Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for January 19, 2014

Race 1

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Race 2

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Race 3

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Race 4

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Race 5

Spot Play

INDECISE (#8, 9-2) stands out after a bad-trip comeback. The pace was slow; she was buried in traffic through the far turn and into the lane. She trained well since, and crossed the wire first two previous starts on the SA turf. -Brad Free

Vulnerable Favorite

MY GI GI (#2, 3-1) may go off a lukewarm favorite on the strength of numerous solid races vs. much tougher. In fact, she comes into this off 11 straight graded stakes outings. Trouble is, that hasn’t helped her build a habit of winning – her last victory came in a Grade 2 at BHP in June 2009. Yes, the drop helps, but it attracts money and it’s not as if she’s facing a bunch of patsies, either. -Michael Hammersly

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Race 6

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Race 7

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Race 8

La Canada Stakes by Michael Hamemersly

Last year’s 3-year-old filly crop was brutally tough – Beholder, Princess of Sylmar, Unlimited Budget, Dreaming of Julia, Cross Hatches, Emollient, Midnight Lucky. Yeesh. Well, FIFTYSHADESOFHAY knocked heads with a few of those, and more often than not held her own so her quality is affirmed. While she must again deal with a razor-sharp BROKEN SWORD, who beat her in BHP’s Grade 2 Bayakoa last month, there is reason to believe FIFTYSHADESOFHAY can turn the tables.

First, the Bayakoa, obviously, was run on synthetic footing. Yes, FIFTYSHADESOFHAY handles it well, but she seems better on dirt (2nd in the Grade 1 Las Virgenes, 3rd in Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks, won the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan, won the Grade 3 Iowa Oaks, 2nd in the Grade 1 Alabama). She ran third in the Grade 2 Indiana Oaks at IND Oct. 5 but that came in the slop. Again, as with synthetic footing she handles the goo; it’s just not her preferred game. And, when she ran into BROKEN SWORD in the Bayakoa she was running into a gal who was in peak form and who ADORES synthetic footing. Toss in a sluggish start, which left her with far too much to do, and you have the recipe for defeat, which is just what happened as ‘SWORD ran off early and dominated, leaving her foes in her wake, beating ‘HAY by 4 1/4 lengths.

However, this situation is different. We’re not on synthetic ground this time. Yes, BROKEN SWORD romped in her only dirt start (won her sprint debut at PLN in July 2012 by 11 lengths) so she handles this ground, too, but again she may not flourish on it quite as well as she does on synthetic.

BROKEN SWORD ran off and hid in the Bayakoa but a clean break by FIFTYSHADESOFHAY might not have allowed that. After all, FIFTYSHADESOFHAY has ample tactical speed to stalk. Actually, she’s versatile enough to do whatever her rider needs. In the Bayakoa, however, that bad start took away her options. She’s worked in solid fashion since and now certainly her rider, Mike Smith, and her trainer, Bob Baffert, are fully aware it’s BROKEN SWORD they have to beat, so as long as she breaks well it’s difficult to believe she’ll be sitting well back while BROKEN SWORD is just lollygagging up front. That would be a disaster again.

From a playing standpoint there’s another reason to look her way. In the Bayakoa FIFTYSHADESOFHAY was sent off the even-money favorite, while BROKEN SWORD was let go at a generous 7.90-1. There’s no way ‘SWORD is going to be that kind of price here. In fact, ‘SWORD almost surely figures to be favored, maybe in the 7-5 range. That means FIFTYSHADESOFHAY could float up to 2-1 or so. Tactically it figures to be BROKEN SWORD making the pace, FIFTYSHADESOFHAY in close pursuit and those aforementioned changes (footing, a better start) may be just what the doctor ordered for ‘HAY to gain her revenge.

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Race 9

Spot Play

BLUSHING MARTHA (#10, 6-1) can post an upset after being blocked in deep stretch last time. She is rounding into form, and gets a beneficial rider switch while moving to a desirable outside post. -Brad Free

Spot Play

FOUR BETTER (#8, 6-1) hasn’t been seen since June 6 when 6th in a $25K turf sprint at BHP. However, trainer Miller is superb off a long layoff like this (6 for last 19, 32%). He claimed her the race prior and after the long layoff she’s worked well for her return. It’s most encouraging Miller brings her back WITHOUT a tag attached and she has the speed and versatility to give her ride options. The layoff and a couple so-so outings preceding it should help keep your price palatable. -Michael Hammersly

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