Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Added distance should benefit Lucky Dragon
Aqueduct | Race 1 | Post Time 12:40 p.m. (ET)
Dear Chairman (#4) is likely to go favored here off his last effort where he led the field into deep stretch at 12-1 before getting overhauled by a first time starter. He still held on well for second, earning a 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which is clearly the fastest number achieved by anyone in this field. The big question now is the stretch-out in distance, since all of the runners in this field will be trying two turns on dirt for the first time. Dear Chairman does have some stamina in his pedigree going back to his second dam, but sire Spun to Run is just 1 for 24 with his progeny trying dirt routes so far. He adds blinkers and possesses dangerous early speed, but I’m not inclined to settle for a short price on a horse trying something new.
Asset Management (#5) has been pretty consistent over his last few races, but still runs like a colt who has more improvement in him. He was very green in his debut, and has gotten more professional since then. However, he had the misfortune of running into the talented Calling Card in his second start, and then finished ahead of Dear Chairman tow back. Last time he didn’t get an ideal trip when losing position inside. I don’t mind him stretching out, and he might be getting some minor class relief.
My top pick is Lucky Dragon (#7), who has been gradually stretching out in distance, and now tries two turns for the first time. Unlike the favorite, he is more convincing to keep improving with added ground at a far more enticing price. He debuted in a maiden claiming race, but ran into improving 3-year-old Just Clarity, who came back to defeat starter allowance foes in his next start. He was beaten a long way by Dear Chairman when they met in maiden special weight company last time, but he was outrun early and hit his best stride too late. He’s bred to go long, by good stamina influence Lookin At Lucky out of a dirt routing dam. He also gets a rider upgrade to Manny Franco