Saratoga: Daily Game Plan for Saturday, July 19

Race 1

Henry Jones

By G3 route winner (1-7 turf) that is 0-10 with 2yo FTS and 0-2 with 1st-turfers; dam placed on turf (9K, 0-4 at 2, 0-1 turf) and has 2 winners from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 2-2 turfers); barn 1-10 ($5.70 ROI) over past 5 years with 2yo FTS in MSW turf routes at Spa, according to Formulator

Dubai Sky

Full to G1 sprint winner Twirling Candy (944K, 1-1 at 2, 2-2 turf) is a half to G2 turf winner Ethnic Dance (261K, 0-1 at 2); by multiple G1 winner (749K, 3-3 turf) that is 15% with 2yo FTS and 11% 1st-turf; dam placed sprinting at 2 and has 2 winners from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 2-2 turfers); barn 0-28 past 5 years with 2yo FTS in MSW turf routes at Spa.

Swing Dixie

2.5K yearling by G2 winner (8-30 turf) that is 5% with 2yos and 6% with turf runners; dam earned 144K (0-4 at 2, 3-18 turf) and has 2 winners from 6 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with turfers); barn is 3-21 (14%, $3.40 ROI) past 5 years with 2yos (0-3 at Spa); trailed throughout at long odds; outsider.

The Truth Or Else

40K weanling went for 110K as yearling; 1/2 multiple SP Fighter Wing (153K, 0-4 turf) by G1 sprint SW (15% 2yos, 8% turfers); dam a multiple G3 route winner (556K, 2-3 at 2, 0-2 turf) with 3 winners from 7 runners (1-4 2yos, 0-5 turfers); barn 7-27 ($3.18) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos sprint-route turf MSW (0-9 Spa); off slow, rushed to stalk 2-3w in even debut.

Bully Proof

170K RNA yearling then sold for 55K as yearling; by G1 route winner that is 11% with 2yo FTS; first starter from G1-placed router (3rd beaten 17 lengths in CCA Oaks, 188K, 0-3 at 2, 0-2 dirt sprints); barn 2-11 ($1.91) past 5 years 2yo FTS off-turf MSW dirt sprints at Spa; jock's 2nd call; respect.

Luck of the Kitten

Full to multiple SW Empire Builder (215K, 2-5 at 2, 3-19 turf, 1st-turf winner) by multiple G1 turf winner that is 17% with 2yo FTS and 15% with 1st-turfers; dam was stakes-placed on turf (87K, 2-9 turf) and has 2 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 2-3 turfers); barn 1-14 ($0.48 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf routes (0-7 at Spa); interesting.

Kamarius

1/2 to G2 turf SW Sarach (248K, 0-3 at 2) is out of a dam that was SP on turf in France (49K) and has 5 winners from 6 runners (2-4 2yos, 4-5 turfers); by multiple G1 winner (3-3 turf) that is 17% with 2yos and 11% 1st-turfers; barn 3-15 ($1.16 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos dirt-turf and sprint-route in Spa MSW; dirt debut likely a prep for this.

Mr. Discreet

1/2 SW Concorde's Edge (113K, 1-3 turf). multiple SP sprinter Bound Notebook (185K, 0-2 at 2, 0-1 turf) by G1 route SW (16% 2yo FTS, 15% 1st-turf); unplaced dam (7K, 0-5 at 2) has 2 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-2 turf); dam 1/2 G1 route SW Discreet Cat ($1.3M, 1-1 at 2); barn 5-36 ($1.14 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf routes Spa.

Lockport

105K yearling by G3 route winner (1-7 turf) that is 0-13 with 2yos and 0-2 with 1st-turfers; dam placed sprinting (16K, 0-3 at 2) and has 2 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 0-1 with turfers); dam 1/2 G3-placed sprinter So Long Sonoma (188K); barn 6-16 ($2.98) past 5 years 2yos dirt-turf; finished ahead of next-out turf winner Goo Bird (56 Beyer ELP). - Dan Illman

Race 2

Sol the Freud

Reunites with win-rider Johnny V; without a defined pacesetter here he could very well be the one playing catch me if you can which was the tactic for his 2013 debut win on SAR dirt; dismiss the turf experiment; he is back home racing over an oval we already know he loves; is the one to catch and beat.

Ogermeister

See Johnny V siding with Sol the Freud off his wet-track loss to Sidearm which produced a new Beyer speed figure Top; the show finisher from last Beyered 89 in a next-out BEL allowance win; the first 3 finishers 2 back all returned to win next out taking PRX-starter alw., and BEL-alws. (85-82-73 Beyers); the 3-back winner repeated in a BEL-150K stakes with a 90; have him ranked a tad below the top contenders.

Sidearm

Rider from last sides with Groupthink; 8 minor awards during career he often races well in defeat; is another who produced a career-best Beyer on a muddy track while today he will test a fast oval; beat the show runner from last who Beyered 89 winning a BEL-alw. next out.

Thnxtomyuncle

His only win is where he rallied from 10 lengths back at the 1st call; will need a hot pace and a clean trip to rally past the field as he projects to race far back early; unfortunately the pace does not project super fast here; willing to excuse his only SAR dirt start which was a 6th-place MSW loss in the mud; new rider leaves Groupthink for him.

