Santa Anita handicapping roundup: Week of March 29

Long look at short distance

Twenty Percent scored a sharp debut victory March 22, drawing off by more than three lengths and earning a respectable 73 Beyer Speed Figure. It was a good win by the 3-year-old Dixie Union colt, trained by Doug O’Neill. The knock is that the win came at an abbreviated distance – 5 1/2 furlongs.

Purists often consider races under six furlongs (for 3-year-olds and up) potentially phony. Notwithstanding figures or margin, disbelievers, including this handicapper, have not trusted wins at 5 1/2 or shorter. The distance is too short for reliable projections.

As it turns out, that skeptical logic needs revision. Over the past three winters at Santa Anita, 12 maiden special weight winners at 5 1/2 furlongs ran back (no layoff) in longer sprints. Though none won (eight ran in allowance races, four in stakes), six finished in the money. The notion that their maiden wins were dubious is simply wrong.

Six of the 12 maiden winners improved their Beyers from 6 to 15 points, two dropped only a single point, and two others regressed 5 points. Considering that all 12 maiden winners were moving up in class, a 50 percent improvement rate seems awfully good.

Twenty Percent might be all right. It is too early to tell. He was a late supplement to the Triple Crown series. But he, along with recent short-distance maiden winners Satirical and Copperopolis, cannot be discounted merely because they won their maiden at 5 1/2.

Santa Anita maiden winners at 5 1/2 included Home Sweet Aspen (2011) and Paynter (2012). Both later won Grade 1 races.

Legitimate or bias-aided?

The speed-friendly profile has reached an extreme at 1 1/16 miles. From Feb. 14 through March 23, no fewer than 15 of the 22 dirt races at the distance were won by the early pacesetter.

The bias was particularly severe March 8, when California Chrome scorched the track en route to a blowout. In the Grade 2 San Felipe, his first graded route, he raced the opening half in 45.55 (the second-fastest of the meet) and six furlongs in 1:09.45 (the fastest of the meet). He demolished his rivals by more than seven lengths.

California Chrome is expected to be favored April 5 in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. If his San Felipe romp is accepted at face value, he should win the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby at a short price. The counter argument is that a speed bias made California Chrome look better than he is.

Candy Boy could be the second betting choice in the Santa Anita Derby. Comparisons between him and California Chrome are possible through a common rival – Midnight Hawk. California Chrome defeated Midnight Hawk by more than seven; Candy Boy defeated Midnight Hawk by “only” two.

Based on his powerful gallop-out in the 1 1/16-mile Robert B. Lewis, Candy Boy should relish the added ground of the Santa Anita Derby. The bottom line: California Chrome and Candy Boy might be closer in ability than the 11-point Beyer difference (107-96).

Oaks pace a key

The track profile benefits Fashion Plate in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks on April 5, even if her come-home in the Grade 1 Las Virgenes was not pretty. Stretching to a route and facing winners for the first time, Fashion Plate set the pace and won the one-mile race despite a 26.31-second final quarter. Her final time was 1:37.22; she earned an 83 Beyer.

The effort does not suggest that Fashion Plate wants to run farther. But when she attempts an additional half-furlong in the 1 1/16-mile Santa Anita Oaks, the dilemma is whether to consider Fashion Plate vulnerable at the longer distance or recognize a potential pace advantage at a distance that rewards speed. Her possible Oaks rivals include a filly who would complicate the pace scenario. Honey Ride won a one-mile maiden race March 2 by sitting second behind a fast pace and inching clear in 1:35.84, good for an 85 Beyer.

If the Oaks field includes both speeds – Fashion Plate and Honey Ride – one possible outcome is a total pace collapse. That is precisely what occurred in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Deep closer Ria Antonia missed by a nose and won via disqualification. In the Santa Anita Oaks, Ria Antonia will make her first start since being transferred to trainer Bob Baffert.