Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for November 2, 2013
Race 1 |
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Race 2 |
Spot PlayFront-runner ANILLO (#5, 8-1) is the speed of this small field, racing in sharp form. He faces odds-on Flashback, who is stuck on the rail returning from a long layoff. -Brad Free
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Race 3 |
Let’s see, WINDING WAY, my selection for this hillside grass course sprint, in her only turf start Oct. 5 at Keeneland, pressed the early pace but then bid a steady retreat, eventually ending up seventh (of eight) beaten 22 lengths. So naturally you may ask, ‘Well, if she’s your pick off that, then what have you been smoking?’ Well, let me backtrack a bit. She’s my selection not because of that race but in spite of it, as there are numerous reasons to believe she can do much, much better. And the good news is that with such an ugly running line staring fans in the face that likely helps buoy your price, so if we are correct we’re going to get maximum value as opposed to if she came here off a strong first turf try. Back to square one. WINDING WAY made quite a splash when beginning her career in the spring of 2012, posting three straight big wins including the Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo at Del Mar. She then wan in the L.A. Woman on dirt here but as the 3-10 favorite was no factor, finishing last of four. Turns out she came exited that race with an ailment and wasn’t seen again until June of this year. But even when she resurfaced at Betfair at Hollywood Park she didn’t look the same – she was a so-so fifth in the Desert Stormer and then dueled and faded to fifth in the Grade 2 A Glam there. She perked up nicely at Del Mar, however, finishing second to top-class sprinter Reneesgotzip in the Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo, the race she’d won a year prior. That was enough to convince trainer Carla Gaines, a pretty bright lady, to try something new. Instead of coming back to this track for a dirt sprint stakes she opted to ship to Keeneland to give this gal not only her first turf try, but her first route. Not only were those hurdles, but it was the toughest race of her career, the Grade 1 First Lady. On top of all that, the heavens opened up that day, turning the course into a bog and the race itself was hard to see as the horses were hidden by the deluge. So, we shouldn’t be surprised that with all that against her, WINDING WAY did nothing. Actually, she showed some speed to press the pace, but then hit the brakes, finishing seventh beaten a city block by some of the best turf distaffers anywhere. It was a waste of a trip. Gaines brought her home but it’s most interesting that instead of trying dirt again here or waiting for the synthetic footing at Betfair at Hollywood Park she gives her another crack at turf. Note, too, it’s a sprint, surely her best game. Note also, that not only is leading rider and her frequent partner Rafael Bejarano aboard, but she comes here off two strong grass works. There’s no risk of a deluge or non-firm turf this time, and with those works saying she seems quite happy on this ground, she may be ready for a top try. Oh, she gets blinkers, too, which may keep her more focused. You’d hate to use her just on top, though, at big odds and see her run well to finish second so there are others you may want to try with her exacta-speaking. ULTRASONIC comes from Europe with a nice resume, including finishing third to the very classy Gifted Girl a few months ago. She’s worked nicely here, too. PURIM’S DANCER is the one to beat having won four of her five starts on this hillside course including a game tally over a few of these just a few weeks ago. A TIME TO LOVE and MINDS EYES were less than a length behind her that day, showing they belong in her league. UNUSUAL HOTTIE has been freshened since some strong spring/summer turf races and figures to be coming late. - Michael Hammersly
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Race 4 |
