Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for January 25, 2014

Race 1

Spot Play

Dropper SUDDEN RUMOR (#7, 6-1) drops from open company to state-breds and switches to dirt. He can upset second start back following a BTL comeback. -Brad Free

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Race 2

Spot Play

WOODMANS LUCK (#2, 7-2) defeated a better field last time, he drops into a race for statebreds, and can tag them late. -Brad Free

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Race 3

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Race 4

Santa Monica Stakes by Michael Hammersly

Obviously we’re not going out on a limb here by touting TEDDY’S PROMISE as the one to beat in this 7-furlong event. After all, she won this last year and the really the only horse she hasn’t been able to threaten playing this type of game is two-time distaff sprint champion Groupie Doll, who would likely humble this field at even half-strength.

But there might be a way to turn an even-money shot into a 5-1 exacta payoff, and that’s if you can get the right outsider to take the second spot. Oh, there’s little reason to believe TEDDY’S PROMISE will be beaten here. Not only does she love this track (5 for 10 here) but is proven at the trip (3 wins) and comes off a smart stakes won at BHP Dec. 15. That day she beat Judy in Disguise back into second fairly easily. That gal went into that Dec. 15 stakes on the strength of a sharp second to Groupie Doll in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint here Nov. 2 so she wasn’t going into that BHP race as some pipedream. She was a proven commodity. And yet TEDDY’S PROMISE handled her easily.

There really isn’t anyone even as tough as ‘Judy’ in here so on paper TEDDY’S PROMISE holds all the aces. And if that’s the way it plays out on the track then the trick is to find who can run second.

Well, SCHERZINGER may fit the bill. The daughter of Tiz Wonderful has won three of her last four and that includes two wins in two starts over THIS track. The lone loss in that stretch came the only time she’s ever tried turf. Between not dealing with the footing and then having a sluggish start she was no factor, so draw a line through that race. She was freshened and came back firing, rallying to win here Jan. 2.

Obviously she’s quite comfortable on this footing and while this marks her first 7-furlong try the way she’s won going 6 furlongs bodes very well for handling the added furlong. Also, that Jan. 2 win earned a big career-top Beyer (96), which puts her right in TEDDY’S PROMISE’s neighborhood. In other words, if that gal fires that big again or improves even slightly, well, that means ‘TEDDY’ has little if any margin for error. Other possibilities underneath in the exacta are SOCIALBUG, who set the pace before finishing second to SCHERZINGER in that aforementioned Jan. 2 race here. Not only was that a good run for the daughter of 2-time Horse of the Year Curlin, but it was her first run in three months so she can surely improve. And with her speed she may be able to dictate things from the start.

HEIR KITTY is noteworthy as she goes for a third straight win. After beating some nice optional claimers at BHP Nov. 29 she rallied to beat fellow 3-year-old fillies in the Grade 1 La Brea here Dec. 26. While she goes from a Grade 1 to a Grade 3 it may still be a class hike as she goes from 3-year-olds only to facing elders. But it’s obvious she’s doing well, likes it here and the La Brea came at this same 7-furlong trip.

Another of interest is LEXINGTON PEARL. The 5-year-old mare invades from Florida where she had good results but was always facing lesser. However, she comes here for new trainer Peter Miller, off a nice second which has been flattered (the 3 to exit that race so far ALL won their next starts), she gets blinkers, has worked well and may be at her best at this trip. It’s a hefty step up in class but hey, that’s why you’ll get double-digit odds, right?

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Race 5

Vulnerable Favorite

UNUSUAL HOTTIE (#8, 7-2) certainly merits ample respect as a multiple SW but for all her success (6 grass wins) none of it has come down the hill. She has just one 3rd from 3 tries on this hillside course so while her talent is assured this may not be her best game. She’s been freshened since a dull run (10th) on this course in the Grade 3 Sen. Ken Maddy Nov. 2. This spot isn’t as tough but again, her mediocre hillside form gives some cause for pause, particularly if her price stays deflated. -Michael Hammersly

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Race 6

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Race 7

Spot Play

Claimed by Jeff Mullins off a wide trip, WATER ISSUES (#11, 20-1) can outrun her high odds if she can somehow save ground in this turf-route scramble. -Brad Free

WATER ISSUES (#11, 20-1) lost her 2 turf starts and has a brutal post but there’s still cause for optimism. After all, she rallied nicely to be 2nd in her first turf start, against BOYS no less, at BHP Dec. 15. She then had a wide trip and flattened out as the favorite for $50K on turf here Jan. 10 when fading to 6th but Mullins not only saw fit to claim her but brings her back in a tougher spot like this, and it’s also a spot where he CAN’T lose her via another claim. She’s not facing any turf monsters here and that last start when she ran 6th and today’s tough post will keep your price buoyed. -Michael Hammersly

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Race 8

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Race 7

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Race 10

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