Handy Stan

3-for-4 since claimed last winter; he's won his last 3 fast-track starts; his main game is gate speed but will have to fend off Sol the Freud early then the closers late to repeat; beat the show finisher last out who Beyered 72 in a next-out BEL-14K-claiming win; the 2-back winner repeated in a BEL-125K stakes with a 97 speed figure; contender.

Uncle Hugo

40 days away for an 8%-fresh trainer; has the same owner/different trainer off his SUF-debut romp which came attached with a light Beyer; some runners improve dramatically 2nd-time out; the new trainer wins 8% first-time out with newly-acquired runners; will be taking a wait and see approach..

Say Mr. Sandman

Made the favorite at BEL off his 2-back FL win but faded after seemingly getting a good-stalking trip; his career-best Beyer and last win were gate-to-wire but doesn't project to own the same type of gate speed as Sol the Freud and Handy Stan which compromises his win hopes.

Jack's R Wild

To back him to win you would have to buy into that he's ready to snap a 12-race losing streak; his 7F BEL-dirt win was in a MSW race in October rallying from 8th-10 lengths back at the 1st call; today is his shortest-distance test since March which doesn't help the cause; late runner would be a surprise.

Groupthink

Projects to sit just off Sol the Freud early then get 1st run on the closers; the 25%-winning long layoff trainer suggests we need not worry about this lengthy absence; Sol the Freud rematch from his SAR-2013 career debut; according to the weather forecasters it will be fast and sunny at SAR which means he has something to prove on a fast track off his muddy-field-best Beyer speed figure more than 7 months ago; edged the runner-up finisher fron last who finished 14th in the Kentucky Derby; he Beyered 93 in his next-out AQU-MSW win; the 2-back runner-up Beyered 75 in his next-out AQU-MSW win; the pick. - Art Gropper

Race 3

Waco

Has the benefit of experience in a field with a surprising number of first timers for a race for 3-year-olds and up; liked the cutback in distance last time out with a close fourth; still, you have to think that Bond views him as a superior turf horse given that he has run him four out of five times on the grass; he could react negatively if beaten to the lead and eating dirt on the inside.

Oklahoma Ace

Cost a bundle at auction last year but has taken a long time to get to the races; plenty of works under his belt, though would have liked to have seen something going 5f or longer; quick local breezes for Zito, whose stats are well off his norm when it comes to first timers; related to a pair of stakes horses, one stakes winner; 14% winners for the sire.

Contrary Opinion

By an elite sire Street Cry and the pedigree is similarly good on the dam's side, with her being out of Hookedonthefeelin, a graded stakes winner (including at 2); two bullets in his holster on dirt, one at Fair Hill and another at Delaware on a busy morning; related to a pair of G1-winning sprinters in Pussycat Doll and Jimmy Creed; sire gets just less than 9% first-out winners; still top choice on the basis of that fine pedigree.

Taghleeb

McLaughlin is very good with first-out runners - and some slip past the public, though this one figures to be well supported; showed speed with a bullet drill at Belmont, and that gate work at Belmont July 6 was also above average; dam was a minor stakes winner overseas; under 8% debut winners for Hard Spun.

Cosmic Gold

Owns the top last-race Beyer, a 69, and the form from that that race has held up with the runner-up coming back to win; logical to expect improvement from this one second out; move to a tougher circuit offset by the softness of this race, unless one or more of these first timers is a runner.

Bird Now

Should be fitter than he was in that June 20 race at Churchill when fifth of seven off a layoff; showed speed in his races last year on this track when with Zito, though he ended up getting dusted; despite losing by 7 1/2 lengths last time, his 63 is only 6 points off Cosmic Gold, who has the best fig in the race; some price appeal.

Azorian

Unless this one shows a form reversal on dirt, he figures to be in for a long afternoon; he's slow and has lost all three of his races for his current connections by 12 lengths or more; let's wait for a positive race; probably need a low-end maiden claimer to be competitive. - Byron King

Race 4

Special Invitation

Reportedly scored by over 2 seconds in a training race in Puerto Rico on 5/9; 14K yearling is 1/2 to 2yo SW sprinter Cougarville (39K, debut winner); by G2-placed router (11% 2yo FTS); dam sprint-placed (10K) half-sis to G2 sprint winner Mach Ride (640K); she has 1 winner from 3 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 1-1 dirt sprinters); Rudy 6-22 ($5.42) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprints.

Blame Jim

Out of an unplaced (0-2 dirt sprints) half-sister to G2 sprint winner Bwana Charlie (0-5 at 2), G3 route winner Bwana Bull (2-6 at 2, 0-3 dirt sprints) and G2 route winner My Pal Charlie (0-3 at 2, 0-4 dirt sprints); by G2 sprint winner (14% 2yo FTS); dam has 3 winners from 4 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 3-4 dirt sprinters); barn 37% ($2.76) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprints at Spa.

Omarvelous

Although Lukas is 0-40 over the past 5 years with 2yo FTS in MSW dirt sprints at Saratoga, he may have more horsepower this season with the Zayat runners; several works match up with Sanford entrant Mr Z; by multiple G1 synthetic route winner (17% 2yo FTS) out of sprint winner (44K) with 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 dirt sprinters).

