Saratoga: Spa Babies for Aug. 24, Race 5

Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Sunday's results:
Race 2: Street Savy finished second
Race 6: Street Cat scratched; second-choice Run a Risk scratched; third-choice More Than Love scratched; fourth-choice Spring Breeze finished fourth
Race 7: Read the Research finished fifth
Race 10: Goldie's Reward finished ninth
No baby races Monday

Wednesday, Aug. 24, 2011
Race 5
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Claiming ($100,000)
2-year-olds
Purse $38,000

Analysis:
4. MALIBU WAVE (Malibu Moon - Floresta, by Forest Camp, February 8, 2009 in Florida, Out Keeneland September yearling) is by a juvenile sprint winner (1-2, 33K, 1-2 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 48-288 (17%) with juvenile debut runners (10-62, 16%, $1.64 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 6 juvenile debut winners). The dam, a $335,000 juvenile, was stakes-placed sprinting at two (2-11, 58K, 1-4 at two, 1-7 sprinting) and this is her first starter. This is the family of Grade 1 route winner Victory Speech (9-27, 1.2M, 2-5 at two, 3-7 sprinting). The June 27 workout matches trainer Bill Mott's juvenile Mississippi Duel (finished fourth in career debut on turf on August 5 with 57 Beyer). The July 20, August 17 workouts match Mott's 3-year-old Star Harbour (80 Beyer on dirt). The August 9 workout went .02 slower than Mott's 3-year-old filly An Absolute Ten (70 Beyer on turf). Mott is 0-8 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-4 at Saratoga). Mott is 3-40 (7%, $1.28 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

3. HANNIBAL LECTER (Harlan's Holiday - Decadent Designer, by Well Decorated, February 6, 2009 in Kentucky, $37,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn OBS Select March juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (9-22, 3.6M, 4-6 at two, 2-3 sprinting) that is 24-178 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (4-45, 9%, $2.70 ROI with all debut runners in 2011). The dam was a sprint winner (2-28, 136K, 2-19 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 2-4 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 sprinter Bonapaw (18-49, 1.1M, 1-5 at two, 16-34 sprinting). Trainer John Toscano Jr. is 0-3 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Toscano is 1-52 (2%, $0.17 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2001.

8. MY WAHOO (Flatter - Batidas, by Siphon, January 28, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a Grade 2-placed router (4-6, 148K, 1-2 sprinting) that is 60-387 (16%) with juveniles. The dam, a $17,000 yearling and $320,000 juvenile, was placed sprinting (0-7, 19K, 0-6 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning juvenile Indy's Alexandra (4-18, 167K, 3-3 at two, 3-13 sprinting). Tackled good-looking Pletcher maiden in career debut and is eligible to move forward with that race under his belt.

5. SILVER MAX (Badge of Silver - Kissin Rene, by Kissin Kris, March 8, 2009 in Kentucky, $20,000 Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (7-16, 1.0M, 1-1 at two, 3-5 sprinting) that is 24-140 (17%) with juveniles. The dam was a sprint winner (1-6, 7K, 1-3 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 5 runners (1-3 with juveniles, 2-5 with sprinters). Silver Max is a half-brother to stakes-winner True Kiss (4-21, 115K, 1-2 at two, 3-18 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Prince of the Mt. (10-51, 396K, 0-4 at two, 6-29 sprinting) and stakes-placed sprinter Mt. Rene (2-8, 36K, 1-2 at two, 2-6 sprinting). Trainer Dale Romans is 1-18 (6%, $0.15 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-3 at Saratoga). Took a good amount of money for career debut and gained valuable experience after an awkward beginning.

2. BUNKER'S LEDGE (Harperstown - Cookie Bight Cove, by Elusive Quality, January 23, 2009 in Arkansas) is by a multiple stakes-placed runner (3-10, 109K, 1-4 at two, 1-5 sprinting) that is 3-66 (5%) with juvenile. The dam was a route winner (1-12, 18K, 0-4 at two, 0-3 sprinting) and this is her first starter. This is the family of Grade 2 route winner Wortheroatsingold (4-36, 328K, 1-6 at two, 0-2 sprinting). Trainer Ken McPeek is 2-12 (17%, $1.73 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden claiming dirt sprints (1-2, 50%, $7.90 ROI at Saratoga). Earned excellent pace figures when battling for the early lead in debut and may attempt to steal away on the front end.

1. AFLEET BANDIT (Afleet Alex - Bendita, by Baldski, Foaled February 26, 2009 in Kentucky, $120,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (8-12, 2.7M, 4-6 at two, 5-5 sprinting) that is 34-261 (13%) with juveniles. The dam was stakes-placed on turf (5-19, 89K, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 6 winners from 8 runners (0-3 with juveniles, 0-5 with sprinters). Afleet Bandit is a half-brother to Grade 3-placed Beat the Play (2-7, 91K, 0-2 at two, 0-2 sprinting), multiple Grade 1 turfer Better Talk Now (51-14-8-5, 4.3M, 0-1 at two, 0-2 sprinting) and stakes-winner B. A. Way (5-24, 320K). Trainer Wayne Lukas is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding blinkers in maiden claiming dirt sprints. Raced very greenly in debut. Perhaps the addition of blinkers will help him focus better on the task at hand.

7. DEMON'S DEPUTY (El Corredor - Jodys Deelite, by Afternoon Deelites, April 3, 2009 in Kentucky, $19,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (7-10, 727K, 1-2 at two, 4-6 sprinting) that is 81-732 (11%) with juveniles. The dam, a $30,000 weanling and $65,000 yearling, was multiple stakes-placed at two (3-16, 124K, 1-6 at two, 3-13 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Church Camp (4-11, 146K, 1-1 at two, 3-8 sprinting). Trainer Leah Gyarmati is 0-1 over the past five years with juveniles going turf to dirt following 31-60 day layoff in sprints. Trainer Steve Margolis is 1-1 (100%, $4.20 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping from maiden special weights in dirt sprints. Returns to dirt after chasing next-out Continental Mile winner (76 Beyer by over ten lengths) Finale in most recent outing on grass.

6. DABA DABA (Malibu Moon - Music Fever, by Gold Fever, May 8, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland November weanling, $50,000 Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling, $110,000 Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.4 prior to the May auction. He is by a juvenile sprint winner (1-2, 33K, 1-2 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 160-819 (20%) with juveniles. The dam was unplaced (0-3, 1K, 0-3 at two, 0-3 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 5 runners (1-5 with 2yos, 1-5 with sprinters). Daba Daba is a half-brother to multiple juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Marianne Rose (3-7, 82K, 3-6 at two, 3-7 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Let (7-22, 604K, 2-3 at two, 2-3 sprinting), Japanese stakes-placed Haseno Gulch (11-56, 1.3M, 1-3 at two) and multiple Japanese stakes-winner Eagle Cafe (5-46, 4.2M, 1-3 at two, 0-2 sprinting). Trainer George Weaver is 0-4 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding blinkers and dropping from maiden special weights in dirt sprints (0-2 at Saratoga). Raced over the deepest part of the track when badly-beaten in career debut at Belmont.

Selections:
1. Malibu Wave
2. Hannibal Lecter
3. My Wahoo

The Play:
Malibu Wave to Win at 7-2 odds or greater

* Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 55-12-26 (-$13.50)