Saratoga: Spa Babies 2-year-old picks and analysis for July 31

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RACE 5

5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight (NY-Breds)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $70,000

1. KELLY'S PRIZE (Pure Prize - Miz Lynne Kelly, by Langfuhr)
35K yearling by 128-713 (18%) 2yo sire; winning dam (102K, 0-1 at 2, 5-21 sprint) with 2 winners from 4 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 2-2 sprinters in North America); 2nd dam multiple G3 turf SP My Trip (France, 118K); barn 2-10 (20%, $2.97 ROI) 2nd-time 2yos turf to dirt; drop to statebred company helps.

2. HONEYCHILD (Jump Start - Cinnamon Belle, by Belong to Me)
Sire 22-218 (10%) 2yo FTS; unraced dam has 2 winners from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 2-2 with sprinters); dam 1/2 SP sprinter Splendido (Puerto Rico, 36K); barn 0-17 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa (0-2 NY-Breds).

3. CANAL SIX (Noble Causeway - Prom Dancer, by Touch Gold)
Sire 1-62 (2%) 2yo FTS; unraced dam has 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters); 2nd dam SW Prominent Feather (270K); barn 0-4 past 5 years all FTS.; 6/25 work went .01 slower than Stalagmite (8th FTS turf 21 Beyer MSW BEL 7/12); 7/4 work matches Stalagmite.

4. KICKEN LIVI (Grand Slam - Kicken High, by High Yield)
1/2 turf SW Symbol of Arch (Norway, 153K) by 52-444 (12%) 2yo FTS sire; unplaced dam has 2 winners from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 1-1 sprinters in North America); dam 1/2 multiple G1 turf SW Kicken Kris (1.3M), SW Kris's Sis (348K); barn 1-2 (50%, $8.10 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS NY-bred MSW dirt sprint; 5/19, 5/28, 6/4, 6/10, 6/16, 6/30 works match Liquid Lunch (65 Beyer, entered Mon. R3); 7/20 work matches Mexikoma (56 Beyer FTS MSW turf Spa 7/27); intriguing.

5. LAVENDER ROAD (First Defence - Beebe Lake, by Grand Slam)
95K 2yo after 1F work 10.2; 1/2 SP Roses for Romney (110K, 0-3 at 2, 0-1 sprint) by 3-27 (11%) 2yo FTS sire; SW dam (195K, 0-1 at 2, 0-1 sprint) with 3 winners from 4 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 2-3 sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple turf SP Elusive Rumour (125K); this is barn's 1st debut runner.

6. M0LLY JORDAN (Pioneerof the Nile - Charleston Springs, by Capote)
35K yearling; 1/2 SP sprinter Palmetto Bluffs (82K, 1-4 at 2) by 2-7 (29%) 2yo FTS sire; SP dam (60K, 0-3 at 2, 1-8 sprint) with 5 winners from 5 runners (1-4 with 2yos, 3-5 with sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple turf SW Tangier Sound (265K), multiple SW sprinter Livermore Valley (330K); barn 1-11 (9%, $0.87 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS NY-bred MSW dirt sprint Spa); 7/12 work matches Cool It (7th FTS 36 Beyer SMSW Spa 7/21).

7. OLD HARBOR (Raffie's Majesty - Royal Mast, by Roy)
1/2 multiple SP Shipwrecktreasure (254K, 1-5 at 2, 1-8 sprint) by 13-174 (7%) 2yo sire; dam sprint winner (30K) with 3 winners from 5 runners (1-4 2yos, 3-5 sprinters); 2nd dam multiple SW sprinter Windswept Wings (197K); barn 0-10 past 5 years 2nd-time 2yos dirt; rallied in debut and now tackles NY-breds only.

8. MOVES YOUR SOUL (Jump Start - Woodland Dance, by Woodman)
12K RNA weanling, 9K yearling by 22-218 (10%) 2yo FTS sire; 1st starter from unraced dam; dam 1/2 multiple SP Dancing Blues (166K), multiple SP The Name Was Gone (183K); barn 0-13 past 5 years 2yo FTS NY-Bred MSW dirt sprints; 6/6, 6/13, 6/20 works match Moves Your Soul (10th FTS 6 Beyer SMSW turf Bel 6/30); 7/22 work matches Rolloncat (0 Beyer in lone start).

SELECTIONS:
1. Kicken Livi
2. Old Harbor
3. Kelly's Prize

THE PLAY:
Kicken Livi to WIN at 2-1 odds or greater.

[SARATOGA 2013: Complete meet coverage, exclusive DRF videos]

RACE 7

6 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $80,000

1. DANCING HOUSE (Tapit - Tout Charmant, by Slewvescent)
Sire 31-250 (12%) 2yo FTS; dam multiple G1 SW (1.7M, 1-3 at 2, 1-4 sprint) with 3 winners from 4 runners (1-3 with 2yos, FTS winner, 1-3 sprints); dam 1/2 G3 SW Forest Grove (281K); barn 9-49 (18%) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa.