Now We Are Free

Dam was a multiple SW (460K, 5-12 dirt sprints) with 2 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-2 with dirt sprinters); sire was multiple G1 winner at 2 (8% with 2yo FTS); dam half to 2yo SP sprinter Icy City (78K); barn 1-16 (6%, $0.88 ROI) past 5 years FTS.

Smithereen

47K yearling is by a multiple Grade 1 synthetic sprint winner that connects with 23% of 2yo FTS; this is the first starter from a route winner (42K, unraced sprinting); dam a half-sister to Group 1 winner Flirteador (Argentina); barn 13-75 (17%, $0.98 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprints (0-3 at Spa).

Bold Conquest

Dam was multiple stakes-placed router (131K, 1-3 at 2, won debut, 0-2 dirt sprints) with 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 dirt sprinters); by multiple G1 route winner (10% 2yo FTS); barn 7-34 (21%, $1.64 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprints: 6/11 work matches barn's Revolver (63 Beyer).

Money Changer

55K yearling sold for 100K in April after working 2F in a scorching 20 flat; must respect Pletcher's numbers (37-100, 37%, $2.76 ROI past 5 years with 2yo FTS in MSW dirt sprints at Spa); by G2 sprint winner (14% 2yo FTS) and is the first starter from the unraced dam. - Dan Illman

Race 5

Sam Sparkle

The 0-for-6 SAR dirt record and loss in 2013 to Majestic Hussar here are some drawbacks; 51 days since the BEL upset score which looks better since the runner-up finisher posted an 86 Beyer speed figure in his next-out BEL-40K-claiming win; dismiss 2-back on a wet track which he dislikes; was defeated by the runner-up finisher who Beyered 95 in a next-out BEL-optional-claiming win; the one to beat.

Majestic Hussar

Returns to the oval of his greatest success breaking his maiden 1st-time out in the slop then winning an optional claimer fresh here last summer; been known to rate just off the speed but today projects as the main pacesetter and is the one to catch; exits his lowest Beyer since Sept. 2012 when finishing 7th in the SAR-G1 Hopeful.

Piquant

The 16 minor awards leaps off the form at you as a runner who often races well in defeat including his only SAR start in 2011 where he finished 2nd in a 7F-dirt MSW event; his last win was following a 59-day freshening but is back in just 4 weeks for this; contender.

Twin Engine

His CD win 2 back was for half this price tag; the class question comes into play as we have a last-out stakes winner dropping in here while he seeks the correct level; 7F is a distance he does not have a lot of experience at but recent races suggest it would be right up his alley.

Be Bullish

Even finish in latest as perhaps the 124-pound impost was too much?; gets that same assignment today while trying to snap an 8-race losing streak on SAR dirt; 7F has not been his best distance during career but is another who seems to own the right style to handle it; must show more.

Frazil

Was on the lead in last pair; he figures as a pace presence chasing Majestic Hussar; a Main Track Only entry Friday so he figures to be in this race where he would have to avenge latest loss vs. Piquant; when you look at his SAR dirt record with a best Beyer of 83 he has something to prove over today's oval; April, 2011, field-best Beyer was on the AQU Main at 6.5F.

Broad Rule

Has never won a race outside of Maryland; exits his lowest Beyer since January, 2012, when racing 1st time for a new trainer-same owner; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 85 in a next-out CT-starter handicap win; will be taking a wait and see approach 1st time racing at the SPA.

Cherokee Artist

MTH-stakes winner beating a strong field drops into a claimer off that best-last-race Beyer; receives a positive 2-pound weight swing for this off his 2-back loss to Be Bullish; wish his other 7F dirt races were better but sure has the right style to get today's distance; the pick.

One King's Man

Late runner cuts back to his shortest-distance test since November; was claimed off a 2014-best Beyer exacta finish 3-back chasing the winner who repeated in a CD-optional-claimer with a 93 speed figure; owns a declining-Beyer pattern since purchased; 124 pounds is the highest-weight assignment of his career while breaking widest is sure to lose ground; will be backing others. - Art Gropper

Race 6

Slew's Brew

His one start over turf was easily his sharpest performance to date and his connections have entered him for turf in two starts since then; he breaks from a favorable rail post, and at the very least, he's worthy of consideration underneath in the exotics.

Whyalwaysme

He did produce an improved performance in his turf debut in his latest outing, but that was against statebred maiden claimers, and he'll need to show more while stepping up in class for this; third-place finisher from latest won next out at Bel on 7/6 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 40k MCL's with a 64 Beyer.

Mr Ciolko

He exits the same race as today's rival Boston Strong, and although it's tough to give him the nod over that rival in this one, it is interesting to see that he showed some late life in that race after attracting a fair amount of wagering support.

Vischer Ferry

He gave a solid account of himself in his turf debut in his latest outing, but he did benefit from a slow early pace that day, and it looks like the early tempo in here will be quite a bit quicker; not counting him out of the mix, but leaning toward others for the top spot.

Spark to Ignite

He's yet to run a race that is strong enough to suggest that he can get over on the top contenders in here, and it would have been nice to have seen him show a little more in his turf debut in his latest outing; Luzzi has won with 3 of 12 (25%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Coviello

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and dam won 2 of 17 starts for 28k, including 2 of 11 turf starts for 27k; late running type showed a little something in his first two starts and he might not mind seeing what he can do over turf.

Fidelius

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who won 2 of 39 starts for 104k, including 0-for-7 over turf; this is a barn that can jump up with one over turf and a couple of his workouts suggest that he hasn't shown us his best stuff in his first two attempts.

