Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for November 1, 2013

Race 1

Live Longshot

PURE LOYALTY (#8, 8-1) cuts back from two turns in DelMar Derby and draws well for this downhill event; has been butting heads with many of today’s top contenders in today’s G-2 Twilight Derby and looks to run this group down in the lane.- Chuck Kuehhas

Closer Looks >>

Race 2

Closer Looks >>

Race 3

Closer Looks >>

Race 4

Closer Looks >>

Race 5

It seems just a couple months ago you could run a 3-year-old male grass race 10 times and get eight different winners. Well, that was the case until someone finally pushed his way to the fore. GABRIEL CHARLES has emerged from the pack and looks to strengthen his hold on the division out West in this 1 1/8-mile contest.

GABRIEL CHARLES (9-2 ML) won his division of the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby Sept. 1 by ‘only’ 1 1/4 lengths, but visually it was much more impressive than the margin might suggest. The colt bided his time, swung out into the lane and powered home to win going away. If they had done another half-furlong the margin would have been demonstrative.

He’s mired way outside here, yes, but at this distance (1 1/8 miles) he has the full front straightaway to get position. And his versatility comes into play there as well. He came from well back in his two strong Del Mar races but when he won the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint Preview hew a year ago he was able to stalk sizzling fractions (:21.60, :43.60) so he has the speed to be closer if rider Mike Smith feels the need.

There are few candidates to play supporting roles in the exotics. CHARMING KITTEN was no match for Friday’s foe KID DREAMS when second to that rival in the Grade 3 Hawthorne Derby, but that race was run in an absolute bog, conditions horses in the U.S. almost never see. It would have been a grueling test in Europe. It’s to his credit that ‘KITTEN kept on well for second. Now he get back to better footing and he’ shown ample quality.

KID DREAMS, as noted, ran out of his mind to win the Grade 3 Hawthorne Derby as he obviously relished the ground. He’ll likely never race under such conditions again, but don’t assume him to be a soft-course specialist. After all, he beat elders on firm turf at Del Mar this summer. In fact, the runner-up that day, Tom’s Tribute, came back to win again and then won the Uniformity Stakes on the hillside course here recently.

GERVINHO runs his race every time, finishing first or second in five of his six starts. And even in the one race where he didn’t do that, he ran fifth in the Grade 1 BC Juvenile Turf here a year ago and wasn’t beaten far at all (2 3/4 lengths). He was no match for GABRIEL CHARLES when second to that rival in their division of the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby but he has tactical speed, versatility and reliability so maybe the change of venue can help him close, negate or even overcome that gap. And a smashing 6-furlong turf work here Oct. 24 says he’s doing well (1:11.20). - Michael Hammersly

Spot Play

Vulnerable Favorite

The price on KID DREAMS (#7, 3-1) is based for the most part on his Oct. 5 HAW Derby win, and course conditions between that night and this day could not be more different. Slogging through a bog has very little relevance to winning on this fast-playing course. - Marcus Hersh

Closer Looks >>

Race 6

Foreign shippers have won three of the five Marathons, and I’m going with one of two such horses in here, LONDON BRIDGE. London Bridge won three straight in England this year going 10, 10, and 12 furlongs, and ran respectably in defeat in his last two. This is a 14-furlong test, and I like that he’s actually turning back in distance, having gone a furlong longer most recently. He’s an unknown on dirt, but he’s by Arch, so a successful surface switch is possible. WORLDLY was a respectable third to Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Fort Larned last time. The problem with Worldly is he doesn’t want to win. SUNS OUT GUNS OUT responded to blinkers in last out with the most decisive victory of his career; can contend. I liked CEASE in the 2011 Marathon, but he didn’t stay the trip. Still, he’s intriguing because his recent efforts are better than they appear on paper. - Mike Watchmaker

Late-running INDIAN JONES, first or second in his last four races, came within a nose of winning the 1 ½-mile Grade 3 Greenwood Cup this summer at Parx; consistently performs at a high level and should get ample pace. CEASE won an optional claimer at Belmont Oct. 10, and may work out a favorable stalking trip; a $100,000 claim this summer at Saratoga, he possesses back class, having won a stake and placed in three graded ones as a younger horse. WORLDY earned a 101 Beyer Speed Figure for a third behind 2012 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Fort Larned in the Homecoming Classic, but typically runs Beyers in the 90s and 80s; bred to like 1 ¾ miles but winless since the summer of 2011. SUNS OUT GUNS OUT ran fourth in a muddy Greenwood Cup, and then returned to crush second-level allowance competition at Parx; still, yet to win anything other than a maiden race and two allowances.- Byron King

