Saratoga: Spa Babies 2-year-old picks and analysis for Aug. 4

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RACE 2

1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $85,000

1. DANCE TAP (Tapit - Game Show, by Deputy Minister)
300K yearling; sire 32-252 (13%) 2yo FTS, 23-273 (8%) 1st-turf; 1st starter from route-placed dam (0-1 turf); dam 1/2 G2 route SW Petionville (811K, 1-1 at 2, 1-2 turf, 1st-turf winner), G1 route SW Pike Place Dancer (578K, 2-2 at 2, 3-3 turf), French turf SW Midnight Foxtrot (81K, 3-15 turf); barn 6-38 (16%, $1.25 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf route Spa; 5/28, 6/4 works match Enquete (FTS entered R5); 6/21 work matches Capivara (6th MSW turf MTH 54 Beyer 7/20); 7/29 work matches uncoupled stablemate Fierce Boots; listed as vet scratch 7/11.

2. PAULOWNIA (Quiet American - Misty Dancer, by Lyphard)
510K weanling; full SW Quiet Dance (224K, 1-5 at 2, 0-2 turf) by 131-1264 (10%) 2yo, 195-2094 (9%) turf sire; unplaced dam (0-2 turf) has 7 winners from 14 runners (1-10 2yos, 2-8 turfers); dam 1/2 2yo turf G1 SW Minstrella (358K), G2 SW Misty Gallore (479K); barn 1-5 (20%, $3.80 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-time 2yos sprint/route turf MSW Spa; didn't have easy trip in debut and wheels back quickly; must improve.

3. ACQUANT (Giant's Causeway - Social Queen, by Dynaformer)
Sire 84-612 (14%) 2yos, 439-2936 (15%) turf; 1st starter from multiple G3 SW (344K, 0-1 at 2, 5-15 turf); 2nd dam SW Gal On the Go (238K, 2-5 at 2, 0-4 turf); barn 1-7 (14%, $1.08 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-time 2yos turf; bred to appreciate added distance and is expected to move forward with Lasix.

4. TEMPERS FLAIR (Smart Strike - Cloudburst, by Storm Cat)
375K yearling; sire 51-365 (14%) 2yo FTS, 68-596 (11%) 1st-turf; turf SW dam (71K, 0-2 at 2, 2-2 turf) has 1 winner from 1 runner; dam 1/2 G1 route SW Boston Harbor (1.9M, 6-7 at 2, FTS winner); barn 1-19 (5%, $0.40 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf route (0-7 Spa); 4/16, 4/24, 5/18, 5/23, 5/30, 6/6, 6/13, 6/20 works match Temper Too (5th FTS SMSW 27 Beyer PID Tapeta 7/24); 5/18 work matches Divorce Party (6th FTS 62 Beyer turf MSW 7/27); 6/29 work matches Latique (5th FTS MSW 39 Beyer PID Tapeta 39 Beyer 7/29); 7/5 work matches The Careless Cat (5th FTS turf MSW 61 Beyer 7/22).

5. KETEL TWIST (Dixie Union - Frozen Treat, by Dynaformer)
70K short yearling; 150K yearling; 1/2 SW Catrageous (90K, 0-5 at 2, 1-3 turf) by 142-903 (16%) 2yo, 99-1033 (10%) turf sire; dam won on turf at 2 (31K, 1-2 at 2, 1-8 turf) with 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-2 turf); dam 1/2 multiple SW Buff (646K, 2-4 at 2, 6-31 turf), turf SW Second Performance (109K, 0-1 at 2, 2-10 turf); dam full G2 turf SW Masseuse (439K, 0-3 at 2, 5-12 turf); barn 0-12 past 5 years 2nd-time 2yos sprint/route MSW turf route Spa; very logical with normal 2nd-out improvement.

