Santa Anita handicapping roundup: Week of Jan. 4

Learning from losses

No Jet Lag seems to be turning into a run-off. He finished seventh as the 7-5 favorite in the Grade 2 Sir Beaufort Stakes on Dec. 26. He ran off early, pressed a blazing pace, and backed up. It was not the first time he produced too much speed.

A Grade 2 winner, No Jet Lag did the same thing Oct. 26 in his final work for the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He broke off like a rocket, shaded 34 seconds for the first three furlongs, and faded home in 58.77. Trainer Simon Callaghan recognizes that he must slow down.

“He needs to be restrained [leaving the gate],” Callaghan said. “When you let him break and then take back, it’s too late. You can’t win doing what he did. You’re watching a race you know you cannot win.”

Callaghan will consider shortening No Jet Lag to a turf sprint. Run-off types often run well when shortened to a sprint.

◗ Sweet Lulu finished second as the 4-5 favorite Dec. 26 in the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes, but it might have been the best race of her career.

Breaking from the rail going seven furlongs, she was hounded by longshot Journey On. After putting away that rival, Sweet Lulu battled back but was no match for 1 1/4-length winner Heir Kitty. Sweet Lulu finished 2 1/2 lengths clear of third. Those who argue that Sweet Lulu ran better than the winner would get no argument from this corner. The rematch might arrive Jan. 25 in the Grade 2 Santa Monica Stakes.

◗ Is the 4-year-old Flashback overrated? Or was his fourth-place finish as the 1.90-1 favorite in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes merely a prep race for the Grade 2 Strub Stakes around two turns Jan. 18?

Flashback rallied from ninth to fourth, beaten four lengths by stablemate Shakin It Up. Before the seven-furlong Malibu, trainer Bob Baffert warned that the main objective for Flashback would be two turns in the Strub. Stay tuned.

Ontology coming along

Ontology may have turned the corner in the eighth start of his career. His maiden win Dec. 28 at a mile on turf was powerful, his 1:35.50 final time was only 0.25 seconds slower than the Eddie Logan Stakes an hour earlier, and trainer Callaghan and owner J. Paul Reddam might give the colt one more chance on the main track.

“The one time we ran him on the main track [in the Grade 1 FrontRunner on Sept. 28], he had blinkers on. We tried to be aggressive from the start, he got rank, and understandably just kind of faded,” Callaghan said.

The son of Square Eddie is a better horse now, with blinkers off. His maiden win, by 2 3/4 lengths, was visually powerful, and he might get another shot on dirt.

“He always works well on this surface, and it might not be a bad idea to try him once more,” Callaghan said. “He’s matured a bit since [the fall], we know him a bit better, and it makes sense to try him once more on the main track with blinkers off.”

Gotta be able to breathe

Holy Lute finished last in the Malibu, his second consecutive subpar performance. This time, trainer Jim Cassidy knows the reason why.

“He never coughed, never had a temperature, wanted to smack everybody, and never gave me any indication something was wrong.” Cassidy said. But in the Malibu, he threw his head up in the air and backed up. Initially, Cassidy figured he had bled.

“The [vet] said it’s nothing, he’s clean, there is nothing there, there is no bleeding. I said, ‘Well, maybe he’s got an allergy. Let’s X-ray,’ ” Cassidy said. It turns out that his lungs were full of crud.

“One lung is completely cloudy; the other lung has black [stuff] in it,” he said.

Holy Lute will return in February or March, and if his lungs recover, he can deliver on the promise he showed in the summer and fall, when he won the El Cajon at Del Mar and finished third in the Indiana Derby.

“It’s going to take a while; we’re talking six weeks,” Cassidy said.