EDITOR'S NOTE: The following is a free preview of Daily Racing Form's new Betting Strategies product. Betting Strategies will be available for Saturday and Sunday cards ($14.95 each) during the Del Mar and Saratoga meets. You can purchase Betting Strategies by clicking here. Daily Racing Form New York handicapper Mike Beer and TimeformUS handicapper David Aragona provide their selections, analysis, and suggested wagers for the Saturday, July 18, 2020, card at Saratoga. Schedule Top 4 picks for each race on the card (Posted Thursday evening) Analysis of the top races on the card (Posted Friday evening) Betting strategies (tickets you can play) for each race based on the analysis (Posted Friday evening) Tickets for multi-leg tickets (Posted Friday evening) If necessary, picks, analysis, and suggested wagers will be updated after key scratches on Saturday. Saratoga Full-Card Selections Race 1: Md Sp Wt 72k Mike Beer David Aragona 3 - Mo Mischief 5 - Holland 1 - Bajan Rum 6 - Repo Rocks 6 - Repo Rocks 5 - Holland 3 - Mo Mischief 1 - Bajan Rum Race 2: Str Alw 55k Mike Beer David Aragona 3 - Winning Factor 1 - Mr. Kringle 4 - Battalion 5 - Kilornan 1 - Mr. Kringle 3 - Winning Factor 5 - Kilronan 4 - Battalion Race 3: G2 National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Mike Beer David Aragona 7 - Decorated Invader 1 - Domestic Spending 2 - Moon Over Miami 6 - Ever Dangerous 7 - Decorated Invader 1 - Domestic Spending 3 - Get Smokin 2 - Moon Over Miami Race 4: Clm 32k Mike Beer David Aragona 6 - Jump for Joy 1 - Baby Boss 3 - Queen Kahen 4 - Archumybaby 1 - Baby Boss 3 - Queen Kahen 4 - No Deal 7 - Letmetakethiscall Race 5: Md Sp Wt 72k Mike Beer David Aragona 7 - Patriot Game 6 - Oak Hill 9 - The Angry Man 10 - Red Flag Alert 4 - Conglomerate 9 - The Angry Man 10 - Red Flag Alert 6 - Oak Hill Race 6: Md Sp Wt 72k Mike Beer David Aragona 3 - Nautilus 2 - The Right Stuff 10 - Pivotal Mission 1 - Rip It 9 - Girl Dad 3 - Nautilus 1 - Rip It 10 - Pivotal Mission Race 7: NY Alw 74000 N1X Mike Beer David Aragona 3 - Blindwillie McTell 5 - Cucina 2 - Binkster 1 - Yaupon 1 - Yaupon 3 - Blindwillie McTell 2 - Binkster 6 - The Sicarii Race 8: Clm 25k Mike Beer David Aragona 7 - Shalako 8 - Flowers for Lisa 9 - Hammerin Aamer 6 - Musical Heart 2 - Kumar 9 - Hammerin Aamer 1 - Hoffenheim 3 - Creative Style Race 9: OC 80k/N3X Mike Beer David Aragona 6 - Set Piece 7 - Digital Age 2 - Ramsey Solution 1 - Red Right Hand 6 - Set Piece 7 - Digital Age 2 - Ramsey Solution 9 - Monarchs Glen Race 10: G1 Coaching Club American Oaks Mike Beer David Aragona 5 - Crystal Ball 1 - Tonalist's Shape 6 - Paris Lights 2 - Antoinette 1 - Tonalist's Shape 6 - Paris Lights 5 - Crystal Ball 2 - Antoinette Race 11: Md Sp Wt 62k Mike Beer David Aragona 4 - Midnight Whiskey 2 - American Piper 9 - Farragut 7 - Papa Luke 7 - Papa Luke 4 - Midnight Whiskey 9 - Farragut 2 - American Piper Like what you see? Click here to learn about our brand new product. Mike and David’s joint late pick five Mike and David put their heads together to come up with a late pick five wager that incorporates both of their opinions. (Detailed analysis wagers for each of these races can be found below.) Pick five starting in Race 7   All A’s: 1, 3 with 2, 3, 7, 9 with 6 with 1, 5 with 4, 7 ($16) A’s with One B: 1, 3 with 1, 8 with 6 with 1, 5 with 4, 7 ($8) 1, 3 with 2, 3, 7, 9 with 6 with 6 with 4, 7 ($8) 1, 3 with 2, 3, 7, 9 with 6 with 1, 5 with 2, 9, 10 ($24) A’s with Two B’s: 1, 3 with 1, 8 with 6 with 6 with 4, 7 ($4) 1, 3 with 1, 8 with 6 with 1, 5 with 2, 9, 10 ($12) 1, 3 with 2, 3, 7, 9 with 6 with 6 with 2, 9, 10 ($12) A’s with One C: 2 with 2, 3, 7, 9 with 6 with 1, 5 with 4, 7 ($8) 1, 3 with 2, 3, 7, 9 with 7 with 1, 5 with 4, 7 ($16) 1, 3 with 2, 3, 7, 9 with 6 with 1, 5 with 1 ($8) Total: $108 Race 2: Alw 50000s Mike’s Analysis: #1 Mr. Kringle has been pegged at 4-5 odds on the morning line and is clearly the horse to beat as he drops out of a respectable effort for third in the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge. He hasn't necessarily improved since winning his turf debut late last year at Aqueduct, but he has placed in three stakes since then and is going to appreciate this class relief for the underrated John Terranova. I don't see having a lot of money in against him, but I thought both #3 Winning Factor and #4 Battalion might have something to offer in this race, more so the former. Battalion ran well in his turf debut while showing speed back in January, and he did not have particularly good trips in either of his next two starts. The drop in class did the trick last time as he made the first move into that race before holding off the underachieving Scanno, who lost again here on opening day for a higher claiming tag. He is logically spotted for his first start out of the