Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for March 15, 2014
Race 1 |
Spot PlayBERTANE (#7, 6-1) ran better than the line looks in his debut, and drops to maiden-75 second time out. A sibling to second-start maiden winner Big Bane Theory, he is trained by Carla Gaines, whose maidens often improve with a race under their belt. -Brad Free
Vulnerable FavoriteDISTILLERY (#5, 5-2) comes off a sharp 2nd at this level (beaten just a neck) here Feb. 7. That big run came routing, however – today he’s back sprinting and his 3 prior outings, all sprints, weren’t any great shakes. Of course, the move to this level was pivotal, too, but he’s yet to show sprint prowess and he faces a few others who take the same class drop he took last time. -Michael Hammersly
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Race 2 |
Spot PlayMORNING LINE WIZ (#1, 4-1) owner moves this 3yo gelding to the Kathy Walsh barn, shipping down from the Northwest; all three sprints were solid and any improvement off those puts him in the thick of it. - Chuck Kuehhas
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Race 3 |
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Race 4 |
Spot PlayA pick-six single to start the sequence, DANCINGTOTHESTARS (#2, 2-1) drops from open company into a stakes for California-bred fillies and mares. The class of the field, she should score as the favorite. -Brad Free
Spot PlayCOULD BE TROUBLE (#7, 3-1) may prove just that for her foes. The filly flashed ample talent last year but after 2 straight turf wins wasn’t seen for over 7 months. When she did return on this hillside course Jan. 31 she bided her time and finished decently to be 4th. That was an ideal tightener and Miller feels good enough about her to move her back into stakes ranks – and while it’s a tough bunch she’s not facing any monsters. -Michael Hammersly
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Race 5 |
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Race 6 |
Spot PlayMARGOT MACHANCE (#12, 6-1) Euro gets Lasix for stateside debut after going 0 for 4 last year in France; but she finished a length off 3yo monstress Testa Rossi in her debut and three lengths off Royalmania in her most recent, who went on to finish a close up 4th in G1 Marcel Boussac. - Chuck Kuehhas
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Race 7 |
Santa Margarita Stakes by Michael HammerslyFor the most part this group of distaffers has been taking turns at the trough while champion Beholder is away. There’s little separating these; the last few events between them have been determined by a break here and there. A favorable pace. A better trip. Some trouble at a crucial juncture. So in keeping with that theme, after seeing the SoCal’s top distaff distance races in recent months taken by Broken Sword (Grade 2 Bayakoa at Betfair at Hollywood Park), Golden Production (Paseana here), SPELLBOUND (Grade 2 La Canada here) and IOTAPA (Grade 2 Santa Maria here) it appears time for FIFTYSHADESOFHAY to find the spotlight. The 4-year-old daughter of Pulpit had a super 2013 and handled herself well against a superb class of fillies, facing champion Beholder and top-class gals such as Princess of Sylmar and Pure Fun. And she’s had some circumstances work against her in her last three starts, all losses, two of them as the heavy favorite. In the Grade 2 Indiana Oaks at Indiana Downs Oct. 5 she dueled through brisk splits as the 2-5 favorite and paid the price, fading to third. She bobbled significantly at the start of the Grade 2 Bayakoa at Betfair at Hollywood Park as the 1.10-1 favorite to get away very poorly. To her credit she ran on well for second to the sharp Broken Sword. She came here for the Grade 2 La Canada Jan. 19 and again it was early trouble that did her in. She got squeezed back so instead of being forwardly positioned, which is her normal tact, she was well back. Again, to her credit she kept to her task very well, finishing fourth but beaten just a length. A better start could have made the difference. Her trainer Bob Baffert after that decided to skip the Santa Maria and wait for this. She’s worked nicely and best of all she could fall into a great trip. There isn’t much speed signed up here. IOTAPA just won the Santa Maria wire-to-wire and figures to go to the lead again and try to play keep-away. The presence of the quick Argentine distaffer MISS SERENDIPITY may mean more early pressure on IOTAPA, and not a reprise of that nice cozy trip she got in the Santa Maria. Also, LET FAITH ARISE has shown speed on occasion and they don’t figure to just let IOTAPA lollygag out front as she did in the Santa Maria. Of course, with a good start, FIFTYSHADESOFHAY has ample tactical speed. There’s no reason to rush up and duel with IOTAPA, but she can sit just off the lead and save ground until rider Martin Garcia decides to crank up the heat. And if anything Saturday’s longer trip (1 1/8 miles) plays to FIFTYSHADESOFHAY’s favor. Again, it looks like the situation is ripe for this to be her turn. And then they can all start worrying about when Beholder comes back. IOTAPA is a proven commodity and while she led all the way to win the Santa Maria note that’s the only time she’s done so – her other strong races have been from just off the pace. In other words, if, for example, MISS SERENDIPITY sends then IOTAPA will be quite happy to sit off her hip and like FIFTYSHADESOFHAY pounce when her rider, Joe Talamo, sees fit. A strong 1:12.20 6-furlong work here March 10 says she holds her edge. LET FAITH ARISE ran splendidly to be second in the Grade 2 La Canada and Grade 2 Santa Maria. She’s shown ample tactical speed and shown she’ll keep fighting it out, and like IOTAPA has worked strongly since to indicate those two tough losses did not take anything out of her.
Spot PlayThough top choice IOTAPA could be loose on the lead, improving STANWYCK (#6, 6-1) has an upset chance. She broke slowly last time, switches riders and should appreciate this longer distance. Good form, good price. -Brad Free
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Race 8 |
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Race 9 |
Spot PlayTop choice K THIRTY EIGHT is the horse to catch; second preference NEXT BOOK (#5, 6-1) enters with an upset chance. Runner-up in his maiden-30 debut, he gets an optimistic class jump to California-bred maiden special-weight. -Brad Free
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