Santa Anita handicapping roundup: Week of Jan. 18

HEAR THE GHOST SOLID STRUB CHALK

The San Fernando Stakes will be run Saturday with a new name. The January race for 4-year-olds has been renamed the Strub Stakes; the February race for 4-year-olds once known as the Strub has been eliminated from the schedule. Historical significance aside, Hear the Ghost is a likely Strub favorite Saturday in his third start back from a layoff.

Knocked off the Derby path last spring, Hear the Ghost ran super in both his recent starts, both vs. older. He finished second in an allowance won by subsequent stakes winner Cyclometer, and stretched out to finish second in the two-turn Native Diver behind next-out San Pasqual winner Blueskiesnrainbows.

Hear the Ghost did not have a good trip in the Native Diver. Four wide on the first turn, buried in traffic through the far turn, he finished well and missed by only a half-length. He drops into an age-restricted stakes for his third start back, and is the horse to beat.

BUT WATCH OUT FOR THE SPEED

Speed has been effective at the Strub distance of 1 1/16 miles. Through Jan. 12, nine of the 10 races at the distance were won by a horse within two lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile (7 of 10 winners within one length).

The Strub offers a chance for an upset by the only true front-runner. That is Heir of Storm, blazing allowance sprint winner two back and a better-than-looked seventh last out in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes at seven furlongs. He went after the pacesetters into the lane, and then lost his punch at the furlong pole.

Heir of Storm stretches out Saturday to two turns, and if he clears the field he could steal it. None of his rivals are as quick. Even though Hear the Ghost is a “most likely” winner, Heir of Storm would be tempting at 8-1 or higher.

TRAINER + JOCKEY

Strub entrant Hear the Ghost is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and will be ridden by Corey Nakatani. Hollendorfer also entered Malibu third-place finisher Zeewat, with jockey Rafael Bejarano. Although Zeewat went 2 for 3 in Golden Gate route races one year ago, a line of thinking is that he could be best as a closing sprinter.

However, to take a stand against Zeewat means taking a stand against the circuit’s most productive trainer-jockey combination. Hollendorfer and Bejarano were 8 for 19 the first three weeks of the meet.

Bejarano led the standings 20-14 over Mike Smith, though Bejarano apparently no longer rides for the co-leading trainer, Bob Baffert. Baffert was tied with Hollendorfer at 11 wins at the end of last week. The last time Bejarano rode for Baffert was Dec. 28; the last time he won for Baffert was Oct. 14.

SHAM REVIEW

The widely chronicled Jan. 11 victory by odds-on Midnight Hawk in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes will not be glorified here. Too many questions went unanswered when the colt won his two-turn debut in a shallow race that was basically a first-level allowance.

The Sham included just four starters. Runner-up Kristo was starting for the first time since a maiden win more than two months earlier. Two others were outsiders switching to dirt following maiden wins on turf.

Midnight Hawk benefitted from an in-the-clear trip racing outside. The pace was genuine (46.33 and 1:10.50), but not severe. As for the final quarter, it was a laborious 25.98 seconds. For perspective – eight of the 13 mile dirt races this meet were won by horses that ran a faster final quarter than Midnight Hawk, including six maiden winners.

Midnight Hawk is the ninth named foal out of the mare Miss Wineshine, a sprint filly who did not race beyond seven furlongs.

Midnight Hawk might someday turn out to be the real deal. But it will require more than an ordinary victory in a four-horse “allowance race” to prove it.