Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Hagrid’s Flame in top form since switch to Ness

Aqueduct | Race 9 | Post Time 4:49 p.m. (ET)

Quick to Accuse (#8) is obviously the horse to beat as he drops back in to face New York-breds after running reasonably well in a few attempts against open first-level allowance competition. He had obviously improved a lot upon the trainer switch to Brad Cox last year around this time, but his form tailed off a bit into the second half of the years. His performances have been mildly disappointing in three of his last four starts, the lone exception being an excellent runner-up effort two back which earned him a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He regressed last time, but he might have been hindered by a speed bias on Jan. 18. It’s hard for me to project much upside here, but he’s obviously a contender if he merely holds his form. I just don’t want to take a short price on a runner such as this.

Main rival Land d’Oro (#4) has been heading in the opposite direction, improving over his last few starts. He just missed at this level last time staying on gamely after appearing to lose focus in upper stretch. He still has room for improvement from that performance, but he is catching a tougher field for the level this time.

There appears to be plenty of early speed in this race, as indicated by the Fast Pace designation on the TimeformUS Pace Projector. One horse who figures to benefit from a contested battle up front is Lotsa Trouble (#6), who is looking to rebound from a poor result at this level last time. He was steadied back early and lost contact with the field into the far turn, but he was staying on late behind a superior runaway winner in a very fast race. He shouldn’t mind stretching out to a mile here, but I am mildly concerned that he’s coming into this race having last worked on Feb. 10.

My top pick is Hagrid’s Flame (#1A). I don’t typically like to endorse horses that are part of coupled entries, but this colt is clearly the stronger half of the Jamie Ness duo. It also feels like Ness may have entered his stablemate to help ensure an honest pace, since that one is a confirmed frontrunner. Hagrid’s Flame does his best running from off the pace, but I have been encouraged by his ability to show a little more early engagement since the switch into the Ness barn. He got risked for a $40k tag at Laurel last time following his Aqueduct victory, and I was struck by how strongly he traveled into the race before kicking away late under light encouragement. This horse is in the best form of his career right now, and Ness tends to do well moving horses up in class coming off wins.