Santa Anita: Track profile prompts dilemma for bettors

ARCADIA, Calif. – A curious profile has recently emerged in six-furlong races at Santa Anita. In a dirt sprint, speed should be good, right?

Not always. Only one of the last 33 races at six furlongs, from Jan. 1 through Feb. 2, was won by a horse that led at every call. The unusual profile bears mention Thursday at Santa Anita, where pace will make the race in first-level six-furlong allowance races for fillies and mares. Cougarontheprowl is the likely front-runner in race 4; Mark of a Gem could set the pace in race 7, for statebreds.

Cougarontheprowl won her career debut Jan. 5 by pushing a quick pace. None of her race-4 rivals have gotten close recently to the 44.26-second half-mile that she pressed. Mark of a Gem is no kamikaze speedster, but she is quicker than her race-7 rivals.

The handicapping dilemma is how much to downgrade those front-runners, given the recent 1-for-33 record by pacesetters. That is, unless the statistic is an aberration.

Though only one recent winner (Peacenik, Jan. 11) led at every call, 19 of 33 were won by a horse within 1 1/2 lengths of the lead after the opening quarter-mile. The bottom line – the Santa Anita main track has been relatively bias-free most of the winter. And yes, closers win at six furlongs – five of the last eight winners rallied from more than four lengths behind. Perhaps the best move is to find the best horse, without regard to surface peculiarities.

Mike Puype trains Cougarontheprowl, sired by Unbridled’s Song and produced by the precocious Richwoman. As a 2006 juvenile, Richwoman won her first three, including the Cinderella Stakes at Hollywood Park and Grade 3 Debutante at Churchill Downs.

Cougarontheprowl was 4 when she finally made her debut, but she inherited her dam’s speed. Cougarontheprowl won her only start after pressing an opening quarter-mile in 21.76. Mike Smith rode her first out and rides again Thursday.

Rivals for Cougarontheprowl include Northern California shipper Kerrilyn; Small Moves, whose 81 last-out Beyer Speed Figure tops the field; lightly raced Fanny Brice; presser Our Pure Creation; and closer Peppy Bolly.

Race 7 is less clear. Mark of a Gem has not raced since May, but her comeback workouts for trainer Tim Yakteen suggest she is ready to fire. Smith rides her, also.

Others in the California-bred sprint are J and S Express, Georgie’s Sweetie, Always a Chance, Yawannagokid, and Sagebrush Queen.