Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for March 22, 2014
Race 1 |
Closer Looks >> |
Race 2 |
Spot PlayAn early “single,” LA SORELLA (#4, 9-5) should win this turf sprint for 3-year-old maiden fillies. Runner-up in a productive race last out, she projects as lone speed. -Brad Free
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Race 3 |
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Race 4 |
San Luis Rey Stakes by Michael HammerslyEverything here points to a classic European-style race: slow early, fast late. After all, there isn’t much speed signed up here. FIRE WITH FIRE may be the speed, though no one will call him quick. In other words, you’re looking at a small field in which he who possesses the strongest late burst can prevail, because the likely slow pace means he won’t be too far away and have too much work to do. Such a trip may play well for LUCAYAN, who looks to give his trainer Neil Drysdale a sixth win in this race. LUCAYAN is something of a dawdler early, as he routinely leaves himself with a lot to do. Again, the way this race may shape up that won’t be an issue, that his normal early lollygagging won’t put him so far behind. And with a likely slow pace it leaves him closer to the leaders an dif this turns into a quarter mile sprint this guy may possess the best late engine in the field. While VAGABOND SHOES beat him in the Grade 2 San Carlos at 1 1/2 miles Feb. 8, that was not only LUCAYAN’s first start in nearly two months, but he was well back early (11th) while ‘SHOES stalked in seventh. When the real racing began, ‘SHOES was white in chess – he got to move first and with his headstart it was too much to overcome. Besides, LUCAYAN had to pitch out very wide into the lane to commence his run. By that time ‘SHOES had pretty much sealed the deal. Again, today’s likely pace picture may mean LUCAYAN can be JUST behind ‘SHOES early, not a half-dozen lengths behind that foe as was the case early in the San Marcos. LUCAYAN also gets another two furlongs with which to work, and that could be pivotal, too. After all, LUCAYAN nearly caught VAGABOND SHOES when second to that rival in the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap Aug. 24 when ‘SHOES won and LUCAYAN was second but only a half-length separated the two at the wire. LUCAYAN was closing in on ‘SHOES with every stride that day and that was at 1 3/8 miles so today’s added furlong would only seem to play to his favor. VAGABOND SHOES won’t be easy to topple. With Indy Point sidelined there’s little doubt this guy is the best distance turf horse on the West Coast. But as noted above there wasn’t much between these two in the Grade 2 San Marcos and LUCAYAN’s trip didn’t help. So there’s reason to believe the tables could be turned. Another good reason to taking that viewpoint is what figures a significant price difference as ‘SHOES figures to go off around even-money while LUCAYAN may be in the 3-1 range.
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Race 5 |
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Race 6 |
Spot PlayWILLYCONKER (#2, 3-1) is a former Grade 1 winner. The 7yo may not be that horse any longer but he showed there was still plenty of gas in the tank when a dazzling winner for $40K on the BHP sod Dec. 6. That was enough for trainer Guillot to take a big swing – he entered this guy in the Grade 2 San Antonio here Feb. 8. Not only did that mean a big class hike but it was his first try on dirt. Well, things didn’t go so well but he’s back in his element here – back to turf and down in class. And while he’s in for a tag, it’s still a big one ($75K) and still more than what they claimed him for last May 25 ($62,500). -Michael Hammersly Closer Looks >> |
Race 7 |
Spot PlayPASEO ALEGRO (#11, 7-2) was re-claimed by trainer Vann Belvoir from a good win for $8k. He should get a similar front-running/pace-pressing trip. -Brad Free
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Race 8 |
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Race 9 |
Vulnerable FavoriteJUST DANCING (#1, 5-2) has his value cut in half to the $12,500 level, likely the reason he's opened as the favorite here. But they don't give anything away out here and this guy didn't run badly for twice this price March 6 - and now they're willing to part with him for half that price, and less than what they claimed him for a little over 2 months ago ($20,000). Also, his beste work has come routing - we're sprinting today. -Michael Hammersly
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