Santa Anita handicapping roundup: Week of March 15

Flattered by conditions

When good horses race under favorable conditions, they occasionally crush. It happened March 8 at Santa Anita, where front-runners Game On Dude and California Chrome parlayed a speed-friendly, pro-inside surface into highly rated stakes wins.

The handicapping challenge moving forward is gauging the extent that the surface contributed to the victories. As the trainers of both horses acknowledged, conditions were undeniably favorable.

Art Sherman trains California Chrome, whose 7 1/4-length win in the Grade 2 San Felipe was the fastest 1 1/16 miles of the meet (1:40.59) and earned a 107 Beyer Speed Figure. “We all know Santa Anita’s a speed-biased type of track,” Sherman said afterward.

Bob Baffert trains Game On Dude, whose 1 1/4-length win in 1:58.17 for 1 1/4 miles was the fastest in Santa Anita Handicap history and earned a 116 Beyer.

“When it gets warm like this, the track gets pretty fast,” Baffert said. “It’s pretty speed-biased. The horse that won it, he’s a good horse.”

Yes, Game On Dude and California Chrome are good horses. The dilemma for bettors is to decide if they are good enough to win under less-favorable conditions. When they run next, both horses could be undervalued.

Game On Dude will be pointed to the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic on April 19. He won that $1.5 million race a year ago at 3-10 odds. If bettors accept his recent Big Cap victory at face value, Game On Dude might be an underlay again at Charles Town.

California Chrome starts next in either the Santa Anita Derby on April 5 or the Kentucky Derby on May 3. He could be untouchable at Santa Anita. But if his next start is in the speed-jammed Kentucky Derby, and if bettors take his San Felipe romp at face value, California Chrome also might be an underlay.

Speed still an asset

As the winter meet has unfolded, the main track at Santa Anita has remained speed-conducive in dirt routes. This is particularly true in graded stakes – seven of the 11 dirt-route graded stakes were won by the pacesetter:

Jan. 11, G3 Sham Stakes, Midnight Hawk ($2.80 favorite)
Jan. 11, G2 San Pasqual Stakes, Blueskiesnrainbows ($6.20 favorite)
Feb. 1, G1 Las Virgenes, Fashion Plate ($11.40)
Feb. 15, G2 Santa Maria, Iotapa ($6.40)
March 1, G3 Santa Ysabel, Awesome Baby ($6.20)
March 8, G2 San Felipe, California Chrome ($4.80 favorite)
March 8, G1 Santa Anita Handicap, Game On Dude ($9.60)

Those 11 graded stakes had 73 total starters (average field size of 6.63). In races with smaller fields, it is logical to expect a higher rate of front-running winners. Combining all class levels, the front end remains the place to be:

At one mile, 14 of the 44 races (31.8 percent) were won by the pacesetter. At 1 1/16 miles, 17 of 41 races (41.4 percent) were won by the pacesetter.

Santa Margarita preview

Until two-time champion Beholder returns, the main-track fillies and mares in California appear to be a cut below. That includes the handful of Grade 2 winners who will contest the Grade 1 Santa Margarita Stakes on Saturday.

Eight entered the Santa Margarita, which is likely to unfold at a modest tempo. That would be just fine for Iotapa, who wired the Grade 2 Santa Maria on Feb. 15.

Iotapa will face only one obvious pace foe Saturday, Miss Serendipity. But Miss Serendipity, an improving Argentine Group 1 winner, is not a confirmed starter. She also is nominated to a turf stakes Sunday. Either way, neither Iotapa nor Miss Serendipity is particularly fast. The fractions in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Margarita are likely to be soft. All of this makes Iotapa the tepid selection on a track where speed is king.