6. FIERCE BOOTS (Tiznow - Shop Again, by Wild Again)
200K yearling; 1/2 2yo G1 route SW Power Broker (578K, 1-5 at 2, 0-2 turf) by 22-284 (8%) 2yo FTS, 26-328 (8%) 1st-turf sire; SW dam (122K, 0-6 at 2, 1-1 turf) with 2 winners from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 1-2 turfers); dam 1/2 SW sprinter Bought In Dixie (319K, 0-1 at 2, 0-1 turf), 2yo G2 SP sprinter Bulling (203K, 2-9 at 2, 0-8 turf), G1 route SW Miss Shop (1.1M, 2-3 at 2, FTS winner, 4-10 turf, 1st-turf winner), G2 sprint SW Trappe Shot (703K, 0-1 at 2); barn 6-38 (16%, $1.25 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf route Spa; 5/28 work matches Dattt Melody (FTS entered R1); 6/4, 7/15 works match Super Sky (3rd FTS MSW 66 Beyer 7/22); 7/22 work matches Murmure (7th FTS MSW turf 61 Beyer 7/28); 7/29 work matches uncoupled stablemate Dance Tap.

7. LA REINE BOURBON (Leroidesanimaux - Gratorious, by Honor Grades)
14K RNA weanling, 24K RNA yearling, 100K 2yo after 1F work 10.2; 1/2 multiple SP 2yo Dreamlicious (115K, 0-8 at 2, 1-4 turf) by 8-57 (14%) 2yo FTS, 20-102 (20%) 1st-turf sire; unplaced dam (0-1 turf) has 2 winners from 4 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 1-2 turfers); dam 1/2 multiple SP Voluptuous (103K, 2-6 at 2, 2-21 turf, 1st-turf winner), multiple 2yo SP sprinter Impassion (36K, 1-10 at 2, FTS winner, 0-1 turf), 2yo SP sprinter Missadryannaatto (69K, 0-1 at 2, 0-2 turf); barn 5-28 (18%, $1.96 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf route Spa; 6/10, 6/17, 6/24, 7/1, 7/8 works match Hillhouse High (4th FTS MSW turf 76 Beyer 7/22); expecting a good try.

8. ALDARA (Street Cry - Lady Pegasus, by Fusaichi Pegasus)
Sire 44-323 (14%) 2yos; 1st starter from SP dam (202K, 2-5 sprint); dam 1/2 G3 SW Thunder Kitten (253K, 1-5 sprint), multiple SW Nobo True (5.2M, Japan); barn 5-25 (20%, $1.96 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos MSW dirt sprint (0-7 Spa); 4th-finisher of debut won 75K MCL 54 Beyer here 7/25.

9. MA BILLET DOUX (Tapit - Saintlike, by Saint Ballado)
500K yrlng; 1/2 SW Heart of a King (254K, 0-1 at 2, 7-25 sprint), 2yo SP Nockonheavensgate (58K, 1-7 at 2, 1-8 sprint) by 110-721 (15%) 2yo sire; winning dam (43K, 1-1 sprint) has 3 winners from 4 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 3-3 sprint); dam 1/2 turf SW Pompeyano (255K); barn 0-10 past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos turf to dirt.

SELECTIONS (turf only):
1. La Reine Bourbon
2. Ketel Twist
3. Acquant

THE PLAY (turf only):
LA REINE BOURBON to WIN at 7-2 odds or greater.

RACE 5

6 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $80,000

1. GARZONI (Bernardini - La Galerie, by Southern Halo)
Sire 12-97 (12%) 2yo FTS; dam G1 sprint SW at 2 (Argentina, 243K, 3-4 at 2m FTS winner, 6-16 sprint) with 2 winners from 4 runners (2-4 sprinters); dam full multiple G1 SW Gouache (Argentina), multiple G1 SP La Promenade (Argentina); dam 1/2 G1 SW Apeles (Argentina); barn 1-29 (3%, $1.52 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; 5/28, 6/15, 6/21, 6/27, 7/17 works match Snowbell (2nd FTS 67 Beyer MSW Spa 7/25); 6/3 work went .03 faster than Snowbell; 7/10 work went .01 faster than Snowbell; 7/25 work matches Aldara (0 Beyer lone start, entered MTO R1)