Readyheartandsoul

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his turf starters and dam won 2 of 6 starts for 64k, including 1 of 3 turf starts for 29k; turf and distance are concerns, but this Live Oak-owned gelding was much improved in his first start wearing blinkers in his latest outing.

Crescent Street

Sire wins with approximately 21% of his turf starters and he's won with 16 of 62 (26%) starters trying turf for the first time; dam won 5 of 21 starts for 196k, and she didn't make a turf start; he brings a good deal of early speed with him and it's tough to ignore a Street Boss testing turf for the first time.

Boston Strong

Half-brother to G3 winner Infinite Magic (4-14, 225k, including 2 of 8 turf starts for 209k) was green as grass in his career debut and he put together a fine finish once he was switched out into the clear at the top of the stretch; feel that he's eligible to be ready for better the second time around.

Forever Utopia

Stakes placed colt has to be listed among the contenders, but when seeing all of the runner-up finishes he's settled for through his first nine starts, it's tough to back him for the top spot; it looks like he tuned up with a sharp four furlongs on July 13 in preparation for this.

Thurgood

New York-bred has a fine pedigree being by a top turf sire and out of a stakes winning dam who won 4 of 15 starts for 141k, including 3 of 8 turf starts for 118k; he was outrun by his 6/5 stablemate in his career debut, and he raced green and even got jammed up a little bit in traffic along the rail approaching the stretch; he looks like the one to deny.

Harbor King

It's going to be tough to look past Readyheartandsoul if this race has to be moved to the main track, and this gelding has been beaten by Forever Utopia in a number of his starts; this will likely prove to be a tough spot for him if this race has to be taken off the turf. - Brian Pochman

Race 7

Sanford Stakes by Michael Hammersly

As far as the juvenile seen in New York goes it’s Todd Pletcher’s world and we just live in it. Pletcher has been the dominant force with 2-year-olds on this circuit for years now and that doesn’t figure to change any time soon. The Eclipse Award-winning trainer is reportedly loaded for bear again and his impressive maiden winner NONNA’S BOY takes the leap into graded stakes ranks here as likely the horse to beat.

A son of Distorted Humor (sire of Grade 1 Kentucky Derby and Grade 1 Preakness winner Funny Cide), Nonna’s Boy made quite the splash, literally and figuratively in his debut at Belmont June 13. That 5-furlong race was run in the slop but it didn’t bother NONNA’S BOY in the slightest as he cruised out to the early lead and coasted home to win in a romp. He didn’t just win clear (5 1/2 lengths); he won geared down and looked as though there was plenty left in the tank.

Yes, the Beyer Speed Figure didn’t come back overwhelming (74) but a couple things: the race was run on a muddy track and the very nature of such footing means any speed figures need to be taken with a grain of salt. Second, as noted, NONNA’S BOY won geared down. He surely could have run faster. The Beyer would have been higher, too, had been forced to go faster earlier as well. However, he dominated. He didn’t just win clear but the runner-up Bustin It was another four lengths clear of the third horse. Oh, and it’s no small matter Bustin It came right back to win nicely, too.

Most of these young-uns were right on the pace in their races so it could be a bit crowded up front early. However, this is just a 6-furlong race so you WANT to have speed. And, likely there are a couple others in here who are quicker than the others. Either way it shouldn’t hinder NONNA’S BOY. The way he cruised to the lead in his debut indicated he did it under his own power, that he isn’t speed-crazy and wasn’t really ‘sent’. And the fact rider John Velazquez was so easily able to take his foot off the gas in the lane (and get the right response) hints this colt has tractability.

One piece of bad news: everyone else saw how good he looked and knows how well Mr. Pletcher does on the 2-year-old scene so don’t expect to get rich on him with a win wager. He opens at 5-2 on the morning line but a Pletcher juvenile is almost never an overlay; it would be no surprise to see him go favored. However, you may be able to take a horse who is 8-5 on the board and turn that into maybe a 7-2 or 4-1 exacta payoff with the right supporting player. That may well be CINCO CHARLIE, who opens as the 2-1 favorite. An impressive debut winner at Churchill May 9 he came back to then wire his rivals in the Grade 3 Bashford Manor. He may be the speed of the speed here and with his outside post if he can break and clear then he can come over in front of the field, most notably in front of NONNA’S BOY, who breaks from the post to ‘CHARLIE’s immediate left. Or, if NONNA’S BOY proves about as quick and ‘CHARLIE can’t get up and over he can still be in an advantageous spot to ‘BOY’s outside, either hemming him in or hounding him. Either way he figures in a good spot from start to finish.

Another of interest is BESSIE’S BOY (5-1). The son of Smoke Glacken is proven from off the pace as he won his debut at Pimlico April 17 from off the pace. He went to Belmont for the June 20 Tremont, had the speed to grab the lead after lunging at the start, and drew off to win in a romp so he looks like the real deal.

Chocolate Wildcat

Did not beat a strong field at GP as his 5 opponents are now a combined 0 for 6 (43 Beyer top) since that race according to Formulator; it appeared he was in a battle of wills with Javier in the Tremont as he wanted to run early and Castellano was inclined to rate; after steadying along the inside, he had his shot, but was turned away by Bessie's Boy; under gun from rail.