ARTEMIS AGROTERA was fortunate in her Frizette win. Sweet Reason lost ground by ducking in sharply after the start, and was beaten only 1 1/4 lengths. Still, Artemis Agrotera was good enough to capitalize, which speaks well of her. Most importantly, her natural but ratable speed should play well around two turns, and on the main track at Santa Anita; taken to repeat. SWEET REASON was obviously best in the Frizette, and impressed winning her first two starts, including the Spinaway. She might be more than a closing sprinter, but one-turn closers aren’t automatic going long. UNTAPABLE caught an opponent who just couldn’t stay the trip in the Pocahontas, but still showed substance successfully stretching out to 8 1/2 furlongs off a 2 1/2-month layoff. SHE’S A TIGER just failed in the Chandelier after trying to put the race away on the far turn; yet to run a bad one.- Mike Watchmaker Western-based fillies have historically had an edge when this race is at Santa Anita, but the locals seem unexceptional this year. UNTAPABLE handled an 11-week layoff to win the Pocahontas stretching out first time against winners, and got a schooling taking dirt inside before easing out wide to best a favorite coming off a blowout debut win; her dam, a Grade 2 turf router, produced Paddy O’Prado, a five-time graded stakes winner on turf, whose fastest races were the Kentucky Derby and BC Classic. ARTEMIS AGROTERA has won twice from inside posts, although she benefited from mud lark SWEET REASON’s early misfortunes in the Frizette, and must deal with mid-race pressure from She’s a Tiger. The latter opened up through a slow fourth quarter in the Chandelier, but couldn’t hold off SECRET COMPASS (tardy changing leads). Concave may take to dirt at a price.- Dave Litfin
Spot PlayARTEMIS AGROTERA (#1, 3-1): Loved this filly watching her race from afar & like her even more having seen her in the flesh. She not only looks sharp, but her body is exactly the type you’d want to see in a young horse going two turns. Love her chances & hoping for more than 3-1 morning line.- Marcus Hersh
Vulnerable FavoriteIt is true SWEET REASON (#9, 5-2) was best in the Frizette. But now she tries two turns for the first time, while stuck outside, and unlikely for a good trip. Pass. -Brad Free There’s an overload of morning-workout information at the Breeders’ Cup, & it’s good not to get too caught up in all of it, but the widespread panning of SWEET REASON’s (#9, 5-2) one-mile workout has merit, and to me, she has not looked great in her day-to-day. Short-bodied compact model with legs not all that long – not sure she’s going to be more than a one-run sprinter, even if she does show her best.- Marcus Hersh
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Race 5 |
LAUGHING has been living right this season with two soft-trip wins (the Flower Bowl and Diana), and a bias-aided score (the Ballston Spa). But she’s also undefeated this year, and much improved, and is the absolute lone front-runner in this field. Laughing showed she can handle 10 furlongs with the right trip in the Flower Bowl; one more time. DANK’s European form was good, not great, but she could not have been more impressive winning the Beverly D. in her U. S. debut. But that was 2 1/2 months ago and she hasn’t raced since, and that’s a little unsettling even if she is in top hands. ROMANTICA’s Euro form is pretty much on a par with Dank’s, and in view of what Dank did at Arlington, she merits respect. MARKETING MIX hasn’t seemed as sharp this year as she was last year, but should get a great trip tracking Laughing early.- Mike Watchmaker ROMANTICA finished seventh in the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp on Sept. 15 and is encouragingly shipped over to America for the Filly and Mare Turf – an indication her connections are treating that race as a toss-out because she did not handle the soft ground. She showed high quality in France this year, winning a pair of races, including a Group 1. Well suited to 1 1/4 miles and firm turf. DANK was awesome in winning the Beverly D. in August, but will likely be overbet off that blowout victory. Suspect she will drop below her 5-2 morning line, a short price on a horse unraced since the summer. MARKETING MIX, last year’s Filly and Mare Turf runner-up, and TIZ FLIRTATIOUS are seemingly the top turf mares in the United States and little separates the pair, who have traded head decisions in a two matchups this year.- Byron King
Spot PlayROMANTICA (#2, 6-1) when last seen this Euro shipper finished up the track in the boggy Prix Vermeille against subsequent Arc winner, the 3yo filly Treve; she is now back at her optimum distance and will get the firm track that she prefers. Will be a handful.- Chuck Kuehhas
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Race 6 |
