Santa Anita handicapping roundup: Week of Oct. 12

California distaff trends

It is fun to thumb through stakes histories and stumble onto an old favorite such as the turf sprint for fillies and mares previously known as the California Cup Distaff Handicap. The word “Cup” is gone, but the appealing conditions remain – California-bred fillies and mares sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over the unique Santa Anita downhill turf course.

Among the good ones who recently won the California Distaff are 2012 winner Tiz Flirtatious, now the circuit’s top grass female and a contender for the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. In 2011, the race was won by Unzip Me. She won 6 of 10 on the hill, 14 of 25 overall.

The California Distaff will be run again Saturday, and handicappers will naturally be attracted to starters with established form over the downhill course. The horse-for-course angle may provide confidence, but relative to the California Distaff, it is hardly a prerequisite.

Eight of 14 California Distaffs since 2000 were won by a horse racing on the hill for the first time, including four of the past five. The winners of both divisions of the race last year were making their first start on the hill. Favorites won 6 of 14, pacesetters 2 of 14, and all 14 winners had a recent start. No layoff winners.

The no-layoff angle might be reason to lessen enthusiasm for Cal Distaff nominee Bella Viaggia, a winner of the race in 2012 and one-two finisher in all seven of her starts. If she runs, Bella Viaggia will try to become the first horse this millennium to win the stakes returning from a layoff. Her most recent start was Aug. 18 at Del Mar.

Class, closers best on turf

All three Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprints at Santa Anita have been won by horses with a previous win over the course – Desert Code ($75) in 2008, California Flag ($8.80) in 2009, and Mizdirection ($15.80) in 2012.

This meet, six of the first nine turf-sprint winners were winning on the hill for the first time. None of the winners led gate to wire. In fact, the Santa Anita turf did not produce a single front-running winner at any distance the first two weeks of racing this meet (23 grass races).

For traditionalists, this is a good thing. Turf handicapping is based on class and finishing kick. That has continued this fall at Santa Anita.

Turf sprints with the rails down were won five of six times by horses rallying from off the pace; three turf sprints with the rails at 24 feet were won by pressers. Favorites in turf sprints were 1 for 9 through Oct. 6.

One-mile turf races have been dominated this fall by off-the-pace runners. Through Oct. 6, every winner was more than 2 1/2 lengths behind the leader at the first pace call (opening half-mile). Favorites were 3 for 11.

Only three turf races have been run at longer than a mile, all won by closers. My Friend Jimmy ($27.60) rallied to win a starter allowance; Tiz Flirtatious ($5.40 second choice) won the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive; Indy Point ($6 favorite) won the Grade 1 John Henry Turf Championship.

The bottom line two weeks into the meet – late speed wins on the fast Santa Anita turf.

Racetrackers

◗ Trainer E.G. “Bill” Burnison and assistant Tirso Limon keep winning at overlay prices. Luca paid $15.40 for winning a starter allowance Oct. 5, the fourth win from 16 starts this year for Burnison, his highest total since 2004. Luca was bred by Chantal Burnison, his daughter.

◗ Trainer Mike Mitchell has always been effective first off the claim – 30 percent (50 for 164) the past five years. But his first-off-claim Lil Bit O’Fun somehow slipped through the cracks Oct. 5. The sprint-built gelding shortened in distance, removed blinkers, and made his first start for Mitchell in a $40,000 claiming turf sprint. He was up late at $33.60.

◗ It was not a good week for odds-on favorites trained by Bob Baffert, whose odds-on win rate over five years is a solid 57 percent (175 for 303). But all four odds-on runners he started Oct. 3-6 disappointed. They were third-place finishers My Lucky Rose (Oct. 3, SA) and Fiftyshadesofhay (Oct. 5, IND); Key Vista (Oct. 5, SA) and Declassify (Oct. 6, SA) finished off the board.