help a horse like Jimmythetooth (#12). I can’t figure out why this horse was so far back early in that May 25 race, since he had shown better tactical speed in all of his prior starts. Perhaps he was just a little dull coming off the layoff, and he did stay on decently to pass tired rivals in a race that didn’t feature much pace.
Yet if I’m considering him, I have to upgrade Kreesa (#2) at a much bigger price as he exits the same race. This 5-year-old gelding has had more chances than some others, but he’s also run some races that make him competitive at this level. Last time out in that May 25 affair, he also was outrun through the early stages behind moderate fractions in a forwardly-dominated race. Yet whereas Manny Franco was all over Jimmythetooth trying to make up ground late, Jose Gomez was barely asking Kreesa as he just coasted through the stretch. I don’t think this horse was ever hitting the board that day, but the lack of effort makes the race look worse than it was. Now he gets a rider switch to Romero Maragh, and he drew well in a race that features plenty of pace to set up his late run.