Saratoga: Spa Babies 2-year-old picks and analysis for Aug. 29

RACE 8

6 Furlongs
Maiden Claiming ($75,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $55,000

1. LONG ISLAND LEE (Midnight Lute - Royal Beauty, by Monarchos)
17K yearling; sire 2-44 (5%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from unraced dam; dam 1/2 SP Yukon Dust (35K, 1-14 sprint), SP router Tina Dynamite (165K, 1-1 at 2, 2-6 sprint), SP Gingham and Lace (74K, 1-3 at 2, 0-1 sprint); barn 2-4 (50%, $5.47 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MCL dirt sprint Spa8/4 work matches Chase My Tail (54 dirt Beyer, entered Wed. R8); 8/23 work matches Your Time is Up (68 dirt Beyer); respect barn

2. GOLDEN ANNIE (Divine Park - Harlan Helper, by Friends Lake)
30K yearling, 60K RNA 2yo after 1F in 10.4; sire 4-22 (18%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from unraced dam; dam 1/2 SW Impending Bear (255K, 2-2 sprint), G3 SP Siphon Honey (129K, 2-6 sprint); barn 1-3 (33%, $4.86 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MCL dirt sprint Spa; 7/9 work matches Milam (1st FTS MSW 79 Beyer ELP 8/4); 8/19 work matches uncoupled mate Thundering Gale

3. BELIEVEINFAITH (Parading - Losing Faith, by Broken Vow)
13K RNA short yearling, 10K RNA yearling, 33K yearling; 1/2 SP 2yo sprinter Funny Lady (49K, 0-3 at 2, 1-5 sprint) by G2 SW (530K, 1-3 sprint, 0-7 with 2yo FTS); unraced dam has 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters); female family of multiple SW Wander Kind (303K); barn 0-19 past 5 years 2yo FTS MCL dirt sprint; 8/17 work matches Lady Rhubarb (FTS Wed. R6);

4. THUNDERING GALE (Thunderello - Golden Gale, by Summer Squall)
Full G3 SP sprinter Knights Cross (252K, 5-23 sprint), SP Bailzee (152K, 2-16 sprints) by 25-200 (13%) 2yo sire; dam G2 SW sprinter (261K, 7-16 sprint) with 4 winners from 6 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 3-6 sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple SP sprinter Foggy Launch (90K, 12-33 sprint), SP Campbell Slewp (81K, 0-2 at 2, 0-8 sprint), SP Thelma Jean (31K, 0-3 sprint); barn 3-12 (25%, $2.64 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos MCL dirt sprints; not the easiest debut trip; must improve.

5. TOTAL TALENT (Talent Search - Tubacity, by Dixie Brass)
20K yearling; sire multiple SW sprinter (603K, 1-1 at 2, 6-13 sprint, 3-10 with 2yo FTS); placed dam (33K, 0-3 sprint) has 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G3 SW Pentatonic (601K, 2-7 sprint); barn 1-8 (13%, $1.57 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MCL Spa; interesting.

6. FRIENDS PRO (Friends Lake - Mama's Pro, by Proper Reality)
1/2 SW sprinter Pro Prado (397K, 2-3 at 2, 6-23 sprint) by 86-527 (16%) 2yo sire; multiple SW dam (435K, 2-4 at 2, 6-27 sprints) has 5 winners from 9 runners (1-5 with 2yos, 3-9 with sprinters); 2nd dam multiple SP sprinter Mama Cielo (50K, 2-4 at 2, 2-15 sprint); barn 2-9 (22%, $1.26 ROI) past 5 years 2yos MSW/MCL dirt sprint; good speed in both starts; logical.

7. COAL AND ICE (Tapit - Unobstructed View, by Yes It's True)
95K RNA yearling, 140K RNA 2yo after 1F work 10.3; 95K RNA 2yo after 1F work 10.3; sire 32-261 (12%) 2yo FTS; dam 2yo G3 SP sprinter (56K, 1-3 at 2, won debut, 1-3 sprint) with 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with sprinters); 3rd dam multiple SW Stellar Performer (203K, 1-3 at 2, 1-9 sprint); barn 16-85 (19%, $1.27 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MCL dirt sprint (0-2 Spa); 8/2 work matches Pop Music (4th FTS MSW turf 50 Beyer IND 8/24); 8/19 work matches Double Gold (66 Beyer); not out of it.

8. WINEKEEPER (Pure Prize - Hawaiian Cruise, by Two Punch)
14.5K RNA yearling, 40K 2yo after 1F work 10.3; sire 26-209 (12%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from sprint winner (23K, 3-13 sprint); dam 1/2 SP Proud Charm (196K, 0-2 at 2, 2-12 sprint); barn 3-11 (27%, $7.14 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MCL dirt sprint Spa

SELECTIONS:
1. Total Talent
2. Friends Pro
3. Coal and Ice

THE PLAY:
Total Talent to WIN at 2-1 odds or greater

RACE 10

1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
With Anticipation Stakes (G2)
2-year-olds
Purse $200,000

1. BASHART (War Front - Busy Windsong, by Clever Trick)
Wheels back in 11 days following professional maiden tally at the distance; after breaking well, he was hung out 3 wide around both turns while prompting the pace; made the front turning for home and dug down deep to repel the late kick of Arctic Slope; has the tactical speed to work out a good pace-tracking, ground-saving trip from the inside; respect.

