Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for October 5, 2013

Race 1

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Race 2

Race 3

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Race 4

Spot Play

The improving HE BE FIRE N ICE (#6, 4-1) has four wins and a second in five turf routes since moving to trainer John Sadler. Compromised by a slow pace last time out, he nonetheless rallied into second. This time, he gets pace to run at. -By Brad Free

Vulnerable Favorite

OBVIOUSLY (#5, 3-5) nearly got beat last time at Del Mar despite setting an easy pace. He won’t walk on the lead here with Endorsement throwing down honest splits. Tough to knock a favorite whose only turf-route loss in seven starts was a third in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, but his most recent race shows he is not infallible. -Brad Free

Race 5

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Race 6

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LIL BIT O' FUN (#2, 12-1) Legendary off-the-claim outfit drops blinkers & cuts back from long route to long sprint while running back for same tag. Busy work tab since being claimed. Should have decent pace at which to run. - Marcus Hersh

LIL BIT O’FUN (#2, 12-1) comes off an ugly race, yes, but he was asked to go 11fs that day (that’s too far), was facing some tough customers and racing with blinkers on for the first time. Not only did Mitchell see fit to plunk down $40K to claim him (he’s a super 20% off a claim) but he moves him down in class, shortens him up and removes the blinks – and this guy’s best work has come sans blinkers. Last couple not-so-pretty running lines should keep your price lofty on a horse who could impact the exotics. -Michael Hammersly

Race 7

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Race 8

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Race 9

Santa Anita Sprint Analysis

Distinctiv Passion can flat sizzle. Declassify has only been behind a horse once at a margin call in his first two starts. Trinniberg is last year’s sprint champion who has major-league speed. Roman Threat pressed a :21 flat first quarter here in May 2012, and Goldencents can, well….uh-oh.

This race brings together some of the quickest horses on the grounds, including Goldencents, who ran second in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby at DMR July 28 and second in the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien there Aug. 25. The one thing Goldencents has going for him is that while he’s a naturally fast horse he’s not a need-the-lead type, and that trait could prove critical to success here when the early splits figure to be fast and contested. After all, when Goldencent won the Grade 3 Sham and Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby here in the winter/spring he PRESSED the pace but was able to take over late. He wasn’t on the lead. His superb second in the Bing Crosby saw him sit fifth early before finishing well to be beaten just a head by today’s foe Points Offthebench. In the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien he pressed a hot early pace and maybe moved too soon in that 7-furlong race, surging into hot splits to take the lead leaving him just not quite strong enough in the final furlong to fend off winner Fed Biz.

The good news, though, is that race was at 7 furlongs; he cuts back a furlong here which has to help. Also, there was no need for such an early move, so that while rider Pat Valenzuela made that push to take early control it looked good but left Goldencents just short enough on fuel to cost him.

Well, today’s game is a furlong shorter and new rider Bejarano is likely a bit more patient than P. Val, meaning Goldencents can use his natural speed to sit close early while Distinctiv Passion and a few others go at it hot and heavy early. Then Bejarano can hit the gas as this guy has proven stamina (remember, those wins in the Sham and SA Derby were at 1 1/8 miles so he won’t be hailing a cab come furlong No. 6).

Also, you have to like that big bullet 6f move here Sept. 27 (1:11.40) as it shows he’s feeling good.

As far as exotics go, Distinctiv Passion may be the speed of the speed. So, if he’s quickest, maybe the other speed types chase and give way as they’re not used to chasing someone else. It may mean ‘Passion can actually be clear turning for home. Of course, Goldencents doesn’t figure to be too far away so he can still flourish but ‘Passion may well hold firm. Points Offthebench beat Goldencents in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby and is very similar to Goldencents in that he’s got ample tactical speed but isn’t a need-the-lead type. There’s no way to knock this guy as he has five wins and a second in his last six starts. He and Goldencents figure to be close to one another from the paddock all the way to where they get unsaddled. - Michael Hammersly

Spot Play

A better-than-looked debut by SAVINGS ACCOUNT (#12, 4-1) sets up the 2-year-old for a maiden win second out. She was shuffled early, finished with run, trained super since, and meets a modest field in this downhill turf sprint. -By Brad Free

Vulnerable Favorite

Three options from this wide draw for GOLDENCENTS (#8, 5-2): 1) Go up and duel on crazy-hot pace 2) take back a bit and get hung wide on turn 3) take back a lot and try to rally from behind horses, something he’s never done. I’ll go with none of the above, especially consider he just lost to ho-hum Fed Biz.-Marcus Hersh

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Race 10

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