DANCE CARD was already up against it last time in the Gallant Bloom coming off a 10-month injury-related absence, but things got worse when she broke slowly and raced wide on a track where the rail was gold. She should improve a ton off that third-place finish and perhaps get back to the form she showed a year ago when she looked like a very serious horse in the making; can score at a price. DANCE TO BRISTOL also raced against the strong bias when second in the Gallant Bloom and won seven straight before that; logical contender. GROUPIE DOLL romped in this race last year and is terrific when on her game. The trouble is, her three performances this year say she doesn’t have her best game now. SWEET LULU was game when second in the Cotillion and winning the Test two back. She faces tougher, but the turnback in distance suits.- Mike Watchmaker DANCE TO BRISTOL could slip through the wagering cracks, without big-name connections and having trained out of sight for the BC at Bowie Training Center. She won seven in a row, capped by the Grade 1 Ballerina, before a second last out in a swiftly run Gallant Bloom. Champion GROUPIE DOLL, who romped in this race last year, has lost two of three since returning from a long layoff. She should move forward going from Polytrack to dirt, but given her current form, her reputation makes her an underlay at 5-2 odds or less. Late-running BOOK REVIEW came within a head of the top choice when second in the Ballerina. She should fire fresh off a steady diet of promising works. SWEET LULU lost for the first time when second in the Cotillion after winning her first four starts, including the Test.- Byron King
Spot PlayLongshot ISMENE (#6, 20-1) figures to clear the field at a big price. Few will take her seriously up front. She might get brave at a giant price. -Brad Free
Spot PlaySWEET LULU (#12, 8-1) cuts back to one turn out of pace setting effort in the Cotillion and is well-drawn outside; looking for her to be prominent throughout.- Chuck Kuehhas
Vulnerable FavoriteAfter three starts following a long layoff I’ve seen all I need to see – GROUPIE DOLL (#11, 5-2), so wonderful in 2012, just is not the same horse. She’s still being bet like she’s going to bounce back to her best form. I don’t see it. – Marcus Hersh
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Race 7 |
Past downhill-course success was important in the three Turf Sprints run at Santa Anita, and no one here has a better downhill record than MIZDIRECTION. She was 2 for 2 on the downhill before she won this race last year and has since added two more downhill stakes scores. She’s been off since June but by design, as she won last year off a slightly longer layoff. JERANIMO will love getting back on turf, and I like the cutback in distance. The big drawback: He has no downhill experience. RENEESGOTZIP was third in this last year in her only turf start, and while she loves Del Mar, her two wins there this year suggest she is even a better horse now; also intentionally fresh. UNBRIDLED’S NOTE, second in this last year, is poised to improve on his third in the Eddie D, as he was coming off a layoff, but is marooned in the 14 hole.- Mike Watchmaker Top three from 2012 Turf Sprint and top four from last month’s Eddie D closely matched on paper. Trying again with UNBRIDLED’S NOTE, 2012’s narrowly beaten favorite from post 13, who moves one stall wider after good finish between horses and strong gallop-out off bench. Defending titlist MIZDIRECTION is perfect on the downhill course, delivering her two fastest figures when fresh. CHIPS ALL IN edged Unbridled’s Note and fast-closing BOAT TRIP with a perfect stalking trip in Eddie D; only loss on this course was by a nose to the choice. Synthetic specialist Reneesgotzip was a close third vs. top two as a 3YO; may be even better now, but gets no easy lead vs. Tightend Touchdown.- Dave Litfin
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Race 8 |
TAP IT RICH only recently won his racing debut, and with the aid of a fast early pace to rally into. Nevertheless, he impressed while overcoming a slow start and a three- to four-wide trip, notably around two turns, and over the track. With only a few possible exceptions, this is not an imposing Juvenile field, and Tap It Rich has every license to take a significant step forward second time out. NEW YEAR’S DAY also comes off only a maiden win but over subsequent FrontRunner winner Bond Holder; sharp works over the track. HAVANA has the field’s best Beyers and was fast and game in winning the Champagne. But that had to be a draining effort stretching out from 5 1/2 to 8 furlongs, and he might take a step back stretching out to a route. He also drew a tough post. BOND HOLDER won his maiden in the FrontRunner but over suspect company.- Mike Watchmaker This race is usually won on or near lead. HAVANA might get desired position, despite a wide draw, given a lack of early speed other than turfer Diamond Bachelor. He relaxed tracking from rail in Champagne, held off Honor Code, and galloped out strongly. Mirrors Pletcher-trained Uncle Mo, who ran similar figures on similar schedule before a 108 Beyer in 2010 Juvenile. MEXIKOMA freaked with turf-to-dirt switch and blinkers on to bury maidens, earning what was the nation’s top juvenile two-turn Beyer. Considered for Nashua at Aqueduct, but all systems appear go. TAP IT RICH appears to be the most promising local runner after overcoming trouble in good debut; ambitious task second out. NEW YEAR’S DAY flattered by Bond Holder; sharp works here.- Dave Litfin
