Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Egyptian Candy should relish added ground of Jockey Club Oaks
Belmont at the Big A | Race 10 | Post Time 5:17 p.m. (ET)
Few fillies in this Jockey Club Oaks have even attempted this demanding 1 3/8-mile distance, so the fact that Lady Mary (No. 7) is Group 1 placed over the trip makes her a very strong contender. That Group 1 placing came in the German Oaks, and German group races are generally regarded as being a cut below their British or French counterparts. Yet this is hardly the strongest American graded stakes event. This filly didn’t win much overseas, but she was consistently competitive in stakes over a variety of distances. The form of the German Oaks was flattered when runner-up Spanish Eyes returned to finish a respectable fourth in the prestigious Group 1 Grosser Preis von Baden against older males. Her experience and class make Lady Mary the horse to beat.
I’m not quite as confident in Beautiful Love (No. 4), who could go off at a similar price to the morning-line favorite despite putting in a disappointing effort in her stateside debut. However, that Grade 2 Lake Placid was a much tougher spot than this one, and she was wide around the turns on a day when the rail was an advantage on the inner turf. She does have some pedigree to stretch out, but still has to prove that she can get back to some of her better efforts from Dubai over the winter.
Among the runners based in the United States, I thought Mixologist (No. 9) would be dangerous. She’s another who has to prove she can get the distance, but I like all of her prior races. She made an impressive late rally to win on debut and then got the wrong trip two back, keenly pulling her rider forward into a pace that collapsed. She rebounded last time, earning the victory via disqualification but nevertheless running well against a decent field. She goes out for a top barn but might be a fair price.
My top pick is Egyptian Candy (No. 1), who also is stretching out to this distance for the first time. She has some pedigree to go longer, since her Pioneerof the Nile dam is a half-sister to Maximum Security, a Grade 1 winner over 10 furlongs on dirt. Twirling Candy isn’t necessarily regarded as a stamina influence, but he does get 16 percent winners at distances of 1 1/4 miles and beyond. This filly has a massive stride for her frame, which is often an indicator of horses who will handle added ground. While she hasn’t yet won on turf, she’s run well in both turf starts, closing well on debut at Keeneland and then putting in a nice run from off the pace last time. That return from the layoff felt like a prep for this, and her performance suggested she had taken a step forward from last winter. These connections did ship into Aqueduct to upset the Matron Stakes with American Apple a couple of years ago and could get it done with another price here.