Silverhill

Jumped forward with runner-up effort in Bashford Manor, but just couldn't get the better of Cinco Charlie after battling with that one from the outside; perhaps a change of tactics would help turn the tide, but he draws inside, is surrounded by speedy types, and may be forced to go; barn won the Schuylerville last year with Churchill shipper Bahnah.

Souper Colossal

Horses that were within a head of the leader at the 1st call won all 8 dirt races at MTH on 6/7, so one must wonder if this colt was aided by the track; 4 horses have returned from that heat with the best effort a 47-Beyer performance; visually impressive despite being a bit green; takes good-sized class hike

Big Trouble

Was bet like a stone-cold cinch and didn't disappoint, but there are major questions regarding the quality of that field; the 2nd- and 3rd-place finishers are a combined 0-6 since that heat with a 40 Beyer top; appears to be a good-sized colt with scope for improvement, but needs major Beyer improvement.

Mr. Z

Maiden win was over a second slower than the Bashford Manor, but he threw down fast fractions (91 Moss Pace Rating for 1st call) while engaged in a duel with the runner-up; didn't seem comfortable along the rail on the turn, but came again when switched out in upper stretch; nice to see 2 moves from an inexperienced horse and he should show good speed in here.

Less Than Perfect

Shook loose over Tapeta in his debut to deny an Ohio-bred that returned to graduate with a 43 Beyer; but it's highly unlikely that he'll clear this field early; never got involved in the Victoria vs. impressive odds-on winner and failed to change leads in the stretch; longshot players hope switch to dirt is the answer.

Bessie's Boy

Handled Governmentshutdown at Pimlico and was flattered when that one returned to take 2 in a row including the 75K Rollicking Stakes (83 Beyer top); while Chocolate Wildcat and Castellano were playing tug-of-war early in the Astoria, this one took no prisoners; really liked the way he finished up that race, drawing off under only hands-and-heels urging; top 2yo barn; interesting.

Nonna's Boy

He put the boots to a New York-bred named Bustin It, and that one returned to win by 7, with an 80 Beyer, in the Rockville Centre; broke sharply from the inside post and was ridden out in the stretch; he's fast, well-bred (2nd dam Beyered 103, dam was 3rd in the G1 Frizette) and trained by Pletcher; contender.

Cinco Charlie

Can certainly understand anyone taking a stand against the horses exiting the Bashford Manor as it was contested over a speed-favoring surface, and they ran 1-2-3 around the track; still, this colt was never in danger after dueling with Silverhill and has now earned 2 very solid numbers; outside draw might help although he may have to rate and finish for the first time; factor. - Dan Illman

Race 8

Live Longshot

FADE TO BLACK (#1, 15-1): Potential pacesetter from the rail has ample pedigree for turf, as the daughter of Street Cry filly is out of Desert Song, a half-sister to several multiple grass stakes winners including Justenuffhumor, who captured the Fourstardave and the Bernard Baruch at Saratoga; and Dreaming of Anna, the 2006 champion juvenile filly, who won 8 of 13 starts on the lawn. - Dave Litfin

Fade to Black

Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who was winless from two starts, including a start over turf; her sharp early speed helps give her some appeal, but this isn't a soft spot for her first turf test.

Divine Luck

She's been a very consistent performer racing over turf, but she has just a single victory from 19 starts, and when considering that she's meeting up with a solid group of N1X rivals today, it's tough to back her for the top spot; that said, she shouldn't be counted out of the exotics mix.

Can't Explain

She's G3 stakes placed racing over the main track here, something to consider if this race has to be taken off the turf, but her one turf victory was earned as an odds-on favorite at Monmouth, and she's going to need a career best effort in her first start of 2014 to beat this field; third-place finisher from latest won next out at Aqu on 12/1 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. N1X rivals with an 88 Beyer; Velasquez has won with 7 of 28 (25%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Mei Ling

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and this is the first foal form a dam who won 2 of 11 starts for 98k, including 1 of 4 turf starts for 46k; 500k purchase tests turf for the first time, and Ortiz has won with 13 of 33 (39%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Stock Fund

She's one of two in here who can boast of having three wins next to her name, but this stakes placed miss hasn't been shy about settling for minor awards in her career, and when considering the strength of this filed, the top spot might be out of her reach.

Frege

Reddam-owned miss has proven to be a tough one to gauge since arriving in America, but if she feels up to one of her better performances, she can be very tough to deal with; going to respect her chances while getting over the Saratoga turf for the first time.

Holiday's Jewel

This looks like a tough field for her to be meeting up with, but she does appear to be well meant while going dirt-to-turf for her second start after a layoff and getting back over a turf course that has been kind to her from four starts; not willing to count her out of it.

Da Mi Basia Mille

Full sister to Pure Amour (4-17, 149k over turf) ran very well in two starts over the Saratoga turf as a 2-year-old, and even though there is a long layoff in play, this is an outfit that can have one ready off of a long layoff like this; Lezcano hasn't forgotten about her and she gets Lasix for the first time.

Tasmona

Lightly raced filly is still plenty eligible to have more to show us and she shows up for one of the strongest turf outfits in the country with a go-to rider assigned; Castellano has won with 24 of 72 (33%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Devilish Love

All three of her starts over turf have been good ones and she took a strong step forward along the Beyer Speed Figure scale in her 4-year-old racing debut in her latest outing; runner up from latest won next out at Bel on 7/3 going 6f vs. starter alw. rivals with a 70 Beyer; on a negative note, she does lose the services of Velazquez to another in here.