Closer Looks >>

Race 7

Bobby’s Kitten is a real runner, but Europeans have won four of the six runnings of this race, so why fight it? GIOVANNI BOLDINI hails from the barn of Aidan O’Brien, who won the last two Juvenile Turfs. Giovanni Boldini’s two wins came on a synthetic surface at Dundalk, but his third in a Group 1 on turf two back at The Curragh makes him competitive with this group, and his favorable draw puts him in line for a sweet pocket trip. BOBBY’S KITTEN was most impressive in winning the Pilgrim in fast time and is by far the best U.S. hope. OUTSTRIP’s group stakes efforts in his last three were all good, but his Group 2 Champagne win two back was the best of them, as he romped despite a bad start. WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, the other O’Brien-trained entrant, also ran well in group stakes in his last three starts, all on turf.- Mike Watchmaker

6-1 shot BASHART won the Grade 2 With Anticipation at Saratoga before returning with a second in the Grade 3 Bourbon at Keeneland; he ran well in defeat after being steadied early and falling further behind than accustomed while racing over Polytrack; some will avoid due to him landing the 13 hole, but with his natural speed and a fairly long run to the first turn, his post is probably a non factor. BOBBY’S KITTEN was a dominant winner of the Grade 3 Pilgrim to improve his record to two-for-three; difficult to fault, aside from being a short price, likely around 2-1 odds. GIOVANNI BOLDINI won two of three overseas, and was Group 1 placed in his only defeat; most intriguing of the Euros. OUTSTRIP comes off a fine British campaign in which he won two races, including a Group 2; unfortunately he has broken slowly in two of four starts, which doesn’t bode well for an alert start first time in the U.S.- Byron King

Spot Play

While the BC Juvenile Turf has a legit favorite in BOBBY’S KITTEN, BON ACCORD (#8, 20-1) is the knockout. He habitually outruns his odds, handles turf, and stays a route. -Brad Free

Closer Looks >>

Race 8

It was an inspired move bringing GOLDENCENTS back as a sprinter over the summer, and he ran quite well finishing second against older opponents three straight times. But now Goldencents stretches back out to two turns, and the fact that he won the Santa Anita Derby and Sham early this year routing over this track does jump out at you. He must be sent from the gate to get position from his tough outside post but is still the pick. HYMN BOOK’s third in the Kelso was sneaky good as he rallied willingly into a very slow pace; chance at a price. BRUJO DE OLLEROS also was compromised by the slow fractions when second in the Kelso and is much improved this year. VERRAZANO is talented and this distance might be a match, but the fields he’s beaten, save for the Wood Memorial, don’t really impress.0 Mike Watchmaker

Post 10 is favorable for VERRAZANO, who is brilliant on his best day and prefers to run outside. His Grade 1 wins have come breaking toward the outside. His main early-pace opponents are Taptowne, who has given up leads frequently; Fed Biz, who has run best at Del Mar; and Alpha, who is not a good shipper. GOLDEN TICKET exhibits a favorable Beyer pattern, having been freshened off paired tops in early summer and returning with a classic “bid, hung” line over the track in the Awesome Again; sleeper. BRUJO DE OLLEROS took time to acclimate, but the Brazilian import arrives in peaking form after outfinishing Hymn Book in the Kelso, a race in which both were compromised by a slow pace on a speed-conducive track. GOLDENCENTS, along with Fed Biz, tries to become the Dirt Mile’s first stretch-out winner. - Dave Litfin

Spot Play

The favorites are okay; GOLDEN TICKET (#2, 12-1) could upset shortening one furlong after flattening out late racing a mile and one eighth. Although ’TICKET is a late-runner on a speed-favoring surface, his odds justify the risk. -Brad Free

Spot Play

Narrowly prefer Golden Ticket but think both him and HYMN BOOK (#3, 15-1) can do some damage at odds in a hot-paced edition of the Dirt Mile. GOLDEN TICKET got in a useful local prep vs. tougher and turns back to better distance off a sharp work. Hymn Book had no pace at which to run last out at Belmont and is good enough.- Marcus Hersh

Vulnerable Favorite

Best races for VERRAZANO (#10, 3-1) come from on or near lead, and the pace here is almost certainly very hot. His trip in his one apparently superior performance, the Haskell, was absolutely dreamy, and to these eyes he has not made a strong favorable impression here this week. - Marcus Hersh

