Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for May 10, 2014

Race 1

Closer Looks >>

Race 2

Closer Looks >>

Race 3

Closer Looks >>

Race 4

Spot Play

Closer Looks >>

Race 5

Closer Looks >>

Race 6

Closer Looks >>

Race 7

Closer Looks >>

Race 8

Laz Barrera Stakes by Marcus Hersh

Since Laz Barrera trained the Puerto Rican champ Bold Forbes to win the Kentucky Derby, you almost have to give the Puerto Rican import TONITO M. a look as he makes his mainland debut in the Laz Barrera Stakes.

Omens aside, the horse is a tough read but potential value at something close to his morning-line odds of 6-1, though it’s really hard to say what his price will be. The fact he ran only in short fields and against the same couple horses on multiple occasions in Puerto Rico is cause for skepticism, but the horse was about 1-5 in his career debut & appears to have been very highly regarded from the start. He’s won easily from six furlongs up to 8.5, and this 7fs trip looks like a good fit. Tonito M., purchased privately since his most recent start, was being considered for the Illinois Derby several weeks ago, passed it, and after a fast gate work, looks fit enough to show whatever he has today. Trainer Hollendorfer remains one of the best plays anywhere in graded stakes: 20% wins with $2.30 ROI from most recent 122-starter sample.

KOBE’S BACK will almost certainly be favored and is definitely the one to beat. The two-turn try in the Rebel is a total toss, and his trip last out in the Bay Shore was poor. Now he’s back to the same circumstances – 7fs at Santa Anita -- as the Feb. 16 San Felipe, the best race of his life. Kobe’s Back might not have all that much pace at which to run, but I don’t see either of the two obvious stakes-debuting alternatives, FEROCIOUS and CHELIOS, knocking him off here.

FEROCIOUS has impressed two races in a row with his willingness to continue on when stuck in a pace battle between horses, but he just has not been especially impressive on the clock or visually. If Tonito M fails to show speed, however, he could be loose from the rail on a moderate pace. CHELIOS had a far tougher trip than Ferocious when the latter beat him on April 12, but here again, one wonders if the upside is high enough to take down an “A” race from Kobe’s Back today, and if I’m trying to beat the favorite, I’m trying the Puerto Rican import.

Vulnerable Favorite

QUEEN OF THE HILL (#7, 3-1) opens the tepid favorite off 2 smashing wins. Indeed, those 2 big April victories hint she may be a brand new girl, but note both came on dirt – she was off the board in her only grass try. Also, both came vs. much weaker ($8K, $14K claimers) so she’s well up in class today. That speaks of confidence but that and the footing question make taking a short price a tad risky. -Michael Hammersly

Closer Looks >>

Race 9

Spot Play

CLASSY AVA (#5, 7-2) stalked the pace in her debut here March 29 and stayed on well to be a nice 2nd behind a runaway winner. That effort looks even better when you note 2 she beat that day came right back to win. That was just her debut, too, so she can surely move forward, and there are 4 works since to encourage including a snappy :47.80 move here May 5 to indicate she’s feeling spry. -Michael Hammersly

Closer Looks >>