Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for May 18, 2014

Race 1

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Race 2

Vulnerable Favorite

TIZ THE KEY (#4, 5-2) sure looked good whipping maidens on dirt here April 4 in her first start in 6 months. So while she deserves much attention for that big return win we are NOT on dirt today and she is NOT facing maidens still so there’s surface switch and she faces some tough winners. Her only prior turf try came vs. winners on this course last fall and she was no factor (7th) so there’s some question as to her turf prowess. -Michael Hammersly

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Race 3

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Race 4

Spot Play

QUINETTE (#4, 7-2) is a hard knocking former claimer with a 7 for 13 record on dirt tracks, with two of those victories coming at SA; moves from turf to dirt and has move-up potential with the surface switch. –Byron King

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Race 5

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Race 6

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Race 7

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Race 8

Adoration Stakes by Michael Hammersly

Jerry Hollendorfer isn’t in the Hall of Fame because he puts his horses in the wrong spots so the fact he shipped LET FAITH ARIS to OP for the Grade 1 Apple Blossom, considering he knew exactly who he’d be up against, should tell you all you need to know as to his assessment of his 4-year-old filly: that she’s pretty darn nice.

He knew he was shipping across the country to run into Close Hatches, one of the top three or four gals in the country, and On Fire Baby, who probably ranks as number five or six in a brutal division (Beholder, Princess of Sylmar, Dreaming of Julia, etc.). His confidence had to be buoyed by her superb run in the Grade 1 Santa Margarita here March 15. Oh, she’s run well prior with a pair of second-place finishes in a couple Grade 2, but she put it all together in the Santa Margarita. She jumped right into a duel with Iotapa (who’d beaten her in the Grade 2 Santa Maria the race prior), got the better of that tough gal into the lane and edged away late, earning a 100 Beyer.

When she went to OP she ran her customary good race. She stalked the pace and stayed on decently for fourth, earning a 95 fig. It’s just that against the likes of Close Hatches and On Fire Baby that type of fig isn’t quite going to cut it.

Hollendorfer brought her back home and has found a great spot for her. There’s no one like the top four or five other gals to deal with here. Not only that, but her versatility gives rider Corey Nakatani all sorts of options. When she won a stakes at PLN last spring she did so from well off the pace. Her aforementioned two good seconds in Grade 2s earlier this meet were accomplished from just off the pace. And, as noted, her Grade 1 Santa Margarita win came as she battled for the lead from the start. In other words, however the race shapes up is fine by her.

On this day with her rail draw and not a ton of other speed lined up against her it could be déjà vu all over again, that with a quick clean break Nakatani can push her right up to set the pace, to dictate tempo and try to play keep-away all the way around. And if by chance someone really wants to make the running, no sweat – Corey can take a light hold and go on the stalk. One concern is how she’ll respond to a big effort in the Santa Margarita, shipping across the country to Arkansas, running hard again and then shipping back. But she’s worked very nicely four times since the Apple Blossom, relieving the anxiety you might have as to whether that outing took some of the starch out of her.

WARREN’S VENEDA posted the best race of her life over this track routing. She won an optional claimer here Oct. 13 by 7 1/4 lengths, posting a big 93 Beyer. From there she went in a stakes (Cat’s Cradle) at BHP Nov. 17 and won there as if she’d turned the corner. She was then a non-threatening third in the Grade 2 Bayakoa there (beaten 9 3/4 lengths) and afterward they opted to give her some time off. She didn’t resurface until the Spring Fever, a sprint stakes here, April 26 when she kept to her task to be third, albeit well beaten (7 lengths). The good news, though, is surely needed that race and now trainer Craig Lewis moves her back to a route and up in class, both most encouraging. To add to that optimism is she since worked strongly here, posting a bullet 5 furlongs (:59.40) May 9. That tells you she’s doing well and feeling spry and may be ready to return to the form we saw last fall, which would mean LET FAITH ARISE can’t just show up and win.

LEGACY is an interesting price play. She won two of her first three starts this meet, enough to earn a shot at the Santa Lucia here April 20. Well, her connections couldn’t have known that champion Beholder was pointing for that race as well. Needless to say LEGACY was no match for Beholder (few are) but she set a modest pace and kept to her task well to be a clear second, finishing 3 1/2 lengths ahead of the others. That represented another step forward and now trainer John Sadler tries graded stakes.

You can’t say this spot is tougher – there’s no one in here like Beholder. And if by chance LET FAITH ARISE doesn’t fire or gets lost on the way to the paddock then LEGACY looks as good as any, particularly as she continues to trend north. Another step forward can certainly put her in the exotics mix and her tactical speed means she figures in the thick of it from the start.

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Race 9

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Race 10

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