Santa Anita handicapping roundup: Week of Oct. 19

Tap It Rich looks special

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile has never been won by a second-time starter. That could change if impressive 2-year-old maiden winner Tap It Rich reproduces his smashing debut in the fourth race on Oct. 12.

Bob Baffert trains Tap It Rich, a $510,000 yearling by Tapit originally scheduled to make his debut Sept. 28 in a maiden sprint. Due to a paperwork delay, he ended up stuck on the also-eligible list and did not draw into the field. Maybe it was a blessing in disguise.

The postponed debut allowed Baffert to work him twice more before entering him in a two-turn maiden race at one mile. The challenge for Tap It Rich was winning a route, first time out. Two strides out of the gate, it seemed he was in big trouble.

Tap It Rich hopped and broke slowly. He was last of 10. The trip got worse from there. Tap It Rich and jockey Mike Smith drifted four wide into the first turn. First-time starters do not win route races after breaking slowly and racing wide.

Tap It Rich made an extended run on the backstretch, stayed wide into and through the far turn, took aim at the leaders and hit the front at the quarter pole. By then, any normal horse would have lost his punch.

Tap It Rich is not a normal horse. He opened up through the lane and won in full stride. It was a breathtaking debut by the best 2-year-old in California. His 1:36.78 clocking earned an 89 Beyer Speed Figure.

Turf-route changes

The turf course at Santa Anita was dominated by closers the first 2 1/2 weeks of the meet. But the profile is changing. It started Oct. 13 in race 8, when even-money favorite Journey On led gate to wire at a mile, the first horse from 22 turf routes to lead at every call. Was it an aberration? Apparently, it was not.

One day later in race 5, Keldy did something similar in a mile turf race. She pressed the pace for a quarter-mile, made the lead after a quick 45.95-second half-mile, opened up into the lane, and held. Two races later, Twin Six pressed his way to victory, positioned no farther back than a half-length. That made it three consecutive front-running/pace-pressing winners in mile turf races to end the week.

Turf-sprint speed

Meanwhile, front-runners in turf sprints were 0 for 14 the first three weeks. But the profile might be less severe than the data suggest.

Noise of the Crowd (Oct. 4) and Toowindytohaulrox (Oct. 6) won turf sprints while positioned within a half-length of the lead. Noise of the Crowd, scheduled to run again Oct. 18, actually led after a quarter-mile, pressed after a half-mile, then kicked away late.

One could argue speed is a liability, but the fact is most turf sprints are won by horses with running styles complemented by the pace.

All signs go

The turf-sprint profile – speed or late speed – is a factor in both weekend turf-sprint stakes. The feature on Saturday is the $100,000 California Flag Handicap for older horses; the feature Sunday is the $70,000 Uniformity for 3-year-olds.

Ain’t No Other is the class of the California Flag. A multiple stakes winner and 9 for 29 overall, his runner-up finish Sept. 4 at Del Mar was flattered when the horse that beat him by a neck, Private Zone, returned to win the Grade 1 Vosburgh at Belmont.

However, the most likely winner of the California Flag is an improving 3-year-old that has gotten better since switching to turf. Strong Wind was a stakes winner last year as a 2-year-old and moved to a new trainer this year and to a different surface.

At Del Mar, he won a turf-sprint allowance and was a close third in a stakes. He returns from a break of nearly two months, with sharp works and a pressing style. Due to a lack of pace in the California Flag, Strong Wind will be forcing slow splits and is worthy of a single in the late pick four.