Weave

She's out of a minor stakes winning dam who won 6 of 18 starts for 242k, including 5 of 16 turf starts for 230k, and this miss is a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes winner Wend (7-14, 579k over turf); she was buried in traffic throughout in her latest start and she had to steady late and avoid a fallen rival; she has every bit the look of a top contender.

Shayjolie

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and minor stakes placed dam won 6 of 14 starts for 146k, including 0-for-1 over turf; this filly is a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes winner Mythical Power (4-19, 821k, no turf starts); turf is a question, but have to respect what she's shown in her two dirt starts.

Neat Package

An extreme outside post awaits in the event that she draws in, but her overall turf form has been solid, and it doesn't hurt to see that she got the job done in her only start over the Saratoga turf.

Lil Honey Badger

Sire wins with approximately 7% of his turf starters and dam won 5 of 26 starts for 150k, including 0-for-3 over turf; this has to be considered a tough step up in class for her turf debut aftet being claimed for 30k from her latest start.

Carameaway

Multiple stakes placed filly will find herself in a decent spot if this race has to be moved to the main track, and she was last seen in a productive race; winner from latest won next out at Bel going 6f in a 95k stakes with a 99 Beyer, and runner up won next out at Bel on 6/21 going 7f in a G3 with a 95 Beyer.

Madre Ditutticapi

No one else in here has four wins next to their name and this filly has shown the ability to dial up a competitive performance against competition of this caliber; she might be better off at shorter distances, but going to respect her chances regardless.

Race 9

Vulnerable Favorite

BATTLE FORCE (#8, 3-1) may have a slight edge figure-wise but 5yo horse now returns off the 15 month layoff against a competitive field; not for me. Chuck Kuehhas

Spot Play

PYRITE MOUNTAIN (#2, 5-1) returns off the nine month layoff and goes first time Pletcher today; last was a key race and prior turf was ok effort with minor placing to Up With the Birds, who won Grade 1 on turf in next start. Chuck Kuehhas

Sandyinthesun

Statebred returns to the scene of a narrow upset score over cheaper last summer; barn hasn't seen the winner's circle this year and this 7 year old has been crushed at long prices in each of his 3 recent cracks at this level; looks to be overlooked in the wagering in this one as well.

Pyrite Mountain

Ships in to make his first local start for the Pletcher barn while returning from 9 months on the shelf here; colt is at his best going long and his most recent try against fellow Canadian breds was a sharp effort at today's trip; don't know that he's as good as some of those that he'll catch here, but he did show a little bit of early foot before hitting the shelf last fall and he draws inside while getting the services of the circuit's top pilot; price figures to be ok for a runner from these connections.

Which Market

Got his nose down to beat cheaper sprinting downstate while making his first start off both this outfit's claim and more than 10 months on the shelf early last month; waters get deeper as he returns to a venue at which he hasn't fared so well; nice to see he's not offered for sale here and he does own solid back efforts at this level; maybe he moves forward with his last behind him, but a minor award may prove to be his ceiling.

Hard Enough

Four year old set the pace from a wide draw in the G2 Monmouth at this trip last time and had little left to offer late in the drive; he's in for the optional tag while dropping in company here and that pace tracking G3 Red Bank score off the freshening 2 back looks good enough to take this heat; there's not a lot of early foot in here so expect he'll be prominent from the bell in his local debut; they'll have to come and get him to win this.

Star Channel

Gets a switch back to the pilot aboard for his most recent score after coming up empty late at a higher level at this trip in Kentucky; 5 year old does own back numbers that fit well here and maybe he's set to take a step forward third time back from the freshening, but his local course record leaves something to be desired.

Most Happy Fella

MTO owns 2 local scores and he wasn't bad in 3 trip starts over the track last summer but it's been a totally different ball game of late for him; 7 year old looked bad in each of his last 2 starts, but note that his last came on the green and he's not particularly fond of that type of footing; he did run ok on a wet track first time out this year and that's the condition he's likely to get if he goes here; expect they'll look to be a little more aggressive with him early if the rains come.

Shock Leader

Shipper switches back to the pilot aboard for his Monmouth score at this trip and level 2 starts back; he certainly likes the green and he brings his run regardless of pace, but though he's dropping a level he does look to face a tough bunch and will need to keep improving to have a say in the outcome here.

Battle Force

Absentee returns from 15 months on the shelf with a series of steady recent drills on his worktab; 5 year old is multiple graded SP on the weeds out west and he ran down stakes foes in a sub-1:33 mile before hitting the bench last year; he clearly has ability and he's run well off a similar break in the past; don't know that we'll see his best today, but he's certainly a huge threat if he brings it.

Casino Dan

Takes the next step up the class ladder after finally breaking through the N1X condition in his third sod try; gelding hasn't exactly shown the ability of his brother, reigning 2 time Horse of the Year Wise Dan, but he does like the surface and the added panel should appeal to him; price figures to be right, but he'll catch a much tougher bunch that he's used to in this spot.

