Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for May 4, 2014

Race 1

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Race 2

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Race 3

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Race 4

Honeymoon Stakes by Michael Hammersly

Round 1 between DIVERSY HARBOR and NASHOBA’S GOLD was the mile China Doll here March 8, and a powerful finish gave round one to DIVERSY HARBOR. In round two, the Grade 3 Providencia at 1 1/8 miles on turf here April 5, NASHOBA’S GOLD got first run while DIVERSY HARBOR sat back, had to chase and had traffic issues. Put round 2 in NASHOBA’S GOLD’s corner.

Sunday’s Grade 3 Honeymoon represents round 3 between these two very smart 3-year-old fillies. There’s little separating them but the feeling here is the smaller field (there were 10 in the Providencia; there are only seven in here) may mean DIVERSY HARBOR won’t have the same traffic ills and she can turn the tables.

DIVERSY HARBOR, a daughter of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin (who, many forget, ran second in his only grass start, the Grade 1 Man o’ War, beaten by Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Red Rocks), has shown wonderful late acceleration, and it hasn’t mattered the distance. She blasted home to win going away in her debut at about 6 1/2 furlongs on the hillside turf course; as noted her big run to win the China Doll came at a mile. She then finished well after traffic issues at this distance in the Providencia.

She again likely has to go and GET NASHOBA’S GOLD. After all, that miss has more tactical speed and figures more forwardly placed, particularly with her rail draw. But the fact DIVERSY HARBOR won a sprint indicates she can move earlier, that she doesn’t have to wait, wait, wait…until it’s too late. She was making a threatening move into the lane in the Providencia when she came up behind horses and had to wait. That was the nail in the coffin. While she was waiting, NASHOBA’S GOLD got first run and kicked clear and while DIVERSY HARBOR found room late it was, well, too late.

The smaller field here may mean rider Gary Stevens won’t have as many hurdles in his way turning for home. Also, Stevens, who has ridden her in all three starts, knows the burst she possesses, meaning he may well opt to stay wide and out of traffic, to give her clear sailing turning for home making sure she doesn’t get stopped or have to hesitate or wait a la a shopper trying to maneuver through the mall just days before Christmas. She was sent off at even-money in the Providencia; NASHOBA’S GOLD was 5-2. While ‘GOLD won the Providencia DIVERSY HARBOR may still go favored here, particularly as many saw the traffic issues she had in the Providencia.

NASHOBA’S GOLD is absolutely legit. The sister to top-class Nashoba’s Key, a multiple Grade 1 winner on turf, has done nothing wrong in three starts. She and ‘HARBOR have a budding rivalry going here and they figure close on the board – DIVERSY HARBOR likely around 7-5, NASHOBA’S GOLD likely around 8-5. There are others in here who have merit: ONE MORE was third behind the top two in the Providencia after getting within a head of the lead in midstretch, so she can’t be taken lightly, and HONEY RIDE tries grass for the first time, a surface she’s bred for being by Candy Ride (Group 1/Grade 2 winner on turf). She also comes out of a very tough race, having run fourth in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks.

Those two are legitimate threats but the Honeymoon looks ready to come down to the big two. Says here round 3 goes to DIVERSY HARBOR.

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Race 5

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Race 6

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Race 7

Spot Play

AIRFOIL (#10, 4-1) ran on smartly to beat maidens sprinting here Jan. 26. He ran on well, too, in his first 2 tries against winners here, finishing 2nd March 8 and 3rd April 5, but on each occasion he left himself with a bit too much to do. New rider Bejarano may attempt to keep him a bit closer today and he also gets some help in terms of distance – those 2 losses came going 6 1/2fs and 6fs. He gets a full 7fs with which to work today and that may make the difference. -Michael Hammersly

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Race 8

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