maiden ranks. Winning Factor settled for either second or third in four of his five turf starts turf starts earlier this year at Gulfstream, but he didn't exactly underachieve in any of those races while never going favored. His form has improved since arriving in New York for David Donk and adding blinkers. He was very unlucky not to win his first start at Belmont when enduring a nightmare journey through the stretch. Brought back at the same level three weeks later, he pushed his way off the inside past midstretch and went on to win that race easily while earning a competitive figure. Donk doesn't have great numbers with last-out maiden winners, but this horse can still be an interesting alternative at the right price. David’s Response: Mike and I basically have the same take on this race. The only difference is that I wasn’t bold enough to put #3 Winning Factor on top. He’s definitely the most likely horse to upset the favorite, though he doesn’t exactly fit the profile of a horse that would win consecutive races. All I really have to say about the favorite #1 Mr. Kringle is that his connections found a great spot for him. Often these starter-allowance events just boil down to one question: Which horse best fits the conditions of this race? And it’s clearly Mr. Kringle, who is only eligible to race against these inferior horses because he was offered for a tag in his career debut. I’m not going to push too hard for a favorite, but I wasn’t interested in investing much money against him. Mike’s Plays (Race 2): Exacta Box: 1 with 3 Double: 3 with 7 Pick four: 1, 3 with 7 with 1, 3, 6 with 6, 7, 9, 10 Race 3: Hall of Fame (G2) David’s Analysis: Christophe Clement is finally allowing his two standout 3-year-old turf specialists to face off against each other – or so it seems. It’s unclear if #5 Gufo will actually wind up competing in this race. He would be running back on just two weeks’ rest, and Clement has stated that he’s entered this one merely to keep his options open. He also suggested that perhaps Gufo would be the one to compete if it rained Friday. On his merits, Gufo is certainly good enough to win a race like this, but I do think that he benefited from some favorable trips and setups in his victories at Gulfstream. He got the job done in the Kent, but didn’t exactly win with the ease of a 3-5 shot. I tend to agree with the prevailing opinion that #7 Decorated Invader is the superior horse in his barn. This colt ran well in his 3-year-old debut, and then stepped things up a notch last time in the Pennine Ridge. Joel Rosario gave him a great ride, slipping through on the rail approaching the quarter pole, but Decorated Invader did all the rest. What I found most encouraging was the manner in which he won, as he showed better tactical speed and still produced the same finishing kick. That’s the sign of a horse who has really figured out the game. He won’t be much of a price, but I’m not trying to beat him. The other horse to consider is #1 Domestic Spending. We don’t yet know quite how good he is. This English-bred has won each of his two starts with a late burst of speed, doing just what was needed to hit the wire in front. I was fairly impressed with the way he overcame a slow pace last time in an event where few others made up any ground from the back of the pack. This is a significant step up in class, but I’d hardly be shocked if he’s up to the challenge. He’s the main backup behind the favorite. Mike’s Response: It looks like David and I agree on this race. I have been impressed with #1 Domestic Spending, but the only way to bet him in this spot is if you are taking a stand against #7 Decorated Invader – and I am not. David’s Plays (Race 3): Exacta: 7 with 1 Exacta: 1 with 7 (smaller backup) Race 4: Clm 32000 Mike’s Analysis: #1 Baby Boss has speed from the rail, and she was running races when last seen that would make her a near cinch in this race. She actually held her own versus some much better horses in her final two starts of 2019, and one start before that, she easily wired the Arctic Queen at Finger Lakes with a Beyer Speed Figure of 88. She returns from a layoff of more than 200 days on the drop, and there is some other speed in this race, but she is going to be tough if close to ready. I am taking a small shot against her with #6 Jump for Joy. This mare was claimed by Mertkan Kantarmaci early last year out of a win for $14K, and she improved to win four of her next six starts while stepping up in class. She showed signs of going off form toward the end of 2019, and it seems that getting a break during the shutdown in racing on this circuit back in March did her some good. She returned from more than four months on the sidelines to just miss last month while improving her figure, and she has the tactical speed to land the right trip here