Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for May 31, 2014

Race 1

Closer Looks >>

Race 2

Spot Play

WHINE FOR WINE (#4, 7-2) broke his maiden nicely enough here March 15 that they tossed him right into a stakes (the Echo Eddie, April 5) and he was sent off the favorite. Well, things didn’t go so well as he chased a sizzling pace and gave way. He dropped back to this level here May 3 but got away slowly. To his credit he kept to his task and finished with good energy for 3rd. That showed there no ill effects from his stakes try and with a better start today he can sit closer while stalking and pounce. A bullet 1:13.20 move here May 22 says he’s doing well. -Michael Hammersly

Closer Looks >>

Race 3

Closer Looks >>

Race 4

Spot Play

SIZZLIN' JOE (#3, 6-1) is two for two this meet with Joe Talamo up, with both wins coming at this distance of 1 1/8 miles on the grass; owns good figures, too; likely to offer value with stakes dropping Schoolofhardknocks being overbet. –Byron King

Vulnerable Favorite

SCHOOLOFHARDROCKS (#2, 2-1) was a fine 2nd in his first turf start, which was also a stakes, here May 3, proving he handles this footing. Remember, too, they thought enough of him that for his first 2 starts of this year he ran in the Grade 2 San Felipe and Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby (chasing monster California Chrome in each). So while he may deserve favoritism coming out of stakes ranks while proving he can handle turf remember today we're routing (that good turf try came sprinting down the hill) and it's first time vs. elders, which is still no small matter this time of year. These are some tough elders to boot so as you can see there are hurdles. -Michael Hammersly

Closer Looks >>

Race 5

Closer Looks >>

Race 6

Closer Looks >>

Race 7

Californian Stakes by Michael Hammersly

It’s no surprise FURY KAPCORI is a really nice horse. After all, as a 2-year-old in 2012 they thought enough of him to bring him to SoCal (after a SW at Fresno) to run in BHP’s Real Quiet, where he was a very good 2nd. That earned him a shot at the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity there and after dueling ran 2nd to the very impressive Todd Pletcher runner violence. He looked like a potential Derby horse.

Alas, he was sidelined and missed all of the Triple Crown, not resurfacing until August. And while he decently he was unable to win in his first five starts and you had to wonder if he wasn’t going to develop they way the initially thought. However, a good 2nd on turf at BHP last fall he’s come here and flourished, delivering on that early promise. The son of HOY Tiznow has won four straight this meet, including the Santana Mile March 30 and Grade 3 Precisionist May 3. He’s been beating up on many of the very same rivals he faces here, so why should this result be any different?

Sure, he’s got to deal with more ground (1 1/8 miles) but he’s bred to actually do BETTER as the furlongs add up as daddy was a 2-time Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and damsire Go for Gin only won the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby. Also, with maturity has come more professionalism and handiness; he’s no need-the-lead horse. Sure, his natural gallop can take him to the lead but should he get outrun early here, which is possible what with the presence of STORM FIGHTER and MAJESTIC CITY it won’t faze him in the least. He’ll just sit off them and pounce when rider Corey Nakatani sees fit.

There is one thing to not like about FURY KAPCORI in this spot: the price. He’s been favored in those last four wins, going off at 8-5, 1-1, 4-5 and 2-5, and figures odds-on again here.

But that doesn’t make this race unplayable. We’ve talked before how you can take a big favorite and turn his short odds into possibly a 7-2 or 4-1 exacta payoff.