1a. GARZONI (Bernardini - La Galerie, by Southern Halo)
Sire 12-97 (12%) 2yo FTS; dam G1 sprint SW at 2 (Argentina, 243K, FTS winner) with 2 winners from 4 runners (2-4 sprinters); dam full multiple G1 SW Gouache (Argentina); barn 1-29 (3%, $1.52 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; 5/28, 6/15, 6/21, 6/27, 7/17 works match Snowbell (2nd FTS 66 Beyer MSW Spa 7/25); 6/3 work went .03 faster than Snowbell; 7/10 work went .01 faster than Snowbell; 7/25 work matches Aldara (0 Beyer lone start); jock's 2nd call; capable if draws in.

2. QUILT (Pulpit - Check, by Unbridled)
Full SP sprinter Bind (108K), 1/2 G3 SP router Hakama (176K, 1-3 at 2, 0-2 sprint) by 44-361 (12%) 2yo FTS sire; unraced dam has 3 winners from 4 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 2-4 sprinters); dam 1/2 G3 SW War Thief, G3 turf SW Prime Meridian, G3 SW Watch; barn 0-42 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; 5/21 work went .03 slower than Branded Hand (5th FTS 66 Beyer MSW turf Spa 7/27); 5/31, 6/6 works match Ma Billet Doux (7th FTS 54 Beyer MSW turf Spa 7/22); solid pedigree, but barn often gives them one.

3. PROVE IT ALL NIGHT (Pomeroy - Funky Fraulein, by Sligo Bay)
8.5K yearling; sire 10-82 (12%) 2yo FTS sire; unraced dam has 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 sprinters); 2nd dam multiple SP Kimme a Star (173K); barn 3-25 (12%, $2.01 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint (0-4 Spa); 6/30 work went .01 slower than Queen of Mambo (79 Beyer turf, 64 dirt); 7/14 work matches Lemon Lashes (36 Beyer polytrack); 7/22 work went .01 slower than Irish Jade (68 Beyer turf, entered Sun. R5); interesting.

4. MAGSAMELIA (Mineshaft - Rare Elegance, by Forestry)
40K yearling, 49K yearling, 130K 2yo after 1F work in 10.0; sire 9-144 (6%) 2yo FTS; dam 2yo FTS sprint winner (28K) with 2 winners from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 2-2 with sprinters); dam 1/2 2yo SP sprinter Galiano (19K); barn 1-31 (3%, $1.14 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa.

5. REVERSIONTOTHEMEAN (Curlin - Jet Setting, by Forestry)
35K yearling by 4-46 (9%) 2yo FTS sire; 1st starter from SP sprinter (136K, 1-2 at 2, FTS winner); 3rd dam G2 SW Igotrhythm (416K); barn 3-17 (18%, $3.54 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa.

6. OCEAN BOULEVARD (Fusaichi Pegasus - Adorable Jane, by Tale of the Cat)
Sire 114-785 (15%) 2yos; SW dam (184K, 0-3 at 2, 2-5 sprints) has 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-2 sprinters); dam 1/2 G3 route SW Susan's Angel (350K); barn 0-16 past 5 years 2nd-time 2yos/1st-time Lasix MSW dirt sprints; 5th-finisher from debut returned to win at IND with 60 Beyer.

7. WEST COAST CHICK (Malibu Moon - Inventive, by Dixie Union)
65K RNA weanling, 40K short yearling, 75K yearling by 57-354 (16%) 2yo FTS sire; 1st starter from multiple SP dam (134K, 1-4 at 2, FTS winner, 1-4 sprint) 3rd dam G3 SW Tennis Lady (283K); female family multiple G1 route SW Concern (3.0M); barn 0-51 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; bred to be quick.

8. RACHEL'S TEMPER (Flatter - Fergie's Folly, by Down the Aisle)
14K RNA yearling by 92-599 (15%) 2yo sire; 1st starter from winning dam (46K, 0-3 sprints); dam 1/2 2yo SW Reformer Rally (243K), SW Wild Royal (115K); barn 0-6 past 5 years 2nd-time 2yos; 5th-finisher from debut returned to win Sunday on turf; jock's 1st call

9. MALIBU ANGEL (Malibu Moon - Angel Flying, by Saint Ballado)
Sire 57-354 (16%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from SP dam (89K, 0-4 at 2, 0-1 sprint); 2nd dam multiple G1 turf SW Donna Viola (996K); barn 0-4 past 5 years 2yo FTS; good pedigree; price should be right.

SELECTIONS:
1. Malibu Angel
2. Dancing House
3. West Coast Chick

THE PLAY:
*Malibu Angel to WIN and PLACE at 9-2 odds or greater.

*If MALIBU ANGEL scratches,
then DANCING HOUSE - WEST COAST CHICK EXACTA
and DANCING HOUSE - QUILT EXACTA