if the favorite winds up on a contested pace. David’s Response: At first glance #1 Baby Boss looks almost too good to be true, which has to make you a little concerned about the drop in class. Yet as I pondered the issue, I think it’s a more reasonable move than I initially thought. She’s a 5-year-old New York-bred who has won all of her open-company allowance conditions. So where else is she going to go at this point? She basically has to run against stakes company from here on out, and she’s hardly a cinch to win those races. So they’re dropping her at Saratoga. I get it. I suppose Letmetakethiscall could apply pressure early, and that works against her, but I thought she would probably beat this field. I also couldn’t really latch onto any of the alternatives. I considered putting #3 Queen Kahen on top, as I do think she’s the best option of those who could be square prices. She ran plenty of races for Ed Barker over the winter that make her a perfect fit for a race like this. Her recent form leaves something to be desired, but she had no chance on turf two back, and last time she was compromised by an awkward start. Mike’s Plays (Race 4): Win: 6 Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1, 3 Race 5: Maiden Special Weight David’s Analysis: Let’s be honest: This isn’t the toughest maiden special weight we’re going to see during the Saratoga meet, as these 3-year-old-and-up maiden turf events typically attract more apparent quality than what we’re getting here. In terms of prior turf route form, there’s little to be found, so we’re forced to do some guesswork. #9 The Angry Man makes a ton of sense. He’s trying the turf for the first time, but he’s certainly bred to handle it. Summer Front is a solid turf influence, connecting with 17 percent of his turf-route starters. His dam was a turf/synthetic specialist who won a minor stakes on grass. Additionally, his best half-sibling is Jaylan, a minor turf winner in France who competes in optional claimers in the United States. The one issue with this horse is that he’s probably going to be favored due to his superior dirt speed figures, and not necessarily because there’s some universal awareness of his pedigree. Generally, horses like this are poor wagers. Of those with turf form, #6 Oak Hill probably merits respect, but I’m not necessarily convinced that added distance is going to help him. He’s got a pedigree that suggests he can route, but that makes it all the more curious that he debuted at 5 1/2 furlongs. Plus, Al Stall also has poor numbers with these stretch-outs on turf. I’d be slightly more inclined to consider #10 Red Flag Alert. He didn’t run particularly well in his debut, but he was facing a significantly better field than this. He cost a massive sum based on a very impressive sales workout last year, and I suspect that he’ll have more to offer this time. Yet I’m going in a different direction. If you can’t tell, I’m just not thrilled with those who have experience, so I’m taking a first-time starter. #4 Conglomerate goes out for Chad Brown, who is exceptionally dangerous in these races. Let’s consult DRF Formulator: Over the past five years, Chad Brown is 14 for 46 (30%, $2.79 ROI) with 3-year-old and up first-time starters in maiden special weight turf routes at NYRA tracks. And even more remarkably, within that sample he is 5 for 9 (54%, $5.12 ROI) with such horses at Saratoga. These older firsters just win for him. Plus, I liked his sales work from 2019, and he’s bred to be a turf horse through and through. Some may view it as a negative that Conglomerate was entered and scratched from a $75,000 maiden-claiming race on Belmont Stakes Day, but I doubt Brown would have been saving this one for a Saratoga maiden special weight if he thought so poorly of the horse. Mike’s Response: Like David, I thought #9 The Angry Man made a lot of sense in this spot, but he is the kind of horse I like to fool around with when they are going to get overlooked, which could have been the case had this field come up a little stronger. He's not my kind of horse at any short price. That Chad Brown has strong numbers with horses like #4 Conglomerate is not really surprising and, from a wagering perspective, it's also not really the point. These horses get bet whether or not they have something to recommend them (most of them do have something). They also usually have an equally compelling stablemate in the same race, which splits the money, leading to some seemingly overlaid prices. That was the case with each of his five winners in the impressive Formulator stat. I won't be surprised when Conglomerate wins. I will be when he does so at a fair price. I don't have much interest in betting this race with serious money. I wanted to take #10 Red Flag Alert for all of the reasons David pointed to. I also will