Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for March 8, 2014

Race 1

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Race 2

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Race 3

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Race 4

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Race 5

San Felipe Stakes by Marty McGee

Clearly the scratch of Bayern (#6) because of a minor injury robs this Kentucky Derby prep of some luster, but it’s still an excellent race. Of the favorites – California Chrome (#4), Kristo (#7), and Midnight Hawk (#9) – the clear preference here is Midnight Hawk, considering he deserves another chance as a beaten favorite behind Candy Boy in the Lewis. His two prior races were terrific, and it’d be exciting to see him rebound with another big one here for Baffert.

But what about hearing from another country? Let’s key Midnight Hawk not only with the other chalks, but also with Rprettyboyfloyd (#3) for Nakatani on the stretchout and Schoolofhardrocks (#8) getting first Lasix and Talamo after some pretty flashy works. A $1 tri key of 9 over 3, 4, 7, 8 equals $24, as does a $1 super key. And you can always manipulate other tickets so as to play him in the second-hole, or however you feel most comfortable making it work.

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Race 6

Live Longshot

ANNIVERSARY KITTY (#1, 12-1) broke from 14 hole, was 4 wide on first turn, then 6-7 wide on far turn before finishing with interest and going out well after race; much better draw as she gets the hedge today, but thinking she may be half the listed price. - Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 7

San Carlos Stakes by Byron King

A terrific renewal of the San Carlos is on tap Saturday, going as the seventh race, two races before the Big Cap. The preference here is to go with the hot horse, WILD DUDE, who has rattled off three straight wins for Hollendorfer, including twice over this track in 2014. He gamely outfinished Secret Circle, the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner, in winning the Palos Verdes last time out, and he doesn’t have to contend with him again in this spot. SHAKIN IT UP is a three-time graded winner and at the top of his game after taking the Malibu and the Strub, but those races were restricted by age – with the Malibu being for 3-year-olds and the Strub for 4-year-olds. Now he is taking on older and sometimes more experienced rivals. Still, he’s mighty good. SAHARA SKY was one of the best sprinter/milers over the first half of 2013, and carried his form east, too, winning the Met Mile. A flat return in the Palos Verdes when fifth left much to be desired, however. Perhaps he merely needed the race after being away since May.

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Race 8

Kilroe Mile by Michael Hammersly

A few weeks ago we tabbed, in this spot, WINNING PRIZE to take the Grade 2 Arcadia and the South American import came through with flying colors. Surely Satuday’s Grade 1 Kilroe Mile figures a stiffer test but hey, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right?

WINNING PRIZE has the potential to be a budding star in the U.S. for trainer Neil Drysdale. The South American import was no secret when he came from Argentina last summer. He was already a three-time Grade 1 winner there in 2012. He surfaced in the U.S. at Del Mar last summer and blasted a fine bunch of optional claimers. That was enough for his connections to ship him to Keeneland for the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile, knowing FULL well that there they would run into Horse of the Year Wise Dan. A fierce storm took that race off the turf onto the drenched synthetic track but they had already shipped so they figured, what the heck, let’s give the footing a whirl. And actually, he didn’t run badly at all, finishing fourth.

But surely that’s not his game. They returned to SoCal and went next in the Grade 2 Citation at Hollywood Park. He set the pace and stayed on gamely to be a sharp third, beaten less than a length by Kilroe foe SILENTIO. That was also at 1 1/16 miles. Shortened up to a mile for the Grade 2 Arcadia he got a dream trip sitting second while REGALLY READY (who he faces again here) sprinted off to a clear lead, reeled in that rival in the lane, took over and drew clear to win smartly, earning a big 105 Beyer. That sets him up ideally for this and he may fall into a similar trip as again REGALLY READY figures to do what he does best – use his speed and try to steal away. If anything WINNING PRIZE has a right to improve and do even better.

But that leads to the lone bad news: he may well go favored here. At least the depth of competition may keep him in the 5-2 to 3-1 range.

Of course, he may actually NEED to do better to win this. SILENTIO, who foiled him in the Citation, has been pointed specifically for this race ever since. Trainer Gary Mandella purposely freshened him with this race in mind. He was an excellent second in this race last year, beaten just a nose by SUGGESTIVE BOY, who is back to defend his title.

Not only does he have that and his Citation win to validate his ability, but prior to the Citation he rallied well to finish third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile, only 1 1/2 lengths behind winner and soon-to-again-be Horse of the Year Wise Dan. In other words, he’s good.

