Santa Anita handicapping roundup and horses to watch for Oct. 5

Sandy surface a factor early in meet

Track surface is always a handicapping challenge when circuits move from track to track. Autumn at Santa Anita is no different.
Trainer Bob Baffert said the track is “deep and it’s a little bit loose, still a lot of sand.”

Track announcer Trevor Denman referred to the sandy surface when he called the Rodeo Drive, a turf race that crosses the main track before moving onto the turf oval. Referring to the dirt crossing, Denman said that Indy Point “didn’t cross the sand all that well . . . ”

It is true. Santa Anita dirt is sand-based dirt. Horses and jockeys return plastered with sand, a situation that can compromise late-runners. However, the first three days of the meet did not include an extreme bias, though most sprints were won by horses on or near the lead at the quarter pole.

As for routes, both pacesetting winners were favored – odds-on Tiz the Truth on Sept. 27, and Beholder on Sept. 28. Beholder benefitted from an incredibly slow pace. Her opening half-mile in 47.36 seconds was the slowest of five races at 1 1/16 miles.

It is worth noting that the outside sprint posts were highly productive opening week. Sprint posts 1-3 won just 1 of 13; horses breaking from one of three outside posts won 7 of 13.

The turf course is playing like a true turf course, which is normal for Santa Anita. That means the emphasis is on class and late speed.
All 10 turf races (three sprints, seven routes) were won from off the pace.

Sprint preview

The six-furlong Santa Anita Sprint Championship, formerly the Ancient Title, is the top feature Oct. 5. The race has produced three Breeders’ Cup Sprint winners since 2000 – Kona Gold (2000) and Amazombie (2011) won the Ancient Title prior to the BC Sprint; Thor’s Echo (2006) finished second prior to his BC Sprint win.

Though a fast recent race is not required to win the Santa Anita Sprint, every winner since 2000 previously had earned a triple-digit Beyer Figure. Based solely on that requirement, the 3-year-old speedster Distinctiv Passion would be an exception to the rule if he wins. His career-high Beyer is 95. Points Offthebench qualifies, barely. He earned 100, twice.

Four of the last six winners entered after earning a Beyer short of 100 in their more recent starts. But all previously “ran fast.” Coil (2012) entered following a 99 Beyer; he previously earned a 106. Smiling Tiger (2010) entered following a 96; he previously earned a 103. Gayego (2009) entered following a 99; he previously earned a 103. Idiot Proof (2007) entered following a 73; he previously earned a 113.

Breeders’ Cup-bound following a defeat

While winners get attention, several losers in opening-weekend stakes ran well enough to be considered legitimate contenders next out in the Breeders’ Cup.

Caracortado (Turf Sprint) was rusty for the Eddie D Stakes on Sept. 27, his first start in nearly 21 months. But he loomed a bold threat inside the eighth pole before he lost his punch late and finished fourth by less than a length.

Fascinating (Juvenile Fillies) was void of pace Sept. 28 in the Chandelier Stakes, racing over a track historically kind to speed. She closed more than six lengths the final five-sixteenths, finishing third by less than a length. Yes, she is still a maiden.

Tamarando (Juvenile) broke last Sept. 28 in the FrontRunner, yet rallied strongly late. “He moved right before they opened the gate,” jockey Julien Leparoux said. “He put his head to the side, and we tried, but we missed the break.

Dead last after the first half-mile, Tamarando finished well for third, losing by 4 1/4 lengths.

Authenticity (Distaff) was playing catch-up Sept. 28 in the Zenyatta Stakes, racing inside and behind horses while Beholder set easy fractions and wired the field. Authenticity finished second by 1 1/4 lengths in an ideal tune-up.

Revised opinions

Tiz Flirtatious won her first Grade 1 in the Rodeo Drive on Sept. 28, after which breeder Pam Ziebarth re-ranked the top fillies she owned.

She told Santa Anita publicity, “Earlier in her career someone asked me, ‘Is this the nicest filly you’ve had’ and I said Healthy Addiction would probably take that ticket, but . . . I’d say [Tiz Flirtatious] is there now.”

Tiz Flirtatious has won 8 of 12 starts (three graded stakes) and $774,800; Healthy Addiction won 10 of 27 (four graded stakes) and $1,032,837.

Skeptics, including this writer, considered the one-two finishers from the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity vulnerable when they stretched to two turns for the FrontRunner on Sept. 28. The thought was Dance With Fate and Tamarando might be late-running sprinters. Wrong. Though neither won the 1 1/16-mile FrontRunner, their two-three finishes were solid. It turns out that Dance With Fate and Tamarando are good horses, and the Del Mar Futurity was a legitimate race.

Pick five’s popularity

The pick-five wager produced boxcar payoffs the first three days of the meet. The 50-cent bet paid $11,825.55 on Sept. 27; $342,373.75 (one ticket) on Sept. 28; and $40,622.20 on Sept. 29.

Among the appealing features of the pick five is a 14 percent takeout, which makes it the least expensive wager in California. Meanwhile, the pick six has lost much of its pizzazz, due partly to a takeout increase that went into effect in winter 2010-11. The cost of the pick six increased 14.5 percent, from 20.68 cents per dollar to 23.68 cents per dollar.

Total pick-five handle the first three days of the fall meet was $1,003,994. Total pick-six handle the first three days was only $654,573, despite a carryover into the Sept. 28 card and a $50,000 bonus distributed to pick-six winners Sept. 29.

Horses to watch

TAP IT RICH
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last race: N/A
Finish: N/A
Beyer: N/A
This unraced, well-regarded juvenile Tapit colt has been training like the goods, but did not draw in from also-eligible list (Sept. 28, race 4). He is “live” in next maiden sprint.

FOXY BOSS
Trainer: Jim Cassidy
Last race: Sept. 28, 8th
Finish: 11th by 7 1/4
Beyer: 66
Unraced in two months, this 3-year-old filly had a bad trip. Wide early, she uncorked a crazy wide move on far turn and then went flat. She looms a contender in N1X turf route.

NEW YEAR’S DAY
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last race: Aug. 31, 4th (DMR)
Finish: 1st by 1 3/4
Beyer: 77
This 2-year-old maiden winner got sick and did not enter the Grade 1 FrontRunner, won by a maiden (Bond Holder) that he already beat. By Street Cry, he might be a good one.

SPRING UP
Trainer: John Sadler
Last race: Sept. 29, 5th
Finish: 2nd by 1 1/2
Beyer: 87
This 3-year-old by Spring At Last improved on turf. Forwardly placed chasing a hot pace, he made the lead late and held second behind the favorite. He can win a N1X.

WILD DUDE
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Last race: Sept. 29, 9th
Finish: 2nd by 2 3/4
Beyer: 86
An eventful trip cost this colt any chance in a N1X sprint. Always in traffic, he steadied at the quarter pole and finished with run. He is a deserving favorite next time versus similar.