Closer Looks >>

Race 9

Only one European was successful in the five runnings of this race, but that was Flotilla last year; the Euros got a boost this fall when Testa Rossi brought her modest French form here and won the Miss Grillo, our fastest prep. AL THAKHIRA is the pick. She dominated in her first two starts in England, including a Group 2 last out, and is backed by a barn that is adept with shippers to this country. CHRISELLIAM was a big surprise when she won a Group 1 at Newmarket at this distance, but she is improving and very dangerous. VORDA won a Group 1 sprint at Newmarket in her last; the added distance is the question. TESTA ROSSI ran well in the Miss Grillo, albeit with a favorable setup. My Conquestadory won stakes in her first two starts over suspect opposition; dreadful post. - Mike Watchmaker

American-based runners have dominated the superfecta positions (17 of 20) through the first five runnings, but French invader Flotilla broke through to win at 11-1 last year. And seeing as those with the three fastest U.S. grass figures drew posts 12, 13, and 14, the lean is to the Europeans once again. In terms of their recent Racing Post Ratings, little separates VORDA, CHRISELLIAM, and AL THAKHIRA, who are preferred in that order. Vorda has won group stakes in France and England, although Chriselliam has an advantage in terms of experience at the distance and with left-hand turns. Al Thakhira didn’t beat much at Newmarket but may be set to improve in just her third start, whereas the other two have been running since the spring. TESTA ROSSI spotted the field a head start but still won the Miss Grillo in her U.S. debut.- Dave Litfin - Dave Litfin

Spot Play

An absence of pace gives NESSO (#1, 20-1) a chance to steal it. She drew inside, has speed, and will be on or near the lead in a mile turf likely to unfold at a soft tempo. -Brad Free

Spot Play

AL THAKHIRA (#2, 6-1) could be higher odds than this. Encouraging action in her two comfortable Euro win. She is likely to handle the stretchout and seems athletic enough to deal with the tight SA course. - Marcus Hersh

Closer Looks >>

Race 10

ROYAL DELTA was merely second best behind Princess of Sylmar last time in the Beldame, but in retrospect, I wonder how tightly wound she was for that race. Royal Delta had only easy breezes going into the Beldame but has worked much sharper since. I envision Royal Delta rebounding much the way she did last year when she followed a loss in the Personal Ensign with one of the most impressive performances of her accomplished career winning the 2012 Beldame. BEHOLDER loves Santa Anita and had something in reserve when she beat her elders in the Zenyatta, but she will see severe pressure at some point from Royal Delta. PRINCESS OF SYLMAR was tremendous in the Beldame, but that was to be her season finale, only to have this engagement added on late. Often, schedule changes like this tend to backfire. AUTHENTICITY is a fine mare, but she isn’t as good as the top three. - Mike Watchmaker

There are only six horses in this field, but cases can be made for just about all of them. At her best, ROYAL DELTA is the one to beat, and she gave every indication she is ready to peak again on the big stage considering the way she’s been training up to the race. She must avoid a potential early conflict with the razor-sharp BEHOLDER, who certainly holds the home-court advantage. AUTHENTICITY was no match for the top choice in the Personal Ensign or for Beholder from off a relatively slow pace in the Zenyatta, but she continues to train extremely well and never runs a poor one. PRINCESS OF SYLMAR has been a win machine since the Oaks, but she tries the local surface for first time and must not regress off her outstanding performance in the Beldame.- Mike Welsch

Spot Play

ROYAL DELTA is the most likely winner; AUTHENTICITY (#2, 8-1) is the upset special. She ran better than looked in her final prep, and trained super since. -Brad Free

Vulnerable Favorite

ROYAL DELTA (#4, 8-5) is no doubt a beast as she’s the 2-time defending champion. However, the race shape may not be as favorable to her this time around. Beholder, to her inside, figures quicker and if this gal is content to sit and stalk, all the while watching and waiting for top 3yo filly Princess of Sylmar to make her run from the back, well, that could leave Beholder on her own up front and you know she’s got the quality to carry her speed all the way. This gal is wonderful to be sure, but she may be between a rock and a hard place chasing a top 3yo filly while worrying about the game’s other top 3yo filly bearing down on her from behind. -Michael Hammersly

Vulnerable Favorite

ROYAL DELTA has been working bullets, but race stress is something different. Supposedly prepping for this in Beldame, but keep in mind she won that in an absolute romp last year. Won Distaff twice, been to Dubai twice – lots of miles on this fabulous creature. Surrendered to Princess of Sylmar a little too readily last out, & the trip here is tricky with speedy Beholder just outside and P of Sylmar’s stable-mate Authenticity capable of showing speed to the inside. Not saying leave out – but tread cautiously. - Marcus Hersh

Closer Looks >>