2. RIVER DANCER (Pioneerof the Nile - Clever Actress, by Theatrical)
Pulled off a 30-1 shocker sprinting at Belmont and was flattered somewhat when Marvin's Miracle returned to graduate vs. NY-breds on August 8; did some good things in the debut as he broke awkwardly and was far back leaving the backstretch; angled 5 wide turning for home and worked hard to get up in the final sixteenth; guessing he'll handle this distance, but takes a big step up in class; prefer 'underneath'

3. TIGER BOURBON (Big Brown - Tigresa, by Tejano)
Simply refused to lose his debut at Belmont against General Jack and Bashart; broke on top, but rated comfortably outside Bashart as the pair chased longshot pacesetter Stalagmite; put Bashart away in upper stretch with a 3 wide bid only to be immediately confronted by General Jack; kept on trucking and was actually inching away from that foe at the wire; get distance test, but is kin to a SW miler by Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown; contender.

4. RACETRACK ROMANCE (Bellamy Road - Major's Girl, by Purge)
Settled into a very nice pocket behind the pacesetter after the first 5/16th of a mile; split rivals on the 2nd turn and engaged in a pitched battle with the eventual runnerup in the stretch; hopped back to his left lead once he made the front; barn 1-14 over past 5 years with newly-claimed runners, but Reynolds took Peeping Tom for 40K in 2000 and transformed him into a G1 winner; giant class hike and must run faster.

5. MARVIN'S MIRACLE (Cosmonaut - Idle Gossip, by Western Expression)
This colt ran pretty well when beating NY-breds here 3 weeks ago; pressed the pace while 3 wide throughout and faced a stiff challenge from the talented and troubled Bluegrass Flash turning for home; it took a few strides for him to complete his final lead change, but he battled back determinedly along the rail to reclaim the lead late; has some early ability and shouldn't be too far off the pace once again; may be best played on bottom of exotics; jock's 1st call.

6. BASE CASE SCENARIO (Pioneerof the Nile - Mamboalot, by Kingmambo)
Beat a good group of maidens in his turf debut as the 3rd-finisher returned to graduate with a 73 Beyer; taken off the rail going into the 1st turn, he wound up stalking the pace outside on the backstretch; attacked the leaders 3 wide on the 2nd turn, took over in upper stretch and had enough to turn back the rallying runner-up; barn has sent out some live horses at the meet; consider.

7. WE MISS ARTIE (Artie Schiller - Athena's Gift, by Fusaichi Pegasus)
Didn't get much of a Beyer for his maiden win as he prompted pedestrian fractions set by a 19-1 longshot; took over without much fuss in upper stretch and drew away despite being a bit green in midstretch; although slower than many of these on the numbers, the feeling is that he's talented and has some upside; demand value before taking the plunge.

8. GENERAL JACK (Giant's Causeway - J'ray, by Distant View)
Found a great spot to break his maiden in the 100K Shakopee Juvenile around 2 turns at Canterbury; a bit eager going into the 1st turn, he settled down nicely when tracking the leader from the outside; still has trouble with his lead changes as he swerved pretty badly once he grabbed the lead in the stretch; must deal with an outside post here, but has run some fast races for excellent connections; can't ignore.

9. KING CYRUS (Bellamy Road - Queen of Empire, by Empire Maker)
Pletcher colt put the boots to five overmatched foes going seven furlongs, but that race just didn't come back fast at all; instead of the Grade 1 Hopeful at the end of the meet, the connections are hoping for easier pickings if this race is taken off the turf; experience at 7 furlongs is certainly a plus.

10. FREE MUGATU (Utopia - Thunder Babe, by Appealing Skier)
Statebred rallied nicely over a sealed, sloppy track and might get some moisture in the dirt if this race is washed off the turf course; sold for 30x the stud fee of his sire and ran the fastest race of the 3 MTO entrants; must respect if this race comes off.

11. HOWABOUTWE (Da Stoops - Corredor's Wind, by El Corredor)
Seemed more focused with blinkers and battled with Carolinian through solid fractions over a muddy track; bred for speed on both sides of the pedigree and has shown some early gas from two starts; wouldn't be a surprise if he's one of the pacesetters if this race is taken off the turf; jock's 2nd call.

SELECTIONS (TURF ONLY):
1. Tiger Bourbon
2. General Jack
3. Bashart

THE PLAY (TURF ONLY):
Tiger Bourbon - General Jack EXACTA
Tiger Bourbon - Bashart EXACTA