Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for June 14, 2014

Race 1

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Race 2

Vulnerable Favorite

LADY NOW (#6, 5-2) opens as the ML favorite likely based on the fact she takes the biggest drop in the game (straight maiden to maiden claiming) and has been working very well at BSR. That being said, she hasn’t been seen in nearly 15 months, a long layoff to overcome. Her form was spotty at best, too, so that, coupled with the layoff makes taking a short price a risky proposition. -Michael Hammersly

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Race 3

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Race 4

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Race 5

Spot Play

CIRCA’SGOLDENGEAR (#6, 6-1) has been facing – and holding his own – against better horses. The veteran drops off a solid 4th, beaten just 2 lengths, behind A Toast to You (who shows up in a tough turf sprint stakes, the Albany, at GG today). It’s been a while since he won but the drop helps, he’s won down the hill and should get an ample pace to chase. He’s also been working very nicely for trainer Heap who quietly has had a terrific meet (5 for first 10, 50%). -Michael Hammersly

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Race 6

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Race 7

Shoemaker Mile Stakes by Michael Hammersly

A terrific renewal as the two best turf milers on the West Coast, OBVIOUSLY and WINNING PRIZE knock heads. But this is by no means a two-horse race. While those two may be the most accomplished and sharpest they might also compromise one another. After all, OBVIOUSLY’s game is speed. Lots of it. The WINNING PRIZE people know this and they’re almost surely not going to let him just go out front and lollygag up there and gallop the rest of them into the ground. WINNING PRIZE has ample speed himself. Oh, he’s likely not quite as quick as OBVIOUSLY but he has enough to keep that guy honest. What it may mean is OBVIOUSLY sets a fast, fast pace, as is his wont, with WINNING PRIZE in close pursuit. And WINNING PRIZE may make an early run at OBVIOUSLY to take the race to him. It may also be impactful that PULPIT'S EXPRESS has plenty of speed as well, and likely doesn't figure to just lie down and hand OBVIOUSLY an easy lead.

That clash between OBVIOUSLY and WINNING PRIZE is mouthwatering to be sure but what it may also lead to is a set-up for someone else. JACK MILTON hinted at big-time ability for trainer Todd Pletcher last year as a 3-year-old, finishing third in such strong races as the Grade 2 Virginia Derby, Grade 1 Secretariat and Grade 1 Jamaica. He shipped West for the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby but didn’t show the same pizzazz, finishing sixth to top-class Seek Again. Could be by that point he was ‘over the top’.

Freshened he came back to romp in a nice optional claimer at Churchill May 1. But that wasn’t the race that caught the eye. He came back in the Grade 3 Poker at a mile on turf at Belmont May 26. He bided his time early under Javier Castellano and then powered past his rivals to win going away by 2 3/4 lengths. Not only was it visually impressive but it was impressive on paper as well: he got a heady 104 Beyer Speed Figure. In his wake that day was a proven Grade 1 miler in Za Approval, who JACK left in his dust some 4 3/4 lengths back in third.

Again, while JACK MILTON had always been a nice horse, now he looked like a REAL nice horse. He’ll need every bit of that to deal with OBVIOUSLY and WINNING PRIZE, who may both rank only behind two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan as the game’s top turf milers. But again, he could fall into a great trip and with those two attracting serious money his odds figure quite appealing, maybe in the 9-2/5-1 range.

Pletcher is no dummy. He knew who he’d be running against here. So, the fact he opted to ship is a big thumbs-up. After all, he could have stayed back east and run in last Sunday’s Grade 2 Monmouth Stakes or stayed in New York and pointed for mile turf races like the Manila or Forbidden Apple, or thought about the Grade 2 Firecracker at Churchill Downs July 4 week. So, the fact he put this guy on a plane, sent him here to run against the best of the West playing this game speaks of optimism.

It’s hard to imagine OBVIOUSLY and WINNING PRIZE not running well. They’re terrific animals but if they get too preoccupied with one another JACK MILTON could catch them napping. Even so, those two figure prominently all the way around.

TOM’S TRIBUTE couldn’t handle WINNING PRIZE in the Grade 2 Arcadia (second) and Grade 1 Kilroe Mile (seventh) but he came back in the Thunder Road April 6 with a demonstrative win, hinting he may well be up to the challenge. He figures to lag back and make a big run and could be involved in the final furlong.

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Race 8

Vanity Stakes by Randy Goulding

LET FAITH ARISE looks like the one to beat with two wins in her last three races including a gutsy score in the Grade 1 Santa Margarita in her only try going this distance. She certainly wasn’t disgraced in her loss in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom and we found out how good the winner Close Hatches is when she came back to beat Princess of Sylmar and Beholder in the Ogden Phipps. On Fire Baby, second, also came back to win the Grade 1 La Troienne at Churchill. Let Faith Arise is clearly the best of the locals and should get a nice trip from a stalking position.

Since he also trains Close Hatches it made a lot of sense for Mott to ship GRACE HALL from the east coast in order to avoid her stablemate Grace Hall ran okay when she ran here in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic as a 3-year-old in 2012 and she is coming off a big effort in her first start in more than a year in the Grade 2 Ruffian. She only started twice last year, though, and she hasn’t won anything since she romped in the Grade 2 Indiana Oaks prior to finishing fourth in the Ladies Classic. Mott has excellent numbers with horses coming back for a second start following a layoff. However, being a bit picky, he is just 1/8 with horses coming back for a second start following a layoff in a Grade Stakes that were also going from a sprint to a route. Obviously there is plenty of back class here and if she brings her best stuff she should be right there.

SCHERZINGER is worth considering at what should be a square price. She really hasn’t run a bad race on dirt or Polytrack and her only loss on this surface came in just her second start. She didn’t figure to catch Midnight Lucky in the Grade 1 Humana Distaff but she ran a solid race to finish third. The Formulator stat of the day is Hollendorfer’s record with horses stretching out for the first time in Graded Stakes – 30 percent over the past five years and it’s 33 percent when they are going long for the first time in a Grade 1. Her dam won two routes and her 412 Tomlinson Figure for the distance is the highest in the field so she just might thrive going around two turns.

The shape of the race should work for both Let Faith Arise and Grace Hall but there are some questions that Grace Hall needs to answer and there is a good chance she will be an underlay. That could make Let Faith Arise a fair price so we’ll bet her to win if she’s above her morning line odds of 2-1. Grace Hall and Scherzinger will be the key horses in the exotics and also on some multiple race tickets.

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Race 9

Spot Play

TANGELO (#4, 6-1) turned in a promising first-out effort, finishing a close third in a race in which the winner returned to win; barn has good second-out stats, suggesting this one should move forward off the race. - Byron King

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