Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for June 7, 2014

Race 1

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Race 2

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Race 3

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Race 4

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Race 5

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Race 6

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Race 7

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Race 8

Spot Play

ALPHA BULLET (#4, 7-2) has been first or second in all three of his starts and just missed in a turf starter last out when stretching out to a route for the first time; now cut back to a sprint to go down the hill, which would appear to suit him better; fired fresh off a short layoff last out and should do so again, particularly in a turf sprint.– Byron King

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Race 9

Affirmed Stakes by Michael Hammersly

It’s an intriguing race as you have a bunch unproven 3-year-olds trying to take that next step and establish themselves, proving they may well belong in the conversation when talk turns to the big 3-year-old events of the summer.

That’s getting a bit ahead of ourselves here but you have potential here, topped off by FRIENDSWITH K MILL. The son of Flashy Bull has already shown he can compete with quality sophomores. He was no factor when seventh in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby at 46-1, yes, but he then shipped to Churchill Downs and was a solid fifth in the Grade 3 Derby Trial. He was beaten just two lengths by Bayern and Embellishing Bob. Those are quality animals as Bayern (who was DQ’d to second in the Derby Trial) had won an N1X here by 15 lengths Feb. 13 and was third in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. After ‘winning’ the Derby Trial he ran in the Grade 1 Preakness but had a dreadful early trip and was no factor, finishing ninth. Embellishing Bob had easily beaten maidens at the Fair Grounds March 29 before going to the Derby Trial where he hounded Bayern from the start, moved up to challenge that foe into the lane but was unable to get past, finishing second beaten a nose. Of course, Bayern had drifted out, interfering with ‘Bob who otherwise appeared poised to go on by. Regardless, those are two classy 3-year-olds. In fact, they’re two of the favorites in Saturday’s Grade 2 Woody Stephens on the Belmont undercard.

So FRIENDSWITH K MILL’s proximity to those two in the Derby Trial shows his quality as well. It was further validated with FRIENDSWITH K MILL shipped back here for trainer Doug O’Neill for an optional claimer at this distance. That day, under Tyler Baze, who is aboard again Saturday, FRIENDSWITH K MILL bided his time early before unleashing a strong last few furlongs that swept him past his rivals and clear to win easily. It showed he’s the real deal and surely gives O’Neill the confidence to go here.

All that being said, with the bulk of the name 3-year-olds either running elsewhere or simply not in here, FRIENDSWITH K MILL figures to attract plenty of attention. He was even-money in that optional claiming win; something in the vicinity of 5-2 pr 3-1 figures to apply here.

One thing that could keep his price palatable is that while Bob Baffert’s big boys are not here he still unleashes a suitable replacement. CAN THE MAN hinted at significant ability last summer. He won his sprint debut at Del Mar and was immediately chucked into the deep end, the Grade 1 Del Mar Derby. He dueled, took the lead into the lane and stayed on to be an excellent third, beaten just one length (the horse who finished sixth a length or so behind him? Only a little horse you may have heard of – California Chrome).

That was good enough to earn a shot at the Grade 1 FrontRunner here Sept. 28. It was his first route and after dueling he weakened to finish fourth. Baffert opted for a sprint stakes next, the Speakeasy here Oct. 14, and his judgment was affirmed as CAN THE MAN won that nicely. He hasn’t been seen since but everyone knows Baffert’s ability off the bench and four straight bullet works say this guy is doing very nicely. The layoff is less of an issue than it might be with some other trainer. The issue today is the 1 1/16 miles. But with his pedigree there’s no reason he shouldn’t be effective going this far. Question is, will he be effective enough going this far at THIS level off THIS kind of layoff?

There’s no doubt BIG TIRE can go this far. He’s already handled this distance well (second in his two tries). He may also appreciate the class drop. After edging maidens here March 7 he was thrown into the deep end, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, where he ran fifth. He obviously faces no one like the top three (California Chrome, Hoppertunity, Candy Boy) he faced there.

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Race 10

Spot Play

DYSPROSIUM (#6, 7-2) is a scary new face. This son of top grass sire Rock Hard Ten showed ample turf talent in Florida last year and into this year. He makes his first start here after over 3 months off for a trainer who’s superb off the bench. It’s not as if he’s facing any monsters and note he’s a SW so you get some back-class with this guy. -Michael Hammersly

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Race 11

Vulnerable Favorite

SOUTHERN SUNRISE (#7, 5-2) showed talent last year and earlier this year that would pummel these. However, after a smart 2nd here March 6 came a layoff, a drop in for a tag and then a duel-and-fizzle to finish 7th. The layoff off that good March 6 return run was worrisome enough, but tack on the drop in for a tag (they don’t give anything away out here) here April 26 and the way he hit the brakes that day and you have cause for concern, particularly when embracing a short price. Oh, and he’s devalued further today. -Michael Hammersly

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