Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Cerretta capable of better second off layoff

Belmont | Race 4 | Post Time 2:32 p.m. (ET)

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Souffle (#7) is obviously the horse to beat as she returns from a layoff for her 3-year-old debut. She earned a flashy speed figure when she was unveiled last summer at Saratoga, just missing as the favorite in a fast race. She understandably attracted a ton of support when she came back for her second start at Aqueduct, but she regressed significantly and finished off the board as the 2-5 choice. There has to be some question about which version of Souffle is going to show up, and she figures to be a short price once again.

Spooky Lady (#3) is a difficult runner to assess as she moves up in class. She obviously took to turf last time when earning a field-best 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure for a narrow loss. Yet that was a weaker maiden-claiming event and I’m a little skeptical she can repeat that effort against tougher going seven furlongs.

I actually think the horse to beat is Snowy Evening (#5). This filly has run well in most of her turf sprint starts, and she has the recency that some others lack. She closed nicely for second in her return to turf in April and then last time was staying on best of all at the end in what may have been a stronger race for the level. She’s wheeling back on just seven days’ rest, but nevertheless looks dangerous with Jose Ortiz getting aboard.

My top pick is Cerretta (#4), who figures to be a better price. This filly seemed to really appreciate the turnback in distance on turf last year when she made a wild late run from far back to just miss in a maiden-claiming event going six furlongs. She probably would have won that day if not for a poor start. She got back on turf last time off a layoff at Aqueduct and ran better than the result indicates. She was wide throughout while reserved off a slow pace that held together. Yet she was finishing best of all at the end, and we’ve seen horses return to run well out of that spot. H. James Bond does better second off a layoff than first off a layoff, and I think the seven-furlong distance will be perfect for her.