Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for May 17, 2014

Race 1

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Race 2

Spot Play

PASS THE PICO (#3, 3-1) didn’t fire in his latest when breaking from the rail, but is dropped sharply in class and looks ready for a return to form; starts from February through April were good, and if repeated, likely strong enough to win this –Byron King

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Race 3

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Race 4

American Stakes by Michael Hammersly

Learning to relax some while still utilizing his tactical speed has taken WINNING PRIZE to the top of the heap among West Coast middle-distance turfers. The one-time Argentinean hotshot came to the U.S. with significant press clipping and hoopla – and he’s showing now what the fuss was all about. Under the care of Neil Drysdale, who handled such middle-distance turf beasts as Labeeb and Hawksley Hill, WINNING PRIZE is primed for a big year. Heck, it’s already been a nice year as he won Grade 2 Arcadia nicely here Feb. 1 and the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile gamely here March 8. He’s been freshened a bit since as Drysdale maps out a plan to get to his ultimate goal: the Grade 1 BC Mile here in the fall.

And as the horse’s comfort level increases, so, too, does his effectiveness. Best of all, he can’t be pigeonholed into a specific style. He has speed, yes, but is by no means speed-crazy. He can pass horses, yes, but isn’t a one-dimensional deep closer who needs all the breaks in terms of pace and traffic. In fact, his heady combination of speed and stamina for this type of trip leads to trouble-free trips: he can sit close enough to prevent a rival from stealing a race while also getting first run on the closers and not having to worry about traffic issues. And his stamina has played out well in recent starts as he showed he could carry his talent all the way to the line at these middle distances. And while he can likely be effective at up to 1 1/8 miles, this particular trip (1 mile) may be his best game, too.

Tactically he should fall into another great trip here. No doubt classy OBVIOUSLY is the speed of this race, and for OBVIOUSLY to have his best chance he need use that speed – go right to the front and try to gallop them into the ground, a la Lure. PURE TACTICS, coming out of grass sprints where he showed ample speed, figures to be humming along early as well. That means WINNING PRIZE won’t have to make the running and those two speedsters almost surely will give ‘PRIZE a wonderful target to chase until rider Corey Nakatani decides to hit the gas.

There’s all sorts of good news here – style, sharpness, class, current form, versatility. Well, it’s not all good. Don’t expect to get rich on him as the word is out and he’s no secret any longer. In other words, expect something in the 6-5 range.

That doesn’t mean, however, you can’t take a $4.20 win payoff for your $2 bucks and try to turn it into a $10 or so exacta payoff for your $2 bucks.

SILENTIO has done some of his best work on this course (won the 2013 Grade 1 Kilroe Mile; rallied for third in the Grade 1 BC Mile here last fall). He kept to his task decently to be fifth in this year’s Kilroe Mile, but couldn’t catch WINNING PRIZE. Still, he was beaten just two lengths, hardly a gap he can’t overcome. He’s been working well, too.

OBVIOUSLY hasn’t run since setting a hot pace in the Grade 1 BC Mile here Nov. 2 and faltering to fifth behind Wise Dan. He’s been working lights out and is proven fresh. He won this race at BHP last spring and a return to top form can make him elusive. But his last three starts of 2013 didn’t show the same verve he’d exhibited prior. Also, there’s other speed in here and WINNING PRIZE doesn’t figure to let OBVIOUSLY get too far away.

SMART ELLIS is interesting. He hasn’t been seen in over a year and was doing the bulk of his work going longer. However, he returns as a first-time gelding with some smart works for a Hall of Fame trainer (Mandella) who could surely have opted for some other spot. The fact Mandella puts him in into such a tough spot off this kind of layoff is intriguing. He’s Grade 2-placed so he’s got some quality.

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Race 5

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Race 6

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Race 7

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Race 8

Spot Play

MISDEED (#9, 5-2) looks ready to turn the corner. The son of Rock Hard Ten perked up on turf here March 16 when finishing 4th. He improved further when dropped to this level ($50) for a turf route April 25, rallying smartly for 3rd, beaten just a half-length. There’s no further drop by his Hall of Fame trainer Mandella, and usually on Mandella gets ‘em on the right path they tend to stay there. And if anything today’s extra furlong may play to his liking. -Michael Hammersly

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Race 9

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Race 10

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Race 11

Vulnerable Favorite

FIGHT THE POWER (#1, 7-2) opens the tepid favorite after some good work at OP and coming here first time off the $40K claim. It’s also nice to see he shows up here without a tag attached. That being said, those last 4 good outings all came vs. restricted claimers. These aren’t monsters but they may be tougher than those. Also, this guy must deal with a track he’s never seen before. -Michael Hammersly

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Race 12

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