North Star Boy (IRE)

Draws a tough post for his local return after getting beaten just over a length at the trip and level on Belmont Stakes Day; he usually brings his best and did win after encountering trouble over the course last summer; won't have it easy from out here but he does attract a top pilot and merits some consideration.

North Slope

MTO was defeated less than a length when moved to dirt at this level with shades removed at Belmont last out; runner up in the sloppy off the turf G3 Hall of Fame at this trip last year hasn't won in a while but he'd likely benefit from some moisture in the footing; can get in the mix if the rains come.

St Moose

MTO steps up to face a better bunch while stretching out off another solid effort at Belmont; gelding will change hands yet again but he seems to fire for any outfit and he earned a big number winning at 2 turns at this level at Penn National in the spring so the added trip shouldn't pose him much trouble; one to beat if this comes off the green. - Brian Pochman

Race 10

Diana Stakes by Marcus Hersh

There are serious questions to be asked of every contender in the Diana. To these eyes, the non-contenders are Solid Appeal, Abaco, Somali Lemonade, and Caroline Thomas. They’re all solid Grade 2-class middle distance types, and under the right circumstances, any of them could crash the trifecta, but I can’t see any of that group winning.

On to the questions in post position order.

EMOLLIENT: Is she really a Grade 1 horse on grass? The argument for that position is her close fourth, right behind morning-line favorite Alterite, in the Breeders’ Cup F & M Turf, but in that race, over a close-cropped, fast-playing SoCal course not especially compatible to a course like this, she basically just galloped along for a mile and a quarter without quickening all that much. Yes, she exits a near miss in the “Grade 1” Gamely at Santa Anita, but that field was Grade 1 in name only. Her best turf tries both came on SoCal courses? Trainer Mott, on the other hand, has won this race four of the last nine years.

STRATHNAVER: Was her Just a Game a fluke? If so, it was a flying fluke – her last quarter-mile went about as fast as a horse can run a quarter mile at the end of a race. And while that was a career-best from Strathnaver, she does have a couple other starts suggesting the performance level might be sustainable. Her Bewitch in April 2013 featured similarly brilliant acceleration, and that over a 12-furlong trip that now seems farther than her best. Summer 2013 unraveled in the soft-turf Sheepshead Bay, but she quietly got back on track by autumn: Her Lady Baltimore and My Charmer, though against less-than-elite foes, showed Strathnaver back to her fast-finishing self again. She’s of modest size and quite athletic – she should love nine furlongs on this course.

DISCREET MARQ: Can she race effectively over 9 furlongs in high-class company? She beat the decent but hardly G1-class Wishing Gate at this distance, but came up short when run down by Alterite in the Garden City. She’s basically a free-running filly who, thanks to diligent work by the barn, has learned to harness her speed. Respect her, but think she’ll prove more comfortable in the end letting it rip in races at about a mile.

ALTERITE: Is she ready for a representative effort in her first start since the Breeders’ Cup while coming back from an ankle injury? She won fresh late last summer, and clearly the barn is aces with long-term comebackers, but it’s taken the filly time to make it back, and it’d be no surprise if a few cobwebs still are hanging around. In my mind she’s the “best” horse in the race, and going forward she’s the one I’d want, but while I’d dabble with her in a top exotics slot, I’d focus more underneath.

STEPHANIE’S KITTEN: Is she ever getting back to her best form? The barn change from Catalano, who developed the filly from early in her 2-year-old season, has not worked so far. She’s not always been the most straightforward horse (nagging hind end issues about this time last year). Very flat in her seasonal bow at Keeneland and fell out the back door in the Just a Game, but in a flash she came galloping out in front of the field just past the finish last time. She’s gotten in plenty of work since, and there’s the chance that advancing in age she might prefer 9 furlongs to one mile. The bandwagon has cleared considerably, which often is a good time to hop on.

TANNERY: Is nine furlongs too short? I think yes, though the same connections won this race last year with Laughing, who also seemed better at longer distances. No shame in closing for second behind the sharp Riposte last time, but I’d be surprised if she can quicken enough to win this. Strathnaver probably will be bet below her morning line, but still might offer playable win odds. She and Stephanie’s Kitten would boost any trifecta or exacta payoff with a win. Use at least Alterite among the other major players in multi-race wagers.

Spot Play

STRATHNAVER (#5, 10-1) was game in defeat in the Just A Game last time, a race which was light on speed; she rallied nicely there despite the pace scenario, and she was also against the race flow in prior losses. -Kenny Peck

Solid Appeal

Multiple graded stakes winner deserves a lot of credit for getting the job done in five of 11 turf starts, and she should have every opportunity to sit a comfortable trip after breaking out of post one; however, she's probably going to need to see a number of these show up with less than their best to have a chance at the top spot.

Abaco

Grade 3 winner earned a career best Beyer Speed Figure when last seen and the winner from that race returned to win next out at Bel on 6/28 going 1 1/4m in a G2 with a 97 Beyer; over the past three years this barn has won with 30 of 104 (29%) starters in graded stakes races run over turf.

Somali Lemonade

Have to give this multiple graded stakes winning mare credit for the way that she's reinvented herself with the addition of blinkers four starts back, and she might have found the early pace to be a little too hot for her to handle in her latest start; others entice more, but can't deny her sharp recent form.

