Santa Anita handicapping roundup: Week of March 1

Division ripe for the taking

News from Fair Grounds is that Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner (via disqualification) Ria Antonia will ship for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks on April 5. There are at least two good reasons to ship west – to avoid the nation’s top filly, Untapable, at Fair Grounds, and to face an undistinguished group at Santa Anita.

The locally based Streaming won the Hollywood Starlet, disappointed in the Las Virgenes, then chipped a bone and is sidelined. Taste Like Candy finished second in the Starlet, second in the Santa Ynez, then misfired in the Las Virgenes. Turf could be in her future.

Fashion Plate wired the Las Virgenes despite a final half-mile in a laborious 50.96 seconds. She’s a Tiger only recently resumed training. Cast in Silver, the impressive Golden Gate Fields debut winner who is a sibling to Palace Malice, has started only once. The local filly division is ripe for a new shooter such as Ria Antonia or another filly who is already here.

Sweet Bliss could break out Saturday in the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel – or, hopefully, at least break well. Off slowly in both of her starts, she overcame her poor takeoff in her second start to win a maiden race more impressively than the 71 Beyer Speed Figure indicates.

After spotting her rivals several lengths while slow from the gate, Sweet Bliss inched into contention into the far turn, lost ground while wide, raced greenly in the lane, and wore down the slow-pace front-runner. Better than it looked? You bet.

Sired by Street Cry and produced by a sibling to Grade 1 winners Sweet Catomine and Life Is Sweet, the lightly raced Sweet Bliss is trained by John Shirreffs. She must catch potential loose-on-the-lead Awesome Baby in the Santa Ysabel, but with a clean takeoff, Sweet Bliss could make noise in an otherwise quiet division.

San Felipe looking light

A small field is expected for the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes on March 8, led by California Chrome and Kristo. Other candidates include 15-length allowance winner Bayern and miler Midnight Hawk.

Kristo might be better than his improving form already suggests. He won a maiden route setting the pace and again employed front-running tactics to finish second in the Grade 3 Sham. In both routes, the slow pace and/or small field dictated the strategy. There is a feeling that Kristo might prefer rallying from behind rather than setting the pace.

If a normal pace unfolds in the San Felipe, Kristo can rally for the win. But he faces two improving colts, California Chrome and Bayern. The win by California Chrome in the California Cup Derby was validated when runner-up Tamarando returned to win the El Camino Real Derby and fifth-place Better Bet upset a turf allowance.

Big Cap early line
Mucho Macho Man has arrived in California to prepare for the Santa Anita Handicap on March 8. Assuming the rain lets up, Mucho Macho Man will be tough. The wagering dilemma is price – how low will Mucho Macho Man’s odds be?

Big Cap weight assignments are scheduled for release Saturday. Meanwhile, an early look at the probable field, with odds, is listed below. As of Thursday, eight starters were likely. The preliminary odds line totals 121 percentage points.

Horse, odds
Mucho Macho Man 8-5
Will Take Charge 5-2
Game On Dude 7-2
Appealing Tale 8-1
Blingo 10-1
Imperative 12-1
American Blend 20-1
Majestic Harbor 30-1

Predictable
Race 7 on Saturday is the lowest (non-maiden) class level in Southern California – $12,500 claiming fillies and mares, nonwinners of two. Tough to handicap, right? Not for the public this winter. Five races have been run at the level; all five were won by the favorite.