Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Classicist should continue his ascent against winners

Belmont at the Big A | Race 9 | Post Time 5:19 p.m. (ET)

I'm not trying to beat likely favorite Classicist (#8) as he makes his first start against winners. While his speed figures don't exactly tower over this field, the 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he achieved for his maiden victory last time is very respectable for the level. It's also worth noting that he earned a 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure during his 2-year-old season when chasing home future champion Sovereignty, so he still has room to improve now as an older horse. It looked like he relished the stretch-out to 9 furlongs last time, conquering that distance despite returning from a lengthy layoff. He had subsequently been entered in that Aug. 10 allowance race at Saratoga that a few of these exit but was a late scratch. He's worked three times since then, and appears to be tack on track for this step up in class.

Classicist isn't a horse who needs the lead, but he does have the tactical speed to get forward in a race lacking confirmed frontrunners. The Pace Projector shows him with a slight advantage through the first half-mile, and whether he attains that position depends on who aggressive Kendrick Carmouche decides to be at the start, since this race does begin close to the clubhouse turn. I'm expecting a step forward here, and Todd Pletcher tends to do well when taking this path. Over the last 5 years, Pletcher is 12 for 38 (32%, $2.35 ROI) with last-out maiden winners making their following start in an allowance race between 8.5 and 9 furlongs on dirt.

Among his main rivals is Tuscan Gold (#6), who has been pretty popular with the bettors since returning as a 4-year-old. He made it into some graded stakes last year and is still trying to build on the promise he showed back then. He appreciated some added ground last time, but was never a serious threat in a race dominated up front. I'm just worried that he might again encounter an unfavorable pace scenario here.

Sturdy (#7) picked up pieces behind the top pick at this distance two back and can do so again after finally breaking his maiden last time. Makes Sense (#4) is another price I could try to get into the mix underneath, since he won going a distance that may be too short for him last time. He showed some potential in dirt routes before getting claimed by these connections, and may still have upside.