use #7 Patriot Game somewhere. That this horse went off a 50-1 in his debut is almost impossible to believe. Even if leaflets were dropped from above, notifying everyone that this horse couldn't stand up, you'd have to think he would take more money than that simply based on pedigree (he's a half-brother to Derby winner Orb by a hot young sire) and connections. He didn't exactly outrun his odds first time out but, as David made mention of distance in his analysis, this horse is bred to want the added ground and he was staying on late in that debut, before carrying on well past the wire. David’s Plays (Race 5): Win: 4 Exacta Key Box: 4 with 6, 7, 9, 10 Double: 4, 6, 7, 9, 10 with 9 Race 6: Maiden Special Weight Mike’s Analysis: This maiden special for 2-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles on turf is not short on interesting pedigrees for top barns, and it will be interesting to see who winds up taking money and who goes overlooked. Without going too in-depth, the more attractive firsters to me, from a pedigree perspective, were the #2 The Right Stuff and the #10 Pivotal Mission. The sticking point with those two runners is that their trainers, Wesley Ward and Graham Motion, do not have a recent history of success with horses like this. Ward is 1 for 26 over the past five years with 2-year-olds debuting in turf routes, with a paltry $0.29 ROI. Motion is 2 for his last 44 under those same parameters, $0.28 ROI. I'm going to leave them open at the right price(s) but went to an experienced runner for my top pick. That horse is #3 Nautilus. Nautilus has made two starts sprinting on dirt so far, and he showed some potential in those races. He bumped into the razor-sharp Cazadero (81 Beyer, returned to win the Bashford Manor with an 80) on debut and kicked on with a solid late finish after being outpaced early. Stretched out a furlong for his second start, he did not go aggressively after breaking more alertly from the gate and wound up in an uncomfortable position down on the inside for most of the running. He has some pedigree to handle the stretch-out as well as the surface switch, and Brad Cox has excellent numbers with horses like this – past five years, maiden special, non-first-time starter, first-time turf: 21 for 54, 39%, $2.80 ROI; 8 for 19 going sprint to route in that sample, 42%, $3.92 ROI. David’s Response: I think Mike covered the merits and issues regarding the first-time starters in this race quite well. I’d use the horses he mentioned defensively, while obviously monitoring the tote board. I agree that #3 Nautilus is the logical choice among those with experience. I’ll just add that those Cox stats that Mike cited become even stronger when you restrict the sample to just 2-year-olds. He looks like the horse to beat. Yet this race looks wide open, and I didn’t want to settle for a potential favorite, so I’m going to take a shot with another second-time starter. #9 Girl Dad didn’t do a great deal of running in his five-furlong debut, but I get the sense that he may really benefit from that start. He struck me as one of the horses from that June 12 heat that might want more ground, whereas some others, like today’s rival Zippy Baby, seem more cut out to be sprinters. George Weaver is 5 for 16 (31%, $2.56 ROI) with 2-year-olds going from sprints to turf routes over the past five years. While Girl Dad’s immediate female family doesn’t exactly suggest that he’s crying out for more ground, there’s actually a ton of stamina in this pedigree if you dig into the second generation of his family. He’s going to be a big price in this spot, and I think he can outrun his odds. Mike’s Plays (Race 6): Win: 3 (at 7-2 odds or better) Double: 3 with 3 Race 7: Allowance N1X David’s Analysis: We’re faced with a decision that often arises in these N1X allowance races. Either you want the seasoned New York-breds with multiple wins under their belts, or you prefer the open-company maiden winner. In this particular scenario, I want the latter. #1 Yaupon comes off a debut win at Churchill Downs in which he beat a fellow first-time starter by a nose, the two of them drawing off from the field by a considerable margin. I feel this colt put in a very encouraging effort. He broke in midpack and rated kindly on the backstretch before making an early advance to the lead on the turn. He took over in upper stretch, but was quickly headed by Mountain Air, who threatened to run right by him. Yet Yaupon dug in with serious determination to fend off that rival. Yaupon only earned an 81 Beyer for the victory, but there is evidence to suggest it was a stronger race than that speed figure would indicate. Third-place finisher Savvy’s last three Beyer Speed Figures are 81-70-84, while fourth-place finisher Lucky Asset’s last three figures are 78-67-77. In both