Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Carlino should appreciate the stretch-out in the Grand Prix American Jockey Club Invitational

Belmont | Race 8 | Post Time 4:43 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up

Marconi (#7) rarely gets respect at the windows, but it’s hard to argue that he isn’t the horse to beat. I didn’t love his performance in the Birdstone last time, but that race may have been about a quarter-mile farther than his ideal distance, whereas Rocketry (#8) was supposed to relish that trip. I like this slight cutback, and Marconi has the tactical speed to be very dangerous. I’m not against him, but I don’t think he has any kind of massive edge over this field and there are some others to consider at more enticing prices.

I’m not a big fan of You’re to Blame, whose form seems to be declining since earlier in the year. The other horse that I want to take out of Marconi’s Brooklyn is Realm (#4), who was three wide against the rail bias that day and stayed on well for third. He was hardly disgraced against a tougher field in the Suburban last time and he may appreciate stretching back out in distance.

My top pick is CARLINO (#6), who may get somewhat lost in the wagering. I think this horse has shown subtle improvement through his three starts this year. He was way too far back early in the Pimlico Special, and the Suburban wasn’t run in a fashion that suits his strengths. He finished very well to just miss third in the Alydar last time, and I believe he’s going to appreciate stretching back out to 1 1/2 miles. He only has to run as well as he did in the 2018 Brooklyn to be considered a major threat, and his form coming into this race is far stronger than it was at that time last year.

THE PLAY

Win: 6
Exacta key box: 6 with 1, 4, 7, 8
Trifecta: 6 with 4, 7 with 1, 3, 4, 7, 8