SUGGESTIVE BOY, like WINNING PRIZE, came from Argentina with a gaudy resume (won three straight Grade 1s there in 2011). He brought that form with him, topped off by a game tally in this race last year. Alas, after that he suffered a splint injury and wasn’t seen again for 11 months. He resurfaced in the Grade 2 Arcadia here Feb. 1, sat midpack and finished evenly to be fifth behind WINNING PRIZE.

But he surely needed that race and with that under his belt and three strong works since (including a bullet :59.60 move on turf here Feb. 20) he looks primed for a spirited defense of his title. One scary runner is shipper ZA APPROVAL. After knocking heads with some toughies on the East Coast, he came West last year and they found he’s best on firm footing. Well, they’re back for more and he’ll certainly get that kind of ground here.

REGALLY READY was once a top turf sprinter. He isn’t quick enough these days for that game but has flourished since moving to this mile trip. He couldn’t fend off WINNING PRIZE in the Arcadia but his speed means he’ll almost surely be in control of tempo here and his good third in the Arcadia shows he can carry that speed, thus deserving more than a little respect exotics-wise.

Spot Play

WINNING PRIZE (#6, 7-2) looks to grab control of West coast turf division after G2 score in Arcadia; Nakatani riding the turf well, but barn not going well so demand listed price. - Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 9

Santa Anita Handicap by Marcus Hersh

The morning line, with a 9-5 favorite, a 2-1 second choice, and a 5-2 third choice, views this as a three-horse race, but that’s not how I see it. No disrespect to a wonderful gelding who has put together an admirable career, but I’m approaching the Santa Anita Handicap with the idea that Game on Dude never is getting back to his best form.

I know, I know – Game on Dude was pressured through a decent pace in the San Antonio, and when he started to fold his tent, the jockey wrapped up and saved him for another day. Sorry – not buying that narrative. That pace on that racing surface against that competition has produced Game On Dude romps over and over during his rich past. That he threw in the towel so soon after another Breeders’ Cup flop and a brave Clark that had a one-last-gasp feel to it suggest that real decline has set in now.

That leaves things to Mucho Macho Man and Will Take Charge. No other horse, barring real failure from the top two, can win this race, though among the others, Hear the Ghost might not be fully exposed, and could outrun his odds. He also might hold the key to how this race is going to unfold.

Prime question: What is Gary Stevens going to do on Mucho Macho Man? Does he go for the lead or take a light hold? Game On Dude almost certainly is going forward. Hear The Ghost is second time blinkers with a sharp recent work, and he’s coming out of a fast-paced mile: There’s a strong chance he leaves running, too, and is lapped on Game on Dude from the start.

If that’s how thing shake out, things get a touch tricky for Mucho Macho Man, in my opinion, the reason being that Will Take Charge is a more natural mile-and-a-quarter horse than he. Stevens could be left with no great option. If he goes to the lead and gets caught up in quick pace, Mucho Macho Man might start coming back to Will Take Charge in the final furlong. If he takes back and sits just behind Game on Dude and Hear the Ghost, he has to find a way out to truly get first run on Will Take Charge and not turn into the stretch on close to even terms.

And here’s another thing: Mucho Macho Man is a 6-year-old with 24 career starts, Will Take Charge a 4-year-old with 16 starts. Will Take Charge didn’t become the Will Take Charge he is today until last July. Yes, he lost his last race, but Lea was truly remarkable in the Donn Handicap, and Will Take Charge is almost certainly better suited to 10 furlongs at Santa Anita than nine at Gulfstream. As wonderful as Mucho Macho Man was in the BC Classic, and as easily as he won his only start this year, Will Take Charge is the horse with all the upside and, perhaps, the subtle edges, Saturday – and he’s the likely winner of the Santa Anita Handicap.

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Race 10

Vulnerable Favorite

OLIVER’S TALE (#3, 3-1) has done nothing wrong in 4 starts (1 win, 3 2nds) to warrant being the ML favorite. That being said, he does have yet to beat winners and faces some tough winners here. While he Beyered 100 when breaking his maiden here a year ago his other 3 figs, while nice (75, 92, 88) don’t exactly overwhelm his rivals here and while he did post that big maiden win off a long layoff and returns off a layoff again today you have to be a bit worried that he’s run just 4 times and has 3 significant gaps in his schedule. -Michael Hammersly

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Race 11

Spot Play

ABBEY VALE (#11, 4-1) is making his first start in the U.S., and it’s his first action of any kind since Sept. 29 when he ran 19th of 22 in Ireland Sept. 29. However, he’s worked well for this for Mitchell who does very well with imports. It’s worth noting, too, that Bejarano climbs aboard in a race where he likely had options. He doesn’t face the strongest bunch and may be poised to post a mild surprise first time stateside. -Michael Hammersly

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