cases, the low middle number was earned when they finished behind Yaupon, and each came out of that race to run 11 points faster – back to the figures they had earned before facing Yaupon. Therefore, I think it’s at least worth entertaining the possibility that Yaupon ran a faster race than it seems. And even if you’re not getting in the weeds with me regarding his speed figure, Yaupon just looks like he’s going to get a perfect trip in this race. The TimeformUS Pace Projector shows him on a clear early lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. He’s not necessarily a need-the-lead type, but you would imagine the plan would be to send him from the inside post position. This horse has a pedigree to be a runner, and I think we’re likely to see a step forward second time out. The other two runners to consider are those New York-breds, Binkster and Blindwillie McTell. #2 Binkster would be dangerous if they elected to rate Yaupon, because then he becomes the controlling speed. I just think Binkster is generally a cut below these fields he faces at the open N1X level, though he does have speed figures that put him in the mix. #3 Blindwillie McTell has a bit more upside than Binkster. He would be tough here if he merely got back to his 3-year-old form, but his lone 2020 start was pretty discouraging. He has a right to rebound, but now he’s returning from another layoff and he may need a start to shake off the rust. Mike’s Response: I have no argument with #1 Yaupon andconsider him the horse to beat, if only because of the questions surrounding #3 Blindwillie McTell, who I think will win this race if he is ready off the layoff. He is hard to trust, but he may not be favored for Linda Rice, who was quiet at Belmont all summer but won two races on opening day, one of those off a January layoff. David’s Plays (Race 7): Exacta: 1 with 2, 3 Trifecta: 1 with 3 with 2, 4, 5, 6 Race 8: Clm 25000 Mike’s Analysis: Some races are much more interesting from a wagering perspective than others, and this $25K claimer for older dirt routers is one I do not want to have a lot of money tied up in. When all was said and done from the handicapping side of things, there just wasn't anyone in this field I felt very comfortable advocating too hard for. I don't have anything against the two favorites on David's morning line, #9 Hammerin Aamer (5-2) and #3 Creative Style (3-1), and thought they were logical horses to use in multi-race wagers. They both bring solid recent form into this race and, while this may not be the ideal distance for either of them, they both can get it under the right circumstances. I have never been much of a fan of #8 Flowers for Lisa but thought it was pretty clear that he would win this race if he could manage to show up with his good race off the trainer change to Robertino Diodoro. I just have no confidence that he can do that. I am taking a small shot with #7 Shalako, and I'll keep it short. He has the back races to be a real factor in this kind of race, was in decent form for Rudy Rodriguez before the break, and, as opposed to some others in here, he has proven form going longer around two turns. David’s Response: I definitely empathize with Mike’s struggle to come to a decision in this race, as I also found it difficult to get a feel for this one. If forced to choose between those two favorites, I’d have to take #9 Hammerin Aamer, who seems a little more convincing going this distance and just sports rock-solid recent form. I don’t blame Mike for trying to advocate for a price in this race, but I couldn’t really latch onto to either of the horses that he mentioned. I definitely gave a long look to #7 Shalako, but ultimately decided he was a bit too cheap for my liking. Mike is more willing to give horses like #8 Flowers for Lisa a second lease on life than I am. Until this one proves that he can finish a race for a trainer other than Jorge Navarro, I don’t want any part of him. I’m actually most interested in Rudy Rodriguez’s other horse #2 Kumar. I think they made a mistake trying to go back to turf with this horse. I know that it seemed like grass would be a viable option after he ran so well on that surface in late 2019, but those performances were somewhat aided by circumstances, particularly that Oct. 4 victory when he got to track a slow pace that compromised the closers. Kumar’s dirt form is a little spotty, but he’s clearly good enough to beat a field like this on his best day. I also think he puts forth his best efforts when they ride him aggressively, and Junior Alvarado is sure to notice that he last won on this horse in gate-to-wire fashion. Flowers for Lisa may be faster in the early going, but this inside post position going 1 1/8 miles can be a big advantage for Kumar if he can get out of the gate sharply. Mike’s Plays (Race 8): Double: 