2. ENQUETE (Indian Charlie - North of Neptune, by Mr. Prospector)
1/2 SP turf Moon Prospect (106K, 1-1 at 2, 0-1 sprint) by 47-296 (16%) 2yo FTS sire; unraced dam has 2 winners from 4 runners (1-2 with 2yos, FTS winner, 0-1 sprinters); dam full 2yo turf G3 SW Moon Driver, G3 route SP Mojave Moon (102K, 0-1 at 2); dam 1/2 multiple 2yo SP turf Canda (France), turf SP Helike (France); 3rd dam is Miesque; barn 33-99 (33%, $2.59 ROI) past 5 years 2YO FTS MSW dirt sprints Spa; 6/21 work matches Paradise Alley (6th FTS turf MSW 42 Beyer 7/4); 6/29 work matches Ready's Legend (8th FTS turf MSW 36 Beyer 7/4) bred for turf, guessing can run on dirt.

3. GUILTY VERDICT (Medaglia d'Oro - Smuggler, by Unbridled)
Sire 23-176 (13%) 2yo FTS; dam multiple G1 route SW (654k, 2-3 at 2, FTS winner, 1-2 sprint) with 0 winners from 3 runners (0-2 sprinters); 2nd dam multiple G1 SW Inside Information (1.6M, 1-2 at 2, won debut, 4-5 sprint); barn 0-18 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; classy pedigree; can’t count out.

4. MALIBU ANGEL (Malibu Moon - Angel Flying, by Saint Ballado)
Sire 57-355 (16%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from SP dam (89K, 0-4 at 2, 0-1 sprint); 2nd dam multiple G1 turf SW Donna Viola (996K, 2-7 at 2); barn 0-4 past 5 years 2yo FTS; can’t knock bloodlines and should offer value.

5. JULIA TUTWILER (Pulpit - Caroline's Gold, by Touch Gold)
290K yearling; sire 44-362 (12%) 2yo FTS; G3 SP dam (156K, 1-4 at 2, 2-7 sprint) with 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple G1 route SW Colonel John (1.7M, 2-4 at 2, 1-3 sprint), G1 route SP Mr. Hot Stuff (341K, 0-3 at 2, 0-2 sprint, G1 SW jumps), SP router Kayce Ace (151K, 0-1 sprint); barn 0-42 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa.

6. LE PLUME (Smart Strike - Impertinence, by A.P. Indy)
50K short yearling; sire 51-365 (14%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from unplaced dam (0-1 on turf); 2nd dam multiple SW Sophie My Love (234K, 1-3 at 2, FTS winner, 1-2 sprint); barn 1-34 (3%, $2.94 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; 4/17 work matches Ireland (5th FTS MSW 22 Beyer 7/19); 4/17 work matches Paulownia (8th FTS turf MSW 12 Beyer 7/22, entered R2); 5/6 work matches Tall Boy (7th FTS MSW 31 Beyer CD 6/21); 5/6, 5/21 works match Vigorish (5th FTS MSW 33 Beyer 7/27); 5/11 work matches American Creed (6th FTS SMSW 46 Beyer 7/21); 5/28 work matches Rooster Cruiser (6th FTS MSW 16 Beyer 7/25); 5/27 work matches Channel Isle (3rd ANC turf 67 Beyer CD 6/20); 6/5 work matches Cello (6th FTS MSW turf 60 Beyer 7/22); 7/22 work matches Optimizer (101 turf Beyer; 93 dirt); 7/22 work went .02 faster than Channel Isle (8th 'n2x' OPC turf 76 Beyer 7/27)

SELECTIONS:
1. Enquete
2. Guilty Verdict
3. Malibu Angel

THE PLAY:
Enquete – Guilty Verdict EXACTA
Enquete – Malibu Angel EXACTA