Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Embraceable Gal should get better pace setup

Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:10 p.m. (ET)

Evaluation (No. 4) figures to go favored in this first-level allowance as she returns from a layoff for Chad Brown. She was professional and fast on debut, earning a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that victory. I don’t want to give her too much credit for beating the camera-shy Geopolitics, but there was a big gap behind those top two finishers. The problem with that race is that Aug. 2 at Saratoga featured a strong rail bias, and Evaluation raced inside for much of her trip before angling out in the stretch. She stepped up against winners at this level in late August and completely fell apart after chasing the pace. Now she’s gotten a freshening and looks to get back on track for a dangerous barn. I just doubt she’ll be much of a price, and I have trouble trusting a horse whose only competitive effort is a bias-aided victory.

Another thing working against the favorite is the amount of speed in this race. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace with multiple runners vying for the front end, including need-the-lead types such as Ariana Rye (No. 5) and Annieworkstoomuch (No. 6), who aren’t even shown as the quickest on the Pace Projector. I don’t want any of those front-runners, and I think it’s a real possibility that this pace could come apart.

There are a couple of late-runners to consider. One of those is Valentine Gift (No. 2), who moves up in class out of a $25K conditioned claiming victory. Last time was probably the day to have her when she got dismissed at 11-1 getting back to dirt. I do think she has some upside on this surface, but she is stepping up into a much tougher spot this time.

My top pick is Embraceable Gal (No. 3). This mare had concentrated on longer events during the early part of her career, but she turned back in distance this spring at Finger Lakes and seemed to respond well to those shorter trips. She really blossomed as a closing sprinter this summer, hitting the board in six consecutive starts at Finger Lakes before throwing in a clunker against slightly tougher in early November. She returned to the NYRA circuit last time, switching into the barn of Rob Atras, with something to prove at this class level. She was no match for impressive winner Al’s Ruby, but she was clearly second best while running deceptively well in defeat. She got off to a slow start, as is her custom, but advanced into the race under her own power and launched a wide rally into second. She made that impressive, wide run despite the fact that the pace was on the slow side. Now she figures to get a better setup and also receives an extra half-furlong.