7, 9 with 6 Pick three: 3, 7, 9 with 6 with 5 Race 9: OC 80k/N3X David’s Analysis: #6 Set Piece made an auspicious U.S. debut at Churchill Downs last month, launching a relentless rally from far back to win with ease over classy veteran Ballagh Rocks. The visual impression he left was strong, and an analysis of the fractions reveals that his effort was an extraordinary one. They were moving pretty slowly up front, and Set Piece had to produce a blazing final quarter-mile split to carry him past his foes. This is a situation where the 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure (which includes a bonus for his pace disadvantage) more accurately captures his performance than a final time-based speed figure can. Based on that kind of number, he’s a graded stakes horse. Furthermore, there were hints that such a breakout performance was on the horizon last year. The Timeform foreign comments note that he had a breathing operation prior to winning his final start in Europe, which resulted in a 120 Timeform Rating, albeit over synthetic. I’m a fan of this horse, and I think this is merely a stepping-stone to some higher-level races later in the year. #7 Digital Age has a similar running style to Set Piece, but he’s just struggled to find the winner’s circle ever since the 2019 American Turf. In fairness to this horse, he has had plenty of excuses, especially toward the tail end of his 3-year-old season. He was asked to go distances that were too far for him, and he caught a number of slow paces that didn’t jibe with his running style. The biggest issue that I have with him is that he was supposed to win last time. He got a pretty good trip in that June 20 allowance, following eventual winner Breaking the Rules into the clear at the quarter pole, but he was just one-placed over the final furlongs. And in all likelihood, Set Piece is just a better horse than Breaking the Rules. As far as I’m concerned, the others are fringe players. I suppose a horse like #2 Ramsey Solution could be dangerous if left alone up front, but that seems unlikely with Red Right Hand and Noble Indy in the field. Mike’s Response: David and I are in total agreement on this race, and I will add nothing to his analysis. David’s Plays (Race 9): Exacta: 6 with 2, 7 Trifecta: 6 with 7 with 1, 2, 9 Pick three: 6 with 1, 5, 6 with 4, 7 Pick three: 6 with 1 with 1, 2, 9, 10 Race 10: Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) Mike’s Analysis: This is clearly not a stellar edition of the CCA Oaks, with none of the divisional leaders anywhere in sight. That is not meant to give a cold shoulder to #1 Tonalist's Shape, of whom I have been a fan from the start, but it's not like she doesn't still have much to prove here at a short price. She is already a multiple graded stakes winner and, while her figures aren't going to scare anyone away, she does own the top two Beyers in this field. Again, I like her, and have always felt that added distance wasn't going to work too much against her, I just wasn't much interested in betting on her at a short price in this race. I wanted to pick #3 Altaf and almost did. She appeared to be prepping on turf first time out before returning with a strong effort going a one-turn mile on dirt at Churchill in her second start. I want her going forward, but have a feeling she will be an uninteresting price come post time, which ultimately moved me in another direction. After first looking away from #5 Crystal Ball, I wound up coming back and think she is the most interesting of the fillies stepping up in class in this particular race. She raced very greenly and never really picked up with a run when defeated by a stablemate in her career debut. Brought back a month later to face only three others, Crystal Ball was much more into the race from the start and, despite facing a weak field, she had her rivals off the bridle around the turn, before strolling in to an easy win. Maybe the blinkers will have the favorite racing forward from the rail, but I thought Crystal Ball would be on the lead once again in this spot and think that being in that position could be a significant advantage in this race. David’s Response: This CCA Oaks brings to mind my rambling dissertation on the Manhattan a few weeks ago, in which I agonized over every alternative to Instilled Regard before ultimately coming back to, and picking, the favorite. Don’t worry – I’ll get straight to the point this time. I’ve never been much of a fan of #1 Tonalist’s Shape, but all this filly does is win races, and it’s not like she hasn’t beaten some good horses before. For instance, Spice Is Nice would be a prohibitive favorite in her own right if she were running back in this race, and Tonalist’s Shape soundly defeated that filly when they met in the Davona Dale. I know her Beyer dipped down