Emollient

She's a Grade 1 winner over turf and synthetic, and if she's ready to deliver a top try, she'll prove to be very tough to tackle; third-place finisher from latest won next out at SA on 6/28 going 1m over turf in a G2 with an 85 Beyer; Rosario has won with 21 of 93 (23%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Strathnaver (GB)

Grade 3 winner ran big off of a layoff in her latest outing and she was the victim of one of the worst head bobs you'll ever see; not only that, but had she been able to find a clear path a few strides sooner she would have likely been a clear winner; she's been the type that has had a knack for finding trouble in her races, but she commands her share of respect based on what she showed us last time.

Discreet Marq

Generazio-homebred has a G1 win over turf to her credit, and even though she ran well off of a layoff in her latest outing while earning one of her stronger Beyer Speed Figures, it just didn't feel like that was one of her better performances; she's an interesting option to consider while being returned to action on normal rest for the first time since October.

Caroline Thomas

She's a G2 winner over this turf course by way of disqualification, and even though she's always kind of hinted at having G1 ability, she's just never taken that next step; have always had a lot of respect for this miss, and wouldn't consider her a total shocker, but prefer to look toward others.

Alterite (FR)

It's tough to knock anything this G1 winner has done since arriving in America, and even though there's a long layoff in play, she's run well when fresh in the past and this barn is more than capable of having one ready for a top try after a long absence; Castellano has won with 24 of 72 (33%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Stephanie's Kitten

She helps give the barn of Chad Brown a strong looking 1-2 punch in this event, and like Emollient, this mare is a G1 winner over turf and synthetic; that said, a case can be made for her being at her best at distances shorter than today's 1 1/8m assignment, and even though Dettori lands here, there might be something to be said for Velazquez piloting another in this one.

Tannery (IRE)

She adds to the list of G1 winners signed on in this event and she might be rounding into career best form as she gets ready to make her third start back from a layoff and her third start as a 5-year-old; the filly that beat her last time has really developed her game, and she would merit more than her fair share of consideration if she was signed on in this spot. - Brian Pochman

Race 11

Jonrah

Gelding has had his chances in this league; at least he got a little confidence booster in last; place horse 4/24 cashed next out in the $125K Kingston and then was 2nd beaten 2 and a quarter in a $144K stakes; like fact he came up and got a local work under the girth; sharp, but probably needs to improve to repeat.

All Included

Colt took overland route in the debut, flashed a bit of speed two back and maybe he just wanted grass all along; place horse in the shore effort took a MSW next out with an 83 Beyer; the blood is there as he is kin to Grade 2 winner and near $250K earner Sarach; respect.

Alarmed Ndangerous

Pro split the cast in last but may need state-breds to shine; he can be his own worst enemy since he has limited speed; a slice may be the ceiling here.

Z Lucky

Zensational 1 for 21 with first-time turfers; sire won multiple G1s, lost only start at 2, earned nearly $700K, never turfed; dam took 2 sprints, never turfed; this is her first to race; graduated for a tag and was briefly on the Triple Crown Trail; been given time since the eventful CD finale but that race came back live; the place and show horses took N1X frays next out with 88 and 94 Beyers respectively; lean toward watching a local win.

It Matters

Never simple to beat winners right back especially when you graduate for a tag vs. state-breds; he has a shot to have a nice career as kin to near $300K earner Southern Fiction; needs very best.

Alakazan Alakazan (BRZ)

Was just totally over his head when chasing Wise Dan 2 back; if you figure he just needed the last you can build a case for a move forward; this racer looks live.

McIlroy

Gelding has been pretty consistent since entering this barn; he never looked comfortable in last and the winner last time repeated in a $62.5K optional with a 92 Beyer; must respect everything from this barn.

Lurego

Decent rally between horses in last; 5/24 show horse cashed next out in an N1X at Presque Isle, then was out of the money in Divine Oath's Arlington Derby; Leparoux got a chance to figure him out and the future is bright as he is kin to G1 winner and over $1.3 million earner Turallure; contention goes long.

Happy Fella

Don't be too harsh about last few really want to go that far these days; he has more speed than he flashed in last; like the series of drills since the last effort; things need to break just right.

Stableford (GB)

Who was he facing across the pond?; the winner 7/12 last year is one for 5 since and the win was by a head in an $11.6K event; would be careful here.

Make a Decision

Empire-bred is coming off a career Beyer; 5/10 show horse cashed next out in a $50K Canterbury optional with a 71 Beyer; note he won in the second off the layoff run last October; he has a right to grow into his skin as kin to G2 winner and near millionaire J'ray.

Bingo Kitten

The fact he won the debut gives him a chance to fire fresh; hung out to dry last time, he sure finished with interest; place horse in last took an N1X next and the 10th finisher took a $16K N2L in Chicago; look for Rosario to take a little hold, try to save ground, then make the one run.

Street Gent

Can't be thrilled with the grass race so far; 2/21 place horse took a $70K Louisiana-bred stakes next out; show horse 2/21 took a $75K optional, lost next pair; not sold on chances.

Forever Thing

Runner was 3-1 on the morning line in an N1X going a mile and 3 eighths here Friday as a MTO runner; considering he was wide, the return was not all that bad; legit player if he gets a chance to suit up.

Matuszak

Colt was 5-2 on the line in the same race Forever Thing entered; he has not ducked anybody in his career; backers have to hope they go bonkers early and the race falls completely apart. - Brian Mulligan