Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Grande ready for class test in Wood Memorial

Aqueduct | Race 12 | Post Time 6:10 p.m. (ET)

The two horses likely to vie for favoritism in this Grade 2 Wood Memorial both drew inside post positions in a large field. The rail draw may not be an issue for California shipper Rodriguez (No. 1) if he gets to the front, but it's unclear if he's quick enough to make the lead. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is unsurprisingly predicting a fast pace and depicts three horses drawn outside possessing more natural speed than Rodriguez, so he may have to be sent aggressively by Mike Smith. I'm a little more concerned about the prospect of a fast pace for Captain Cook (No. 2), who sat perched outside off some pretty moderate fractions when he won the Withers. This horse hasn’t had to deal with kickback or traffic in either victory, and he’s likely to work out a much different trip breaking from the inside in this large field.

Sand Devil (No. 5) has already run faster than those two likely favorites, having earned a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his runner-up effort in the Gotham. I have some concerns about his ability to get this two-turn distance, but I still believe he’s among the most naturally talented horses in this field, and the price should be fair.

The horse who stands to benefit most from a contested pace is Hill Road (No. 6), who has been compromised by slow paces in both prior U.S. starts. He closed well for third in a speed-dominated Breeders' Cup Juvenile and figures to move forward from his Tampa Bay Derby return. He just has to work out a trip closing from far back in a large field. Another closer that interests me at a bigger price is Statesman (No. 11). He obviously has to get faster to upset this field, but he was very impressive overcoming some traffic to close into a slow pace when he won an allowance race at Tampa Bay Downs last time. This long-striding son of Constitution appears to be heading in the right direction for Shug McGaughey, who does get horses to improve with seasoning.

My top pick is the lightly raced Grande (No. 7), who will attempt to stay undefeated in his third career start. He has obviously beaten weaker company than he faces in this Wood Memorial, but I get the sense he will be capable of running faster when pushed by superior rivals. He breaks well and handles himself with professionalism early in his races, but he has idled a bit when making the lead in both prior starts. He has worked well since then and appears capable of another step forward. Stamina is obviously not a concern for a horse who has already won going this distance.