Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Gin Gin capable of minor upset in Busanda

Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 2:47 p.m. (ET)

There’s no denying that likely favorite Shimmering Allure (#2) will be tough to beat in the Busanda. She really hasn’t run a bad race since her career debut, and has steadily improved her speed figures in nearly every start since. She seemed to appreciate stretching out to route distances last fall, winning the Tempted on this circuit before finishing a good second in the Grade 2 Demoiselle last time. She was against the track profile that day, trying to close outside against a speed and rail bias. This demanding nine-furlong distance is obviously no problem for her. The only concern is a potential lack of pace in this small field. Though, there are a few rivals who can potentially go forward, and she showed in the Demoiselle that she can sit closer to the pace if necessary.

The only horse that I can make a legitimate case for as a potential alternative is Kentucky invader Gin Gin (#1). She wasn’t successful in either of her route attempts at Churchill. Yet both of those races came against stakes company, and she did produce the two best TimeformUS Speed Figures of her career. She was somewhat fortunate when she broke her maiden and was allowed to set a slow pace before spurting away late. She was then no match for a stablemate in the Rags to Riches, but still finished ahead of the classy V V’s Dream. Her fifth-place result in the Golden Rod might look disappointing at first glance, but she didn’t get the best ride that day. She actually broke well, but Florent Geroux seemed intent on dragging her off the pace, perhaps not wanting to engage a stablemate who set the pace. She was actually staying on well through the lane, but was never really in the mix. Now she stretches out, and it will be interesting to see how she’s ridden by Trevor McCarthy. She possesses the tactical speed to get the jump on her main rival.