Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for June 21, 2014

Race 1

Closer Looks >>

Race 2

Closer Looks >>

Race 3

Closer Looks >>

Race 4

Vulnerable Favorite

LADY DASH (#4, 2-1) opens as the ML favorite off an improved finish in her 2nd start when she dropped to this $50K maiden claiming level and ran 3rd. That being said, it’s not as if she was a real threat at any point (beaten 5 1/2 lengths) and the Beyer came back light (23). She’s not facing any monsters, yes, but doesn’t appear to have any real significant edge and firster Positivo to her immediate left may be talented. -Michael Hammersly

Closer Looks >>

Race 5

Spot Play

FOREVER JUANITO (#6, 7-2) looks like the real deal and here he drops and returns to his preferred footing. He was a game 2nd in a turf sprint here March 28 before winning the Desert Code, a turf sprint stakes, here May 3. That was enough to earn a shot at the Grade 3 Affirmed on dirt and despite first time on dirt, first time routing with the step up in class he handled himself very nicely, finishing 3rd. That shows he has route ability and he now takes it to what may be his best game: turf. -Michael Hammersly

Closer Looks >>

Race 6

Closer Looks >>

Race 7

Closer Looks >>

Race 8

Summertime Oaks by Michael Hammersly

The gals here, in the former Hollywood Oaks, catch a break. It’s a classic case of while the cat’s away, the mice can play, as all the big gals either recently ran elsewhere or are pointing for something else. Of course, there’s still the likelihood a loaded barn such as Bob Baffert’s can and will still have a say here, and that appears the case with JOJO WARRIOR.

The filly routes for the first time but at first glance that shouldn’t be an issue as there’s ample stamina on the top side. After all, grandsire Empire Maker was a top-class Grade 1 route winner (and seems to pass that one) and her sire is Pioneerof the Nile, who not only was a multiple Grade 1 winner routing but ran second in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby. Yes, it’s mainly sprint blood on the bottom but she’s bred to go at least this far.

Then there’s her running style, which indicates she may handle this trip. She won her sprint debut at Del mar last summer from off the pace. After seven months off she resurfaced in a dirt sprint stakes at Oaklawn April 12 and ran on smartly, finishing second.

She showed more speed than usual in the Grade 3 Eight Belles at Churchill May 2 on the Kentucky Oaks undercard and paid the price, as after dueling early in that 7-furlong even she faded to fifth.

When she came back in the Ms. Preakness at Pimlico May 16, on the Black-Eyed Susan undercard, it was the opposite problem. She got bumped at the start, steadied and got away poorly to be last early. To her credit she kept to her task and passed a number of rivals to finish third, even if she wasn’t a threat (beaten 7 1/2 lengths).

That was still an encouraging run and now she gets her first shot at a route with 4 strong works in tow. With the rail draw she can use her speed to get position and again, it’s no small matter that none of the big girls are lined up against her. The lack of proven form and what appears to be a fairly well-matched bunch may keep her price palatable, too, maybe somewhere in the 3-1/7-2 range.

DELTA FLOWER has won three straight so she obviously has ability. All three were sprints, yes, but there’s ample stamina in her pedigree. Her grandsire is Horse of the Year A. P. Indy and her damsire is El Prado, sire of Grade 1 route winner and stamina sire Medaglia d’ Oro (he produced HOY Rachel Alexandra, for example).

But her main asset is her speed. Those last three wins all came with her right on the pace from start to finish and since those were sprints the fractions here may not be as taxing, meaning she can be right on the lead and dare them to come and get her. She’s worked strongly of late as well.

ARETHUSA will appreciate not running into the likes of Streaming, Taste Like Candy, Untapable, Fashion Plate, Ria Antonia and Stopchargingmaria, gals who beat her in her last four outings. She doesn’t face that kind of power here. That being said, her lack of speed routinely puts her behind the eight-ball tactically and means she needs all the breaks in terms of pace and traffic. But if she gets her pace and gets clear sailing she’s shown she’s not that far behind the big girls, which is more than has been proven by her rivals here. Still, she can certainly run on for a piece of the exotics at the very least.

Closer Looks >>

Race 9

Closer Looks >>