Santa Anita handicapping roundup: Week of Jan. 25

No such thing as a sure thing

Every bettor has been guilty of overestimating the chances of a horse. “I love so-and-so,” goes the refrain. During the week of Jan. 16-20, a handful of low-odds disappointments served to remind horseplayers that short prices sometimes get beaten even when they are in the right spots.

Day of Fury, Bury Pacer, and Yana were short prices in the right spots. Each “figured” for different reasons. But there is no such thing as a sure thing.
Day of Fury was well touted into his career debut Jan. 17. Bob Baffert trains the Curlin 3-year-old, whose works stamped him as special. The 3-2 favorite, he only needed to reproduce his morning work in the afternoon race. It would be a formality, right?

However, Day of Fury found two turns against eight other runners much tougher than a choreographed morning workout. He was green as grass, tossed his head around, lugged out, acted like a fool, and finished sixth. When he gets his head screwed on straight, he might be a good 3-year-old.

Bury Pacer was 6-5 in his U.S. debut Jan. 20, a maiden route on turf. Decent works, modest rivals. Bury Pacer broke slowly, as European imports do. He was blocked into the lane, stayed in traffic, put in a half-hearted rally, and ran third by a length. A generous assessment would be to call it inconclusive. Having overestimated him once already, this handicapper probably will take a negative stand when he runs next.

Yana was next. Even-money in a Jan. 20 sprint for California-bred maiden fillies, all she had to do was to pop out of the gate, make the lead, and be gone. Instead, the comebacking front-runner leapt in the air and broke dead last. She finished seventh. Make her the one to beat next time against maiden fillies, with concern about the start.

Those three horses were “supposed to win.” They did not. Favorites are not slam dunks. They never are.

Big week for big chalk

Meanwhile, it was a good week for odds-on favorites – 4 of 5 won. The loser was Pimpernel, fifth as a maiden-race favorite Jan. 18. An Elusive Quality colt from the superior female sprinter Xtra Heat, Pimpernel added Lasix but lost as the chalk for the third straight race.

Four others hammered by bettors all delivered.

Presenceofagenius ($3.40), a second-time starter stretching to two turns on turf, waited behind traffic into the lane Jan. 16, exploded in the final eighth, and was up late. It was a good win for the 4-year-old in a soft field of older maidens. Allowance races will be tougher.

Ambitious Brew ($3.60) was fully extended in winning a first-level allowance on the hillside course. Favorites won nine of the first 19 turf sprints at this meet. The all-out victory by Ambitious Brew suggests he will need to step up his game to win an N2X.

Indianapolis ($3.20) ran to his workouts and improved on his debut, winning the six-furlong San Pedro Stakes for 3-year-olds on Jan. 20 by more than four lengths after unleashing an impressive burst of speed at the top of the lane. He earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure that could make him the favorite in the Grade 2, seven-furlong San Vicente on Feb. 16.

Indianapolis faced only three rivals in the San Pedro, but the win was fast (1:08.80) and visually impressive. He left his rivals in the dust turning for home. Very sharp. After one more sprint, Indianapolis will go long down the Derby trail.

San Onofre was 3-5 in a first-level allowance Jan. 20. He tucked behind the speed, cruised to the lead into the lane, and won easily by 2 1/2 lengths. He earned another 99 Beyer. Got Even, the pacesetter preferred by this handicapper, tired to third.

Some favorites ran to expectations, which has been the norm at this meet. Favorites won 64 of the first 155 races through Monday, a 41 percent strike rate.

Last week, favorites won 13 of 43 (30 percent).

Jockey photos

It is no surprise that leading jockey Rafael Bejarano also leads in photo-finish victories. In races decided by a neck, head or nose, his five wins compare to three losses (plus a dead-heat win via disqualification). Joe Talamo has one win and four seconds in photo finishes (plus a dead-heat win via disqualification).

Irving Orozco, the promising young apprentice with 11 wins from 70 mounts and a flat-bet profit ($2.63 per $2 win bet) at the meet, finally lost a photo finish. He was collared Jan. 20 after winning three previous photos. Orozco delivered a couple of nice turf rides recently. Maybe he was on the best horse, but he put Texas Ryano and Would You in position to win. Both did, at $51.80 and $43.60. Orozco is riding well.