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Race 9 |
POINT OF ENTRY was best when second in this race last year and was terrific winning both of his starts this year. Point of Entry has been away since June because of injury, and it is highly uncharacteristic of his connections to not only come back in a spot like this, but to also ship across country to do it. He’s the best here on his day and is taken to return a winner. BIG BLUE KITTEN was unlucky to be nosed in the Joe Hirsch after a bit of traffic trouble into the stretch. He is much improved and dangerous. INDY POINT tackles much better here, but was visually impressive winning the local prep over the course. LITTLE MIKE was always a front-runner, yet he won this race last year and the Joe Hirsch by rating; contender. - Mike Watchmaker THE FUGUE, a troubled third in last year’s Filly and Mare Turf when boxed in for much of the race, has won two consecutive Group 1’s and is at her best on firm turf, the conditions expected Saturday; proven at 1 1/2 miles and has already defeated males. REAL SOLUTION has been on the board in three straight Grade 1’s; consistently posts promising speed figures. INDY POINT rebounded from a dismal effort in the Arlington Million to win the John Henry Turf Championship on this course in fast time, albeit over a modest group. LITTLE MIKE narrowly won the Joe Hirsch at Belmont to notch his first victory in five starts since scoring in this race last year; impressed by how he adapted to the presence of other speed that day, rating kindly in fifth.- Byron King
Spot PlayINDY POINT (#9, 9-2) think this is a somewhat weak edition of the Turf this year; his two SoCal races have been excellent and the JT combo has been quite an item since the jock’s return; will play to win and over #7 THE FUGUE and #8 POINT OF ENTRY, using ALL for 3RD in trifectas (9/7,8/ALL) and ALL for 4th in superfectas (9/7,8/7,8/ALL) . - Chuck Kuehhas
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Race 10 |
PRIVATE ZONE made it 2 for 2 since returning from Dubai when winning the Vosburgh last time. He has shown repeatedly to be very quick early and very game, and might even be better than he appears on paper because he tends to wait on his opposition before re-engaging. He likes the track, and can be the main speed if he chooses. SECRET CIRCLE recently returned from an 18-month absence to win an allowance race at the distance over the track. And though it was over softer company, he won in fast time and did not appear to be doing his best. He has back class and is intriguing. GENTLEMEN’S BET’s last two starts can be forgiven. One was on Polytrack and in the other he was needlessly involved in an early duel. His prior Beyers are competitive. JUSTIN PHILLIP was narrowly beaten by Private Zone in the Vosburgh. In sharp form, but might get shuffled too far back early.- Mike Watchmaker SECRET CIRCLE always appeared cut out to be a top-class sprinter, and he is back in his proper element. Asking a lot of him to win a Breeders’ Cup race with only one start in 18 months, but he couldn’t have looked any sharper in his final work for the Sprint and should sit a nice trip stalking what figures to be a hotly contested pace. PRIVATE ZONE is in peak form but is among a number of front-running types and may have to prove he can rate off leaders. JUSTIN PHILLIP has never been better. Ran against the track bias when narrowly beaten in the Vosburgh, and with right running style, he would have been top choice had he not drawn inside post. TRINNIBERG is winless since capturing this race in 2012 but might outrun his odds again.- Mike Welsch
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Race 11 |