While FURY KAPCORI appears to hold the aces here, there are at least a couple candidates to fill that supporting role in the exacta. CLUBHOUSE RIDE last year had the misfortune of chasing Game on Dude, and it finally took a toll as his form deteriorated last summer. He was sidelined and now with four races under his belt looks as though he may be getting back to the form that saw him win this race last year and give ‘Dude fits at least a couple times. He was 3rd to ‘KAPCORI in the Santana Mile so he needs to improve to make up ground on that foe. However, after that he shipped east to CT and was a solid 4th in the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic. The three who beat him were Imperative (also Grade 2 placed), Game on Dude (obvious top-class horse) and Moreno (Grade 1 placed last year at 3, pointing for the Grade 1 Met Mile). Probably the only horse in this race that deserves mention with those three would be FURY KAPCORI. And if by chance CLUBHOUSE RIDE is ready to move forward and ‘KAPCORI doesn’t continue his superb form, well, stranger things have happened. Two bullet works for CLUBHOUSE RIDE since the trip East say he’s doing wonderfully.

Two other candidates are STORM FIGHTER, who appears to have turned the corner for Bruce Headley with two big recent wins including a Beyer earned April 26 that compares favorably with ‘KAPCORI (104), and MAJESTIC HARBOR who comes off a smashing in win in the Grade 3 Tokyo City March 29. That race came going longer (1 1/2 miles) but he’s been freshened since so the distance cutback won’t be as big an issue. The way he stalked and then blew the race open on the far turn was impressive and previous good Grade 2 efforts show he’s no fish out of water at this level.

Closer Looks >>

Race 8

American Oaks by Michael Hammersly

There’s little doubt her recent exploits establish NASHOBA’S GOLD as the one to beat here. She’s bred to be any kind being by Smart Strike (Grade 1 winner, sire of 2-time HOY Curlin, sire of grass champ English Channel) and kin to the fantastic turf mare Nashoba’s Key. She’s delivered on that promise, winning three of her four starts, the last two being the Grade 3 Providencia and Grade 2 Honeymoon over a number of the same gals she faces here. The added distance here (1 1/4 miles) shouldn’t have her turn a hair and she’s worked well since.

All that being said, she’s no secret and after going off at 7-10 last time in the Honeymoon it’s conceivable she goes off even shorter today. And while her four starts were strong it’s not as if the Beyers came back overwhelming (78, 84, 82, 79).

New shooter ROOM SERVICE, however, has done some mighty nice work herself. The daughter of More Than Ready won the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride in impressive fashion on the GP sod March 2, earning a smart 88 Beyer. That was enough for her connections to take a swing at the deep end in KEE’s Grade 1 Ashland April 5. In that race, her first try on footing other than turf, ROOM SERVICE lagged far back and didn’t appear to be going anywhere. However, she unleashed a super run which got her to the wire on even terms with the highly talented Rosalind (who came back in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and may next ship to England for a Group 1 engagement). That validated her quality and her prior form may mean THIS (turf) is actually her preferred surface. She’s worked well since and another most encouraging sign is that a sharp trainer like Wayne Catalano opted to ship her across the country, into hostile territory, knowing full well he’d be running into NASHOBA’S GOLD, DIVERSY HARBOR and some other SoCal toughies in THEIR backyard. And still he came.

There isn’t a reason in the world she shouldn’t relish this longer trip and whereas NASHOBA’S GOLD figures to be hammered again, pushing her to probably close to 1-1 range, meaning ROOM SERVICE figures a much more attractive price (3-1ish, perhaps?), a number that looks even better when you note she’s actually out-Beyered ‘GOLD.

DIVERSY HARBOR looked the early division leader out West when she won her turf sprint debut and then gave NASHOBA’S GOLD her only loss when rallying past that gal to win the China Doll. Alas, she broke poorly and ran 2nd in the Grade 3 Providencia, then was rank and ended up dueling in the Grade 2 Honeymoon before finishing 3rd. She’s certainly best when she can settle and make one run and being by 2-time HOY Curlin she, too, doesn’t figure to have issue with this distance. Her issue is her own behavior. If she can relax and settle and return to her best form, which is as a deep closer, she can certainly be scary. ROOM SERVICE and DIVERSY HARBOR are capable of big things. Both figure to be much higher on the board than NASHOBA’S GOLD and their talents show ‘GOLD doesn’t have much, if any, margin for error.

Closer Looks >>

Race 9

Closer Looks >>