Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for June 28, 2014
Race 1 Formulator PPs |
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Race 3 Formulator PPs |
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Race 4 Formulator PPs |
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Race 5 Formulator PPs |
G2 Royal Heroine at SA (race 5, post 6:00 p.m. ET) by Marty McGeeAssuming this field of 10 holds together, this filly-mare turf mile should prove to be one of the more competitive stakes of the entire weekend across the country. Judging by her work pattern, we’ll be looking for Sadler to have Moone’s My Name (#6, 9-2) on her toes for her first start in two months. The gray mare previously has run well off an even longer layoff (April-to-Dec. 2013), and with plenty of speed to fire out ahead of her (i.e., #9 Kathleen Rose), Espinoza figures to have her in a comfortable spot to make her customary run. Several others carry similar allure, and they’ll be used in the final play … but others, such as North-Am firsters Habibi (#7) and Dutchessa (#8), seem to find a pretty tough spot for a first continental try. In addition, let’s discard Wishing Gate (#3), given how her form tailed off for Proctor; she’s liable to need one today. The play: Key #6 up/back/sideways in the verticals with these other logical contenders: #1, #5, #9, #10. Closer Looks >> |
Race 6 Formulator PPs |
G1 Triple Bend Analysis By Byron KingSAHARA SKY catches a soft Grade 1 sprint. So while not reflected on paper, to these eyes he is “dropping “in class out of a Grade 2 Churchill Downs on Derby Day - a sprint in which he was seventh. He is a true seven-furlong horse, unlike many of these in the Triple Bend, and he is fond of Santa Anita, where he is five for eight; likely to rebound with a return home. DECLASSIFY has run Beyer Speed Figures of 100 or more in three of four starts, but has never been tested in a stakes race or raced farther than six furlongs. He is talented, but up against it from a seasoning perspective; also at a tactical disadvantage with seemingly a must-send situation with a rail draw. CYCLOMETER just won the Los Angeles, the prep for this race, but going a six-furlong trip that he seems to like better than seven eighths. He won that race in three-horse contest that turned into a match race between him and the outclassed WINE POLICE. Closer Looks >> |
Race 7 Formulator PPs |
G2 Senorita Analysis By Byron KingFAMOUSE ALICE can be given a pass for running fourth last out at Penn National. That marked the first time she had shipped, and after being dull early, she kicked into gear late to finish within a couple lengths of the winner. Now she’s back home at Santa Anita, where she has two seconds and a win in three starts on this course; winning trainer/jockey combo with Tom Proctor and Gary Stevens. MORNING FIX invades from Northern California, where she twice ran quickly on turf in two starts at Golden Gate. She overcame a slow pace to get up in a second-level allowance against older mares last out, albeit with the help of a favorable ground-saving trip. CLENOR was one of the better 2-year-old fillies in California last year, and away until May of this year, returned with a useful runner-up finish in a race down the hill in her first start at age 3; now has a race behind her this year and is back at her best distance of a mile. Closer Looks >> |
Race 8 Formulator PPs |
Spot PlayImperative (#4, 5-1) just won a fine renewal of the Charles Town Classic, pulling off a stunning upset of Game on Dude; now he returns to his home base at Santa Anita and benefits from frontrunners ‘Dude and Fury Kapcori figuring to go at each others’ throats from the start.-Byron King G1 The Gold Cup at Santa Anita By Michael HammerslyIMPERATIVE That has changed. Since the claim, all IMPERATIVE has done is earn over $1.1 million, running second in the Grade 2 San Antonio here Feb. 9 and winning the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic at CT April 19. It’s not just that he won at CT; it was the way he won. The 4-year-old gelding bided his time early, came with a run to get into contention going to the far turn, then unleashed another run to swoop past some talented foes and draw away to win easily. Oh, the two guys right behind him were Grade 1 winners GAME ON DUDE and Moreno so he wasn’t beating up on a bunch of softies. While his San Antonio second (to Blingo) was nice, there was something different at CT. He looked like a new horse, a bigger, badder edition. He didn’t just beat those guys – he trashed them. Right after that his connections said THIS was the target. They freshened him and pointed for this. Sure, taking on GAME ON DUDE in his sandbox is no easy feat but GAME ON DUDE was fifth, well behind IMPERATIVE in the San Antonio so suddenly he’s not invincible here. He came back to easily win the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap but his San Antonio makes you wonder if, possibly, at age 7, he’s not as consistently top-class as we’re used to seeing. Oh, he’ll take some beating to be sure, but odds are GAME ON DUDE isn’t going to improve. That same might not be said for IMPERATIVE. The one drawback here is style: GAME ON DUDE has more speed than IMPERATIVE. Even so, jockey Kent Desormeaux knew that going into the Charles Town Classic but allowed his mount to settle before making his run, so there’s no need to go flying up there. Besides, other speed (Fury Kapcori) may mean it’s no walk in the park up front for GAME ON DUDE. The other nice aspect to IMPERATIVE is that the bandwagon remains fairly light. There are surely those who don’t yet believe, and that’s fine. What that translates to is the money will continue to roll in on GAME ON DUDE, leaving IMPERATIVE probably a distant second choice at a most palatable 5-1or so. If IMPERATIVE wins this then the cat is out of the bag. You won’t get 5-1ish on him again until maybe Breeders’ Cup Classic day. Expect IMPERATIVE to do a redux on his Charles Town Classic, meaning he’ll bide his time early, then use up some fuel to get into contention and if he’s the same horse or has even progressed further since, then he’ll have another gear to try and take it to GAME ON DUDE. Sure, we’re spitting into the wind, tugging on Superman’s cape, but that’s how you get a price and as noted above, should IMPERATIVE beat GAME ON DUDE again then that bird has flown. You won’t get that price again. Best take your swing now. Exotically speaking it’s difficult to envision a scenario which sees GAME ON DUDE not playing a part in the exacta. Then again, we all surely thought that prior to the San Antonio when he wasn’t his former sharp self and finished a lackluster fifth. The good news is he came right back to romp in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap, looking good as ever (117 Beyer) and while IMPERATIVE beat him at CT ‘DUDE was in no way disgraced. He dueled and stayed on well to be a clear second. In other words, his San Antonio run wasn’t a sign he’s done. It was instead, a sign that, yes, ‘DUDE is getting older and may not fire every time but it does not mean his demise is at hand. And his success here (8 for 11) and the fact he was 3-5 against IMPERATIVE at CT and ran well means he’ll get hammered again. If you do wish take a shot against the big guy then maybe CLUBHOUSE RIDE is your alternative. The veteran made a habit of chasing GAME ON DUDE in 2013. Foot ailments set him back but he was fourth to IMPERATIVE and GAME ON DUDE in the Charles Town Classic and then returned here and was a smart winner of the Grade 2 Californian, hinting he was all the way back. Those looking to for a big payoff may use him with IMPERATIVE, leave GAME ON DUDE off their exacta tickets and hope for the best. Closer Looks >> |
Race 9 Formulator PPs |
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Race 10 Formulator PPs |
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