WISE DAN did not run up to his standards when second last time in the Shadwell, a race that was switched late because of rain from turf to a Polytrack surface he has run big on in the past. However, Wise Dan has been too good for too long to not be given another chance, and should rebound considering the projected contested early pace sets up well for him. NO JET LAG upset the local prep at the distance over the course. He is now 2 for 2 in the U. S. A hot pace would also help his late kick. OLYMPIC GLORY romped in the Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot last time out. But he’s running back in only two weeks, and the fear is that might be too quick. The improving HE BE FIRE N ICE turned in yet another solid effort when second in the local prep. Merits respect. - Mike Watchmaker OLYMPIC GLORY looked like star running back Adrian Peterson, rating kindly in blinkers and shouldering through holes in the recent QE II at Ascot, after which trainer Richard Hannnon’s son and assistant said he “came out better than we could have hoped.” He is a group stakes winner on five courses in England and France and lost by a nose to top-class Moonlight Cloud (4 for 4 in 2013). WISE DAN returns to scene of his course-record triumph on virtually the same schedule as last year, except the Shadwell Mile was switched to rain-soaked synthetic and his win streak ended after being floated very wide early chasing Silver Max. Silver Max will not get a similarly easy lead drawn inside last year’s pacesetter Obviously, thus the reigning Horse of the Year may trip out nicely. BRIGHT THOUGHT briefly held the world record improving to 3 for 3 over the course winning San Luis Rey. Never a backward step figure-wise. NO JET LAG missed Wise Dan’s record by .06 of a second and is now 2 for 2 in the United States.- Dave Litfin
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Race 12 |
MUCHO MACHO MAN ran his best race since his second in last year’s Classic when a dominant winner of the Awesome Again, the local prep for this. Mucho Macho Man clearly loves Santa Anita and is versatile enough to be close early if the situation dictates or lay back if things get too hot up front; taken to score. FORT LARNED edged the pick in last year’s Classic, albeit with the grain of a speed track, and is positioned to improve on his winning prep for this. He wants to ramble early, though, and the pace here has the potential to be very fast. GAME ON DUDE has been the best horse in the U.S. this year but meets his best field since his loss in this race last year; no bargain as the favorite. RON THE GREEK has a giant race in him, as he showed in winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but he’s inconsistent.- Mike Watchmaker In a race loaded with legitimate contenders, RON THE GREEK should offer value despite a monstrous win last out. Turned in better-than-usual final work prior to shipping west and looked like a million dollars on track Wednesday. Post position the main concern, must stay closer to the pace than in 2012 Classic. PALACE MALICE was no match for top choice in Jockey Club Gold Cup but is a 3-year-old who improves with every start and looked great in his penultimate work at Belmont. GAME ON DUDE is training as well as ever, loves the track, but must deal with speed of Moreno and/or Fort Larned; major player but will be too short a price here. MUCHO MACHO MAN exits his best yet over local strip and should get perfect trip behind the speed. Flat Out looking great on track; will offer value, but must overcome tough post. - Mike Welsch
Spot PlayDidn’t pick DECLARATION OF WAR (#5, 10-1) on top in the paper, but after seeing him Thursday morning I moved him up a notch. He’s fast enough, he’s good enough, & this is his trip – the gamble is does the kickback knock him out of his game in the early going. Price will be right to find out. – Marcus Hersh
Vulnerable FavoriteGAME ON DUDE (#9, 9-5): Umm – am I misremembering the 2012 BC Classic? When GOD was training lights-out? In great form? Etc, etc? You have to admire a $5.5 million earner with his staying power, but he still never has beaten horses like the best in here. Grinding out a 10-furlong win close to a hot pace against competition this deep & tough – just can’t see it.- Marcus Hersh
Vulnerable FavoriteGAME ON DUDE (#9, 8-5) has had a wonderful year (5 for 5) and is no doubt the one to beat, particularly racing in his own backyard (7 for 8 here). That being said, his lone loss here came in this race last year when he didn’t break as sharply as desired, ending up in chase mode, and that’s not really his best game. He’s shown he can press and finish but he’s also made hay beating up, for the most part, guys who aren’t as good as the field he faces here. If he shows his customary high galloping speed that may lead him into chasing speedsters Fort Larned and Moreno, leaving him vulnerable come furlong No. 10. -Michael Hammersly
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