Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for March 29, 2014
Race 1 |
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Race 2 |
Spot PlayBELLE OF THE FLEET (#4, 3-1) should make the lead in this turf sprint, and possibly be long gone second start back. On paper, no one runs with her early. -Brad Free
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Race 3 |
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Race 4 |
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Race 5 |
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Race 6 |
Spot PlayMAGIC MARK (#4, 4-1) seeks his third straight after sharp maiden/allowance scores vs. state-breds. His speed figures are improving, he has versatile pressing style and should get a good trip right behind the speed. -Brad Free
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Race 7 |
Spot PlayUNUSUAL HOTTIE (#3, 5-1) had a superb 2013 (3 for 6, 2 of those being SWs). Things haven’t gone so well in 2 starts this year but you can be forgiving – first, she didn’t run badly at all when 4th in a sprint stakes on the hillside course here Jan. 25 when after being slow into stride she ran on well (beaten just 1 3/4 lengths). She then ran in the Grade 2 Buena Vista at a mile on this course Feb. 17 but had a tough draw (post 8), was slow into stride and then had trouble turning for home. Also, the top-3 finishers are all Grade 1-caliber gals. She doesn’t face that kind of power here as Mullins not only drops her but also adds blinkers. That may just be the right combination to get her back on track, and at a price, too. -Michael Hammersly
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Race 8 |
Tokyo City Cup by Michael Hammersly
His Argentine form stamped him a proven stayer, so when EVER RIDER came here for the Grade 2 Breeders’ Cup Marathon Nov. 1 he ended up going off the tepid 4.80-1 favorite. Unfortunately it was a disaster. He prompted the early pace but then retreated and was basically pulled up by rider Gary Stevens. According to Mike Puype, now his trainer, the saddle wasn’t right in the Marathon so Stevens just protected the horse. The 6-year-old added blinkers, stalked the pace in a 1 1/16-mile optional claimer here Jan. 1 and stayed on well to be a good third, just 1 ¾ lengths behind winner and Saturday’s foe AMERICAN BLEND. They then tried turf here March 6. The horse didn’t fare well in two turf tries in Argentina but they opted to give it another go. Oops. With blinkers still on the son of Rider Stripes went far too fast too soon, setting a brisk pace under pressure in the 1 1/8-mile grass race, eventually giving way to fade to eighth (last). Puype is convinced that not only does EVER RIDER not want turf but that is the wrong style for him. So Saturday they go back to what brought him to the U.S. in the first place – going long on dirt. Puype moves him to this marathon 1 1/2-mile trip at which he’s won twice in three tries (ran second in the lone defeat). Wins in Argentina at 1 9/16 miles and 1 3/8 miles stamp him a proven commodity playing this game. Puype also removes the blinkers. This horse has enough natural speed (at least for this type of trip) that he can in the race from the start; he won’t be coming from miles out of it. He must deal with a couple rivals who have beaten him here but there’s a sense of urgency to this move – it’s almost as if he’s being returned to what he does best and if he’s still got ‘it’ he can be a big player. And if he doesn’t have it, well, maybe it’s time to home. But toss that March 6 turf run and toss the BC Marathon and you’re left with a very nice third on this track going shorter than he prefers. That shows he handles this place and there were no ill effects from the BC debacle. He’s also worked in solid, steady fashion for Puype so the feeling here is we may be the best he can be. And you may see that at 6-1 or so. The downside is his best still may not be enough. As noted, a couple of Saturday’s rivals have beaten him before and figure in the exotics picture. BLUESKIESNRAINBOWS is the deserving favorite having finished a smart second in the BC Marathon and then going on to win the Grade 3 Native Diver at BHP and Grade 2 San Pasqual here, both on the front end. He figures on the lead trying to play keep-away once more. That being said, he dueled in the Grade 2 San Antonio here Feb. 8 but gave way readily to finish sixth. He had been earmarked for a possible tilt at the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap but after his fade in the San Antonio those plans were scrapped and he instead has been freshened and pointed for this. The fact he didn’t get a crack at the Big ‘Cap makes you wonder if there were any ill effects from his San Antonio run, and whether he’s the same horse who was so sharp prior. TIZ DYNAMIC comes here sharp and while he’s stepping well up in class here and trying a brand new ballgame distance-wise he has tactical speed to be in it from the start, has current form and being by two-time Grade 1 BC Classic winner Tiznow appears bred to go this long. SEGWAY is intriguing. He’s proven he can handle this 1 1/2-mile trip well (third in his one try at this distance). All his work, including that good third, came on turf so we’re talking about new footing here. But he’s got class (comes out of two Grade 2s) and is bred for dirt: daddy Giant’s Causeway ran second to Tiznow in the Grade 1 BC Classic in his only dirt try, and damsire Seattle Slew only won the Triple Crown. Vulnerable FavoriteBLUESKIESNRAINBOWS (#6, 5-2) is a deserving favorite after a string of strong races including a sharp 2nd in the Grade 2 BC Marathon here Nov. 1. But he dueled and gave way readily in the Grade 2 San Antonio and his fade job was enough that plans for a shot at the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap were scrapped as he instead has been freshened and pointed for this. But could that last dull run and no Big ‘Cap attempt be an indication he’s ‘over the top’? -Michael Hammersly
Spot PlayMAJESTIC HARBOR (#8, 7-2) is a fresh horse third start into a campaign. His recent class and speed figures suit this level, and he gets a five-pound weight break from his key rival. He can “upset” if he stays a mile and a half. -Brad Free
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Race 9 |
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