Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for February 16, 2014
Race 1 |
Spot PlayAPOSTLE PAUL (#3, 5-1) has had plenty of chances to be sure (13) but if you focus on just his work here things look much, much better. He’s finished second four times, three of those on this course and at this distance. After a couple so-so outings at BHP in the fall (ran fifth in each) he returned here Jan. 16 and after biding his time early finished full of run to just miss, finishing second beaten a nose. It’s apparent THIS is the place he likes best and maybe it’s finally his turn. He’s worked well since and those numerous failures may mean his price stays palatable. - Michael Hammersly Closer Looks >> |
Race 2 |
Spot PlayPRIVATE BOUNTY (#9, 8-1) had trouble both starts this meet, but moves from inside to outside in a race that sets up for his closing style. -Brad Free
Vulnerable FavoriteGAL HAS TO LIKE IT (#1, 5-2) plummets in class off 2 decent outings, hence the reason he’ll likely go favored here. But while that class move may be seen as a good thing it can also be turned on its head and viewed negatively. After all, they don’t give anything away out here so suddenly going from $20K to $8K is worrisome. Also, as noted, he didn’t run badly at all in those last 2 starts vs. much more expensive and now they’re willing to drop him to the bottom. Tactically there may be an issue as well He has speed, yes, but there’s other speed signed up here, too. - Michael Hammersly
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Race 3 |
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Race 4 |
AWESOME INDY (#4, 3-1) Layoff might well have done this 6yo gelding some good, as he returns in a winnable spot when retaining Talamo and taking a subtle drop into these N2L ranks. October effort over the dirt worth overlooking, as his first-ever outing over the SA surface was pretty nice; fresh, fit, primed. – Marty McGee
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Race 5 |
San Vicente Stakes by Michael HammerslyThey thought enough of KOBE’S BACK to debut him in the Willard Proctor at BHP last June 15 and the colt, who cost a pretty penny at auction ($480K last March) responded. Despite a lousy start to give the others a headstart he bided his time and powered home to win going away. Alas, some ailments then tossed him to the curb for a few months and while he lost his next two starts you can be forgiving. The first loss came in the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue at BHP when after five months off he was slow into stride again but finished with good energy for second. Trouble is, he ran into soon-to-be juvenile champ Shared Believe and was no threat to that foe, finishing 7 3/4 lengths behind that runner, while another 4 3/4 lengths clear of the others. But again, that was also his first start in quite a while. It seemed to set him up well for another crack at Shared Belief in the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity there Dec. 14. Oops. The notes to his trip read as if they were written by Stephen King. It was a complete disaster. First, he had a brutal post (No. 12). Then came a sluggish start, he got shuffled out wide and clipped a rival’s heels going to the far turn. After that he seemed to say, ‘Screw it’, and packed it in, finishing tenth far behind Shared Belief (27 3/4 lengths). The good news, though, is he’s continued to work well since and while this marks his first start on dirt all those big recent works (including two bullets) have come on this dirt track, so he seems to handle this place just fine. He returns to sprinting, and at this stage of the game maybe he’s best suited as a late-running sprinter instead of a Derby horse. No shame in that. He also doesn’t face anyone like the top few he chased in the CashCall Futurity. So, while some in here may boast an edge Beyerwise, this guy has still flashed big-time ability and had excuses in his last two losses. Of course, all of the factors in his favor here can also be interpreted to mean it’s time to put up or shut up. But some super recent works and no monsters in the gate lined up against him say today’s his day. There are also exotics to ponder. While KOBE’S BACK looks like the right horse to key, the underneath spot could be taken by any of a number of foes. CHERUBIM, son of top-class sprinter Henny Hughes, didn’t do much in his debut at BHP Nov. 24 but he came here to dirt Dec. 28, dueled and drew off to win for fun, earning a big Beyer (90). Not only did runner-up Chelios come right back to win, but third finisher Pimpernel won here last wee as well. PAPA TURF is certainly a candidate to fill out the exacta as well. While he was fourth, well behind KOBE’S BACK in the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue Nov. 10 (6 1/2 lengths) he looks like a much better horse on THIS (dirt) footing. After all, toss his two synthetic track tries and you’re left with three dirt starts, all here, for a win (82 Beyer), third (82 Beyer) and second (86 Beyer). That last may be the best as he chased home the highly promising Baffert runner Indianapolis (was targeting this before he got sick, forcing him to miss this race). Toss in a strong :47.40 work here Feb. 10 to indicate he’s doing well and he’s certainly one of the ones.
Spot PlayCHERUBIM (#5, 5-2) ran fast (90 Beyer) defeating maidens including a pair that won subsequent starts. CHERUBIM can control the pace, and be long gone. -Brad Free Closer Looks >> |
Race 6 |
Spot PlayNo knocks on AUTUMN VIEW, but COCONUT CREAM PIE (#5, 6-1) could upset. She always seemed best as a closing sprinter, and finally shortens up. -Brad Free
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Race 7 |
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Race 8 |
Spot PlayJOURNEY ON (#5, 3-1) Cal-bred filly gave what she could in that rugged down-the-hill Sunshine Millions race but the pace took its toll, and she was geared down in the final yards. And that came after she butted heads with Grade 1 fillies in the La Brea. Now comes a much more realistic spot as she stretches out to 9 furlongs while adding Talamo, who figures to get her into galloping mode before she kicks on for home with far more left in the tank. – Marty McGee
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Race 9 |
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