Santa Anita: Pick six carryover bettors face unusual factors

ARCADIA, Calif. – Pick six bettors chasing the $115,862 carryover Thursday at Santa Anita will address factors that are not typically major considerations – the temporary rails on turf, and post position on dirt.

The turf rails are at the outermost 30-foot setting Thursday. This is not good for closers. Trainer Mike Puype recognizes Unusually Green (race 3) and Awesome Prospect (race 7) are up against it despite recent in-the-money finishes against rivals similar to Thursday’s.

“[Neither] horse has tactical speed,” Puype said. “You take the worst of it with the rail at 30 feet. It’s a concern for both horses. Their lack of speed hurts them. I like the horses; they are ‘use’ horses, but they’re not singles.”

Data supports the notion that closers are compromised with the rails up. In mile turf races with the rails at 15, 24, or 30 feet this meet, only 26 percent of winners (9 of 34) were positioned more than two lengths behind after the first half-mile. With rails at zero or eight feet, 47 percent of winners (15 of 32) rallied from more than two behind after the opening half.

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The profile is extreme when the rails are at 30 feet, like on Thursday. Only two of the 10 turf races run at one mile with the rails at the outermost setting this meet were won by a horse more than two lengths off the lead after the opening half. With the rails up, closers need to be lucky.

The pick six begins in race 3. Races 3, 5, and 7 are one-mile turf races. The dirt races in the pick six are sprints, including an optional claimer for California-breds that is race 6. Valdirone has worked super for his first start in a year, but drew poorly in post 1.

“He’s been working really well,” trainer Brian Koriner said. “Everybody that watched him work [at Los Alamitos] says, ‘What the hell is that?’ But when you draw the 1-hole in a field of 10, you have to worry about how fit you are.”

Statistically, the rail is not bad at six furlongs. The inside post has won at a 13 percent clip (11 for 83) this meet. But the dynamics do not complement a comebacker such as Valdirone, unraced since February 2013.

“You either show speed, or hope you can take dirt and finish,” Koriner said. “He’s a big horse, and you wonder how fit he really is. He only has one three-quarter [workout].”

The good news for Valdirone is he is quick enough to establish position inside.

Below is a race-by-race look at the pick six.

Race 3 is a mile turf race for California-bred maidens. The tactical speed of Do Some Magic makes him a potential single. Trained by Marty Jones, Do Some Magic finished second twice recently under similar circumstances, and will have the jump over Puype-trained closer Unusually Green. Puype also starts stretch-out sprinter Tricky Journey, whose speed could benefit his late-running stablemate.

“The pace will be legit,” Puype said.

Race 4 is a 5 1/2-furlong sprint for $20,000 maiden claimers in which Puype-trained No Ez Money is another potential single. That is rarely the case with a 5-year-old maidens making the second start of his career.

No Ez Money’s debut was a nightmare. He broke last from the rail, unleashed an early move, steadied on the backstretch, re-rallied, sliced through traffic while hard-held, loomed at the quarter pole, and then tired to sixth.

With a clean start Thursday, No Ez Money could be gone.

“He’s a high-strung horse; he’s a nervous horse,” Puype said. “He has speed.”

Race 5 is a mile turf race for $25,000 claiming fillies and mares, non-winners of two. Stretch-out dropper Lord Kitra and front-runner Amanda have running styles suited to the rails-up configuration.

Race 6 is the six-furlong California-bred optional $20,000 claimer in which Koriner-trained Valdirone returns. But the horse to beat is veteran Master Chef, an 11-for-39 pro who has won at the first California-bred condition three times. He is the only runner entered for the $20,000 optional tag. Judge Carr and Awesome Indy also fit.

Race 7 is a mile turf optional claimer for California-breds. Front-runner Zackos My Man could steal it. The come-from-behind contenders include Awesome Prospect, Christopher Street, and Awesome Return. Lucky Views also has a look up front.

Deraptor makes his first start on turf, and first for Puype. “He is little bit of a wildcard,” Puype said. “He is another one that does not have speed. The bias does not suit him.”

Race 8 is a six-furlong sprint for $30,000 maiden-claiming 3-year-old fillies. Wild Optimism ships from Sunland Park and makes her first start for Pete Miller. Koriner-trained Papa’s Dancing drops, adds blinkers, and switches to aggressive rider Edwin Maldonado. Other contenders are Moscato Girl and Euroclydon.