in the Hollywood Wildcat last time, but that race has subsequently been flattered by runbacks. Runner-up Dream Marie nearly upset the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks with an 84 Beyer a few weeks ago, Pleasant Orb was second in the Acorn, and fourth-place finisher Up in Smoke returned to win a sprint with an 82 Beyer. It is a little weird that Tonalist’s Shape’s connections are adding blinkers for this start. She appeared to be uncharacteristically aggressive while wearing them in that June 28 workout, which is mildly concerning. But that’s hardly reason enough for me to look elsewhere. I just think she’s the most likely winner, and I don’t even think it’s that close. I have no strong arguments against Mike’s pick, #5 Crystal Ball. She’s heading in the right direction, and Bob Baffert has insanely strong stats in this situation, going 11 for 19 (58%, $4.44 ROI) in Grade 1 dirt routes at NYRA tracks over the past five years. The real enigma in this race is #3 Altaf. I acknowledge that I may have been a little generous pegging her at 5-1, given that there’s some hype around her. While she was visually impressive last time, that was a slow race and horses that finished behind her have not exactly returned to flatter the effort. I just think she has a lot to prove and isn’t worth the gamble if she gets bet down off the line. In my opinion, #6 Paris Lights is by far the best option of the horses exiting Churchill Downs. Mike’s Plays (Race 10): Win: 5 Exacta: 5 with 1 Smaller Exactas: 5 with 3, 6 Double: 5 with 4, 9 Race 11: Maiden Special Weight David’s Analysis: This is one of those “only in Saratoga” maiden races – anything but straightforward and ripe for something weird to happen. We need to discuss the first-time starters, because that is where most of this “weirdness” is stemming from. What’s up with #2 American Piper? Why is top rider Irad Ortiz Jr. accepting the mount on a $12,000 horse shipping up from Pimlico for a trainer who hasn’t won a race since 2014? Well, I would guess that the work tab has something to do with it. You just rarely see horses debuting off so many swift five-furlong and six-furlong drills, unless they’re trained by Bob Baffert! Who knows if this trainer can have a horse ready to win first time (he’s 0 for 6 with firsters since the year 2000, according to Equibase), but it’s not like he’d have to be a superstar to beat this field. I don’t typically go for horses like this and it feels like he could attract tote support just for the sheer novelty of it all, but I’m certainly scared of him. The Peter Kazamias entry doesn’t look quite as strange as American Piper, but they also come into this race with a fast series of workouts for low-profile connections that aren’t really known for first-out success. At the very least, one or both are likely to show speed. I’m focusing mostly on those with experience, because that’s who typically wins these races. I guess #4 Midnight Whiskey is the horse to beat. He actually ran pretty well last time, setting a fast pace and turning back multiple challenges before getting swallowed up by closers in the final jump. He’s a need-the-lead type who will try to run them off their feet, so we’ll see how much pressure he gets. I’m not thrilled with him, but I acknowledge that he makes sense. I’m giving the slight nod to #7 Papa Luke. Like Midnight Whiskey, he still has to prove that he can be effective over a fast track, but I liked his second start at Belmont. A couple speedy types ran off in the early stages, creating some separation through a fast opening quarter. Papa Luke tracked them closely and took over from there, opening a clear advantage in upper stretch before a closer reeled him in. I thought he ran very well within the context of that race, and I don’t think that field was any weaker than the one Midnight Whiskey faced. I like that Papa Luke is drawn outside of most of the other speed and the slight cutback to six furlongs should help him. Mike’s Response: The firsters certainly add something to this race, making it more than just a run-of-the-mill maiden special for New York-breds. I agree that the #1-1A entry and #2 American Piper are interesting. In multi-race wagers, I'll cover them, at least defensively, but I don't like to play first-time starters unless there are no other viable options, which I think there are in this race. I was more interested in #4 Midnight Whiskey than I was #7 Papa Luke but, since they are both speed-types in a race that could get competitive early, I didn't want to just dismiss #9 Farragut, even if he is starting to run out of chances. David’s Plays (Race 11): Win: 7 Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2, 4, 9, 10 Trifecta: 7 with 4, 9 with 1, 2, 4, 9, 10 